1. 12-30-10 09:08 AM #1
    dvw5bf
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    Total Plays Test

    I have been messing around with some plays based on the below criteria for a little while and I believe it has been doing pretty well. However, since I can be somewhat disorganized, I do not have the numbers since they are scattered on random pieces of paper between my home and work. So I figured keeping track of them in here would be much more helpful and if anyone has any comments/suggestions I am not one to turn down good information.

    Criteria:
    1. Previous 5 Head 2 Head matchups (the more recent the games the better)
    2. The home team's last 5 at home
    3. The away team's last 5 away
    4. Goalie matchups

    All of the plays for the sake of consistency in this thread will be to win one unit (although that is not how i personally play them). This is all merely testing out some of my own thoughts so it is strongly suggested to not follow these plays. In some time, it may become some good fade material to watch for that!
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  2. 12-30-10 09:11 AM #2
    dvw5bf
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    Todays Plays:
    Oil/Avs ... Over 5.5 ... -140
    Kings/Flyers ... Under 5.5 ... -115
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  3. 12-31-10 12:22 PM #3
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 1-1 -0.15U
    Overall: 1-1 -0.15U

    Todays Plays:
    Wings/Isles ... Over 5.5 ... -115
    Jackets/Sens ... Under 5.5 ... -135

    The Panthers/Habs game would have been a play but if the stats point to the under of a game with the total set at 5 it is a no play.
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  4. 01-01-11 03:35 PM #4
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 1-1 -0.35U
    Overall: 2-2 -0.5U

    Todays Plays:
    Sens/Leafs ... Under 5.5 ... -125
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  5. 01-02-11 11:17 AM #5
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 0-1 -1.25U
    Overall: 2-3 -1.75U

    Todays Plays:
    Cats/Rags ... Under 5.5 ... -130
    Wings/Flyers ... Over 5.5 ... -135
    Ducks/Hawks ... Under 5.5 ... -115
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  6. 01-03-11 08:10 AM #6
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 2-1 +0.65U
    Overall: 4-4 -1.1U

    Todays Plays:
    Kings/Hawks ... Under 5.5 ... -125
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  7. 01-03-11 09:48 AM #7
    tomcast
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    It is an interesting test. Good luck.
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  8. 01-04-11 11:04 AM #8
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 0-1 -1.25U
    Overall: 4-5 -2.35U

    Todays Plays:
    Yotes/Jackets ... Under 5.5 ... -140
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  9. 01-05-11 08:56 AM #9
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 0-1 -1.4U
    Overall: 4-6 -3.75U

    Todays Plays:
    None
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  10. 01-06-11 09:45 AM #10
    dvw5bf
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    Overall: 4-6 -3.75U

    Todays Plays:
    Sharks/Sabres ... Over 5.5 ... -105
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  11. 01-07-11 08:58 AM #11
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 0-1 -1.05U
    Overall: 4-7 -4.8U

    Todays Plays:
    Flames/Wings ... Over 5.5 ... -105
    Nucks/Oilers ... Under 5.5 ... +110
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  12. 01-07-11 09:36 AM #12
    tuxStyle
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    I don't know how much will help you but... wouldn't be better to take in consideration one more factor:
    - league average ? (for the last 5 games in your case)
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  13. 01-07-11 10:51 AM #13
    dvw5bf
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    Thanks for the input tux, league average of what specifically? goals per game?
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  14. 01-08-11 01:44 PM #14
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 1-1 EVEN
    Overall: 5-8 -4.8U

    Todays Plays:
    Sharks/Preds ... Over 5 ... -140
    Wings/Nucks ... Over 5.5 ... -140
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  15. 01-10-11 08:54 AM #15
    dvw5bf
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    Sat: 0-2 -2.8U
    Overall: 5-10 -7.6U

    Was far too hungover to get up and post yesterday's. Clearly, this system is struggling quite a bit... if it continues on as such, I am going to begin fading the plays.

