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ATP's quick horse by horse breakedown for the Derby
1. Arch Arch Arch (10-1)- has improved considerably over the last three races including a driving score in the arkansas derby, jockey is married to the trainer, not one of the best jocks in the race but alright, will have to deal with the dreaded one hole, thus will be sitting in the stall for the others to load for a long time and will be meeting the rail fairly fast, good news is he will be coming from behind to it shouldnt be too much of a detriment, should be bred to get the distance and thought his one effort on an off track was poor his breeding indicates a wet track shouldnt be a problem, at the end of the day if the pace is brisk his chances improve drastically, expect him to be coming late.
2. Brilliant Speed (30-1)- likely to be more favorably biased here since i drew this guy in my pool, realistically has fun on conventional dirt twice, many moons ago and was dreadful, but has been progressing well in 2011 including a solid closing finish to win the toyota Bluegrass last time at 11/8 and the way he closed would indicate that the distance will not be the problem, it will be can he handle the dirt? So many of his efforts have been run on grass, if the track comes up wet it may translate a bit better to what you see when on the grass in which case he may be a look at long odds, but still doubt hes really in the hunt to win this.
3. Twice the Appeal (20-1)- Linesmaker Mike Battaglia even admitted this horse would have been listed at 50-1 were it not for jockey Calvin Borel, you throw him on a horse at churchill downs and in particular the derby and the odds reduce drastically, he finds a horse that likes to be off the pace and will be saving ground all the way from this post, noticed early odds have him at 8-1 and I nearly threwup, maybe ill choke myself tommorrow but im going to let this guy beat me, I cannot endorse a horse that has beaten absolutely nothing, true Plum Pretty, winner of todays Oaks won last time out down at Sunland Park but it was significantly faster than Twice the Appeal, the stupid thing is if it comes up wet this ones pedigree should benefit but the distance is a major stretch for him, I will pass on the horse that took 7 times to break his maiden.
4. Stay Thirsty (30-1)- Mike Repole though trying to keep a cool head has to be feeling the pain, even with this horse in, the loss of uncle mo takes away any shot of him realistically winning it this year, This guy has only run twice this year and was simply horrendous in the florida derby beaten 17lengths to Dialed In, the line shows "Through after 1/2". If that is the case then how the hell can he handle the mile and a quarter? Answer he cant, ill pass.
5. Decisive Moment (30-1)- First question, who the hell is the jockey Kerwin Clark? Doesnt really matter, you could put Jerry Baily on this horse and its obvious that hes going to the lead and will be surrendering it somewhere down the backside and will likely finish last, Simply no distance or off track pedigree to speak of, if you bet this one you may as well enjoy burning money.
6. Comma to the Top (30-1)- first off there will be controversy if this guy were to win as OTB suspended betting on him in the futures pool, and why if hes here? Just like #5 the game will be speed, especially with P Val coming in to ride from california, progressed significantly in the Santa anita derby but has yet to win in 2011, has no pedigree to get the distance, has never run outside of california nor has any works outside of california, loses Nakatani to Nehro, just seems far fetched to believe that he will be around late with all the speed in this race and the expected dual with the foe just inside of him.
7. Pants on Fire (20-1)- Jockey Rosie Napravnik will attempt to be the first female to win the derby, ran 2nd in the Oaks race today with a quality ride, drew well enough that she should be sitting just off of the #5,6 from the start, he dug in gamely in the Lousiana Derby to hold off an oncoming Nehro, Bred to love the wetness, aired by 7 lengths in only off track start, Just worry slightly that she may take first run on the speed and will be tracked intently by the other neighbors, and the distance has got to a least be a bit of a concern, an extra eighth of a mile is not to the advantage of this horse, hes only 2-8 and it seems like a lot of things would have to go wrong with others for him to actually step up and steal this.
8. Dialed In (4-1)- I just dont see it, i mean the form is right here looking at me, 3 for 4 in the winners circle, an off the pace style in a race filled with speed, nick zito at the command with top churchill jock Leparoux, coming off the florida derby win and I still do not endorse this guy. He had an amazing pace to close into and just narrowly beat Shakleford in that derby, two back went off 1-5 and didnt get it done, for some reason didnt work out at churchill. Will he be coming? sure but what exactly has this guy beaten? I mean he hasnt faced anything, its like playing the kansas city royals on a regular basis and the public is going to swoon in on him especially with MO out like hes got to be in all exotics and i simply disagree, go ahead and beat me.
9. Derby Kitten (30-1)- Horse is lucky to be in this race, were it not for one late defection wouldnt have made the 20 horse field, theres just nothing to like here other than he won his last start, but of course it was over the poly garbage, the prior 5 starts were all over the lawn where he was facing significantly lesser competition, Hes simply thrown in so many clunkers and it took him 7 times to break his maiden, only effort over the dirt he was beaten nearly 30 lengths, unless your favorite number is nine, your best to leave him off the ticket with absolutly zero pedigree for distance or an off track.
10. Twinspired (30-1)- Nearly the same boat as the 9, he likes to come from midpack but not be far behind, in this case he will be farther back then he would probably like, nearly upset the field in the bluegrass but that was such a funky race where he raced near the lead and there was no pace whatsoever, another that significantly lacks in the pedigree to get the distance and hasnt been running on dirt, ran his worst career race the one time on dirt, why would he run better against the best in the country?
