Instead of coming up with a early Derby pick, I thought it would be easier to give out a reason why each horse will not win the Run for the Roses.
I will be right in 19 of these 20 comments, or 95%. Hey, that’s a good number.
(Horses listed in order of graded earnings along with April 18 prices offered at Wynn in Las Vegas) Go to Bodog.com to see and wager on current Kentucky Derby odds.
1. Uncle Mo $1,360,000 (6/1)
The 2010 champion two-year-old came out of his disappointing third place finish with a gastrointestinal infection. I do not know if the colt or his trainer is ingesting more Mylanta, but this is not the way to come up to the Kentucky Derby. Todd, don’t light a match anywhere near this colt over the next eleven days. A farting horse is great stuff on You Tube, not so much on NBC on May 7.
2. Dialed In $840,000 (4/1)
The likely Derby favorite is going to have to pass more than a dozen horses to get to the front, and his highest Beyer to date is a 93. Does that sound like a Derby winner? I’m thinking he cracks the record of highest priced favorite, beating the 6.3/1 odds set last year by Lookin At Lucky. He has to be looking good and lucky on Derby Day. He seems more like a dial up connection than DSL.
3. Archarcharch $780,000 (12/1)
He could not catch The Factor two back in the Rebel, but sure closed well to win the Arkansas Derby, coming from more than a dozen lengths back. He will be saddled by a guy they call Jinks, and no Jinks has ever won the Run for the Roses. We have had a Laz, Sunny Jim, Max, and Lucien, but no Jinks.
4. Comma to the Top $671,000 (50/1) OUT OF DERBY
If the Derby was run over carpet fibers and ground up rubber balls I might give him a shot. He is 0 for 2 on conventional dirt in his career. Let’s give him a big fat asterisk instead of that comma.
5. Toby’s Corner $625,000 (16/1)
He beat Uncle Mo in the Wood and we had him as my top pick, returning a nice $19.40 for the upset win. We also backed him in the Whirlaway and got back $11.60. Can a horse that has only cracked a 90+ Beyer once in his career win the Derby? His dad won the Wood by 17 ¼ lengths and then he checked in seventh in the Derby as the beaten favorite. Like father like son?
6. Pants On Fire $623,000 (20/1)
He bounced back in the Louisiana Derby after having an infection and ringworm and checking in sixth in the Risen Star. He had ringworm on his legs, and that just can’t be pretty. I’d like him more if his name was Pants on the Ground.
7. Midnight Interlude $600,000 (22/1)
He won the Santa Anita Derby off a maiden win in a race that was missing the two likely favorites in Jaycito and Premier Pegasus. I boycotted racing at Santa Anita because of the takeout hike so I am boycotting any horse prepping for the Derby there. Santa Anita just does not exist to me.
8. J P’s Gusto $544,000 (60/1)
He set the early fractions and quit like a pig in the Arkansas Derby. On the bright side he was one of maybe four horses in the 12-horse field that got as mention from Oaklawn Park announcer Terry Wallace in the worst race call in the history of racing. I’m hearing he won’t make it to Louisville, and if he does, he may get less mention from Mark Johnson.
9. Soldat $540,000 (18/1)
He was the beaten chalk in the Florida Derby after wining his first two starts on dirt. He is heading in the wrong direction and his last start is not what you want to see for a final prep. I’m not sold at all.
10. Brilliant Speed $450,000 (40/1)
The last to first winner of the Toyota Blue Grass over the fake stuff, he has done his best work on poly or turf. His two dirt starts produced drubbings of 19 and 21 lengths. He is not so brilliant or speedy on dirt.
11. Master of Hounds $441,884 (25/1)
Godolphin has shown that bringing horses from overseas to run in the Derby does not work. Now Aidan O’Brien gives it a go with this colt, who was sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. He has not raced on dirt in his career and making the long trip does not seem to be the way to win this race. His bark may be worse than his bite.
12. Twice the Appeal $400,000 (50/1)
The Sunland Derby winner did not beat much, and although Mine That Bird used the race as a prep to winning the Derby, this guy is no Mine That Bird. Geez, Mine That Bird is no longer Mine That Bird either. On the bright side, if Mine That Bird can win the Derby…well…
13. Nehro $400,000 (9/1)
This colt is still eligible for a first level allowance race, and horses with just a maiden win on their resume don’t win the Run for the Roses. In addition, his name really sucks.
14. Mucho Macho Man $370,000 (18/1)
Any horse that could lead to a outbreak of a Village People song should not win the Derby, period.
15. Decisive Moment $301,000 (40/1)
His only stakes win came in the Jean Laffit, and last time I checked that is not a key Derby prep. Actually I did not even check, I’m just pretty sure it’s not.
16. Animal Kingdom $285,000 (28/1)
His four career starts have all been on turf and the fake stuff, and his pedigree leans more toward turf. His last work came at Keeneland, which means he won’t spend much time over the dirt surface at Churchill Downs. I see the Virginia Derby in his future, and I hear there is going to be 30 Hooters girls in the Colonial Downs infield for the race. Now, THAT will be a animal kingdom (July 16).
17. The Factor $272,500 (15/1) OUT OF DERBY
He faded to finish seventh in the Arkansas Derby, and misplaced his palate in the race and has had throat surgery to fix the issue. He is named after the Bill O'Reilly show and there is a better chance of Bill misplacing his palate than this guy winning the Derby.
18. Stay Thirsty $260,000 (50/1)
His seventh place finish in the Florida Derby was disappointing, and let’s not forget that Pletcher guy is just 1 for 28 in the Derby. He did win the Gotham two back over Norman Asbjornson, who I think is a left winger for the Vancouver Canucks.
19. Santiva $242,397 (40/1)
The colt was the beaten favorite in the Blue Grass over the polytrack, which reminds me that they should rename that Derby prep and call it the Toyota Brown Stuff next year.
20. Watch Me Go $235,500 (100/1)
The upset winner of the Tampa Bay Derby at 44/1, he tossed in a clunker in the Illinois Derby where he checked in sixth and was beaten 17 lengths. If he can be drilled by 17 lengths at Hawthorne and come back and win the Derby, you can Watch Me Go jump off a bridge.