    Todays Plays:
    Avs/Wings ... Over 5.5 ... -145
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  16. 01-11-11 09:39 AM #16
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 1-0 +1U
    Overall: 6-10 -6.6U

    Todays Plays:
    Canes/Flames ... Under 5.5 ... -135
    Sabres/Flyers ... Over 5.5 ... -110
    Cats/Caps ... Under 5.5 ... -110
    Sharks/Leafs ... Under 5.5 ... -115
    Last edited by dvw5bf; 01-11-11 at 09:44 AM. Reason: Missed the sharks/leafs play
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  17. 01-12-11 08:39 AM #17
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 1-3 -3.6U
    Overall: 7-13 -10.2U

    Todays Plays:
    Lightning/Caps ... Under 6 ... -120
    Ducks/Blues ... Over 5 ... -140
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  18. 01-13-11 09:01 AM #18
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 2-0 +2U
    Overall: 9-13 -8.2U

    Todays Plays:
    Sabres/Canes ... Over 5.5 ... -105
    Yotes/Leafs ... Over 5.5 ... +100
    Kings/Blues ... Over 5.5 ... +110
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  19. 01-14-11 09:10 AM #19
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 1-2 -1.05U
    Overall: 10-15 -9.25U

    Todays Plays:
    Caps/Nucks ... Under 6 ... -115
    Sens/Flames ... Under 5.5 ... -130
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  20. 01-15-11 01:15 PM #20
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 1-0-1 +1U
    Overall: 11-15 -8.25U

    Todays Plays:
    None
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  21. 01-16-11 10:00 AM #21
    tuxStyle
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    Quote Originally Posted by dvw5bf View Post
    Thanks for the input tux, league average of what specifically? goals per game?
    Yes.
    Goals per game.
    And if both teams are from same conference it will probably be better to calculate the average for that conference.
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  22. 01-16-11 12:53 PM #22
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 0-0 0U
    Overall: 11-15 -8.25U

    Todays Plays:
    Wild/Canucks ... Over 5.5 ... -110
    Blackhawks/Preds ... Under 5.5 ... -135
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  23. 01-17-11 08:40 AM #23
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 0-2 -2.45U
    Overall: 11-17 -10.7U

    Todays Plays:
    Isles/Devils ... Over 5 ... -135
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  24. 01-18-11 09:06 AM #24
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 1-0 +1U
    Overall: 12-17 -9.7U

    Todays Plays:
    Canes/Bruins ... Over 5.5 ... +100
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  25. 01-19-11 08:46 AM #25
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 0-1 -1.0U
    Overall: 12-18 -10.7U

    Todays Plays:
    None
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  26. 01-20-11 08:41 AM #26
    dvw5bf
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    Overall: 12-18 -10.7U

    Todays Plays:
    Blues/Wings ... Over 5.5 ... +110
    Kings/Yotes ... Over 5 ... -145
    Last edited by dvw5bf; 01-20-11 at 09:55 AM. Reason: Update the line that wasn't out earlier for the Blues/Wings game
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  27. 01-21-11 08:59 AM #27
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 1-1 -0.35U
    Overall: 13-19 -11.05U

    Todays Plays:
    None
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  28. 01-21-11 10:56 AM #28
    shantystar
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    gl pall
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  29. 01-22-11 09:05 AM #29
    dvw5bf
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    Overall: 13-19 -11.05U

    Todays Plays:
    Thrashers/Rags ... Under 5.5 ... -120
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  30. 01-23-11 10:46 AM #30
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 1-0 +1.0U
    Overall: 14-19 -10.05U

    Todays Plays:
    Hawks/Flyers ... Over 5.5 ... -125
    Oilers/Preds ... Over 5.5 ... +115
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  31. 01-24-11 08:49 AM #31
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 0-2 -2.25U
    Overall: 14-21 -12.3U

    Todays Plays:
    Canes/Leafs ... Over 5.5 ... -120
    Avs/Blues ... Over 5.5 ... -110
    Nucks/Stars ... Over 5.5 ... -110
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  32. 01-25-11 08:50 AM #32
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 3-0 +3.0U
    Overall: 17-21 -9.3U

    Todays Plays:
    Rags/Cats ... Under ? ... ? (Only if total is at 5.5, not 5)
    Jackets/Ducks ... Over 5.5 ... +105
    Flyers/Habs ... Under 5.5 ... -130
    Hawks/Wild ... Under 5.5 ... -130
    Yotes/Oilers ... Over 5.5 ... -105
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  33. 01-26-11 10:13 AM #33
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 1-3 -2.6U
    Overall: 18-24 -11.9U

    Todays Plays:
    Kings/Sharks ... Under 5.5 ... -135
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  34. 01-27-11 10:14 AM #34
    dvw5bf
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    Yesterday: 1-0 +1.0U
    Overall: 19-24 -10.9U
    Last edited by dvw5bf; 01-27-11 at 10:15 AM. Reason: Miscounted units
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