11. Master of Hounds (30-1)- This longshot really intrigues me, who really knows what he has been running against in Europe, all I can see is that the overall race grades have improved progressively and has run light, only one start this year back in march in the UAE Derby (2mill dollar race) against a large field of 14 and missed by only a nose at 1 3/16 nearly the 1 1/4 derby distance. He ran here at churchill once last year over the grass and ran 6th but beaten only 3 lengths in a race where Soldat ran 2nd and he was steadied and fanned wide in that effort, he attracts a tremendous jockey in Garrett Gomez for European invading trainer Aiden Obrien, hes only 1 for 7 in finding the winners circle but merits a strong look with solid distance and and off track pedigree.
12. Santiva (30-1)- Didnt run well on the poly in last where he was sent off the fav and dwindled to 9th in a race where he lacked room, throw that out and you find a horse that ran 2nd to mucho macho man and was swung wide and pressed the pace, three back he won on this strip with this jock Brigmohan, if you go even further back you see that he doesnt have to be right near the front, he can be a mid-pack threat, a win and place in both dirt efforts, has enough pedigree to believe he could shock this field on his best day.
13. Mucho Macho Man (12-1)- A whole lotta ones twos and threes across his stat-sheet and drilled well in the slop, the bottom line I feel with this guy is that he comes when he should be he hangs, doesnt seem to have the knockout punch that is neccessary to take this race, had simply no excuse for not catching pants on fire in the La Derby, his line says outfinished, The distance pedigree does not look appealing, even though the speed figures are good, Im not endorsing for the female trainer Ritvo.
14. Shackleford (12-1)- Where did that last effort in the Florida Derby come from? 68-1 bomber and he took to the lead in sizzling fractions and nearly stole it, maybe hes had time to recover from that but I wonder if he topped out in that race, two back at the same track and distance it was one of the poorest performances and derby entrant shows on paper, somewhat concerned with the field sizes that he has been facing, he will want to track somwhere in the top 5 throughout and will likely be one of the first ones to push the issue down the backside and that could be a problem, jockey Jesus needs to time his move to precision because I just cannot see him stealing away here, the distance is going to kill him turning for home.
15. Midnight Interlude (10-1)- have the sick feeling that this is the one that im going to leave off the ticket and Baffert will take this along with the Oaks today and just make me puke. Very lightly races, didnt run at the age of 2, and im not sure if any derby winner can say that, broke maiden in 3rd start at odds on then quickly bolted up the class ladder to the santa anita derby and got it done at 14-1 in a lightning fast time, somewhat of a concern that he was able to allow #6 Comma to the top do all the dirty work and then just pounced on a weak rabbit late, there really wasnt much in that race; however, he did drill a bullet over the slop here at churchill on the 2nd, he also aired by 8 over the off track but once again vs nothing, the distance is a slight concern, several others have less to be worried about there, I really think he may get some dirt in his face in this field and wont be as close to the leaders as usual and it may hurt him.
16. Animal Kingdom (30-1)- This guy comes in after only 4 career starts and hes done nothing but run on grass and synthetics, he won the grade 3 spiral at turfway over decisive moment and twinspired, whoopie. Jockey Johnny Velazquez picks up the mount after Uncle Mo scratched and listed rider Robby Albarado had a horse kick him in the face two days ago, distance doesnt stand to be a problem but speed and seasoning does, i have to pass.
17. Soldat (12-1)- The only horse I took in a futures bet, really hasnt sizzled the way I had hoped, that last effort in the florida derby nearly made me tear up my ticket for this, regressed horribly; however, he was stuck on the rail and failed to make the lead allowing dirt to collect on him, in this spot he wont have to be on the lead but from this starting slot should be gunned out without much concern of getting trapped, the great news is that if the track is a pon, he is simply going to eat it up, crusing by 11 over a sloppy strip three back, along with two other early career placings in the slop, if you can excuse that last effort this guy would be one of the favorites in here.
19. Nehro (6-1)- my darling for this race, dont make me look stupid! Didnt win either of last two races but lost both by a neck in hard charging fashion, one on the rail and the last charging on the outside where i expect him to be coming from at some point here, his figures have improved lightyears since he has moved up the classladder and had some solid pace to shoot at, if you look back at the Arkansas Derby he was better than ArchArchArch just he had gotten first jump on him, if you add another eighth of a mile to that race like the derby distance he flat out inhales him, had he gotten that distance there I guarantee he would have been the Kentucky Derby favorite here, jockey corey nakatani gets a chance to erase some of his demons and it will be the Todd Pletcher undertudy Steve Ausmussen as the training winner here, has faced nothing but huge fields his entire career so that will not be a problem and the post since he wont be leaving for position will not be an issue either, actually the scratch of Mo and knowing Soldat just inside of him is gunning will make it easy to just slide to the rail, Tremendous off track pedigree and distance will certainly not be a problem, now dont make me look like a fool!
20. Watch me Go (50-1) just save your money, if he wins ill eat a can of spam, horrendous post, no real positive things to say really, beaten big time in last and now stuck way outside, watch me go.....straight to the rear.
Overall Prediction: 19 Nehro over these 6 horses in no order: 1 Arch Arch Arch, 2 Brilliant Speed, 7 Pants on Fire, 11 Master of HOunds, 12 Santiva, 17 Soldat
gl to everyone
BigDan gave ATP123 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by bringdownthehous
