[vassman86]

Hey fellas, I'll be keeping track of my NHL plays for the entire season. Follow the plays, compare them to your own, bash them, do what you want with them. I'll be tracking the dollar value of the plays as well.

What types of plays you can expect from me:
1) Underdog plays
2) -0.5 Regulation Time plays
3) Western Conference teams to beat Eastern Conference teams
4) Fading the bad teams

There are several teams I keep an eye on, which gives me a good feel about what to expect from them in each game. Those teams are: Vancouver, Washington, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Los Angeles.

I won't have plays everyday because I prefer quality over quantity. And I'll be keeping an up-to-date record right here in the first post.

NHL Regular Season YTD
2-1 +1.00 unit +$100

[vassman86]

Plays for Thursday November 4th, 2010:

NY Rangers +130: Risking $100 to win $130
Despite playing without their top two players (Drury and Gaborik), the Rangers' secondary offense is finding ways to score while their defense, backed by Lundqvist, is managing to keep things locked down. This is a great time to fade the hot Flyers. No doubt, they've put together a solid win streak, but against who? The Hurricanes? The lowly Islanders? The slumping Penguins, and the disappointing Sabres. This is a value play.

Ottawa Senators -0.5 RT -104: Risking $104 to win $100
After a strong start, the Islanders have once again becomes the league's doormat: everyone gets to stomp them til' their feet are clean. Tonight, the Senators will get their turn to light up the lamp. If the Sens are to win tonight, they'll get it done in regulation time; it's rare for me to risk so much juice for the entire game.

[vassman86]

Late play for Thursday November 4th, 2010:

LA Kings -0.5 RT -104: Risking $104 to win $100
The best in the West takes on the best in the East. Two dominant teams go at it tonight, and my moto is: in an out-of-conference game, take the West. Overall, Western Conference teams are better than their Eastern rivals. Tampa's record against the West last year was 6-7-5, and against the Pacific Division, they were 2-1-4. The Kings were the most dominant out-of-conference team last season with a 14-4-0 record. They're 3-0-0 against the East this year and I look for this trend to continue.

[vassman86]

Summary for November 4th, 2010:
2-1 +1.00 unit

[vassman86]

Plays for Friday November 5th, 2010:

Phoenix Coyotes +133: Risking $100 to win $133
Simply put, the Coyotes have owned the Stars to the tune of 7-2-1 over their last 10 meetings. Just like the Leafs, the Stars got off to a hot start this year, but they are by no means a playoff caliber team yet. There is tremendous value in this line as I see no way that Dallas should be a -150 favourite. As I type, the line has moved from +139 to +133, prompting me to lock in my bet. Rolling with the Coyotes tonight. I might make another play before game-time on Phoenix as well.

Boston Bruins +120: Risking $100 to win $120
This is a perfect example of a public line. Washington opens up as a -150 ML favourite on many books. The Capitals are much like the Lakers of the NBA: they'll get tremendous lines and spreads because the public will always bet on them. The truth is, Washington's offensive guns struggle against tight-knit defenses like Bostons. This became evident to me during last year's playoffs when Montreal put a clamp on their defense and really limited Washington's offensive game. This season, not much has changed for the Caps. Boston has already won two of two meetings between the two while limiting the Caps to 1.00 GPG in doing so. No doubt, Washington is a good team, but they're up against a better team.

Minnesota Wild -115: Risking $115 to win $100
When a team has your number, they have your number. In this case, the Wild have owned the Flames. Over their last seven meetings, Minnesota has come away as the victor six times. Calgary is a team that's still trying to find it's groove, and while they showed glimpses of the type of defensive game they can play (against Detroit), they're far from where they want to be. On the other hand, the Wild just keep doing what they're good at doing: limiting the opposition's offense to bad shots, and keeping them off the scoreboard.

[vassman86]

There is inexplicable line movement on the NYR/NJD game tonight. One thing we know is that Brodeur is not starting for the Devils. New Jersey is playing their first home game after coming back from a five-game Western Conference road trip. No doubt, it was a busy road trip for the Devils, who played five games in eight nights. Even though they ended the trip on a good note with a 5-3 W over the Blackhawks, I think it's too early for them to celebrate.

Chicago is the type of team that is poised for those big letdowns. As I recall, recently, the Blackhawks were big favourites against Columbus, and they ended up losing 3-2. Two games later, they play against the lowly Oilers as a -250 ML favourite. Whatdya know? They get blown out 7-4. When they're supposed to have an easy time against a struggling New Jersey team, they lose again.

Might make a small play on the Rangers tonight.

[vassman86]

Added play for November 5th, 2010:
Minnesota Wild -120: Risking $120 to win $100

[vassman86]

Summary for November 5th, 2010:
2-2 +0.00 units

[vassman86]

Plays for November 6th, 2010:

Columbus Blue Jackets -155: Risking $155 to win $100
For some reason, Minnesota is one of those teams that cannot perform on the road. They're up against a Blue Jackets team that's been absolutely on fire. I think Columbus has finally come to terms with the fact that their former #1 goaltender (Steve Mason) is not living up to expectations. Garon has been stellar for his team, and I look for him to continue his dominance in the crease.

Toronto Maple Leafs -142: Risking $142 to win $100
I normally don't try to go against a trend that's so overwhelming. For instance, the Leafs are 1-8-2 against the Sabres over their last 11 meetings, so logically, one would bet against the Leafs tonight. Not tonight though. The Leafs' offense has finally found that spark that they had to start the season. I expect the Leafs to come out firing tonight.

Tampa Bay Lightning +145: Risking $100 to win $145
Simply put, San Jose has been shut out in three of their last five games. Even though the Lightning have not faired particularly well against the West, I think this is one of those situations where the underdog steps up and proves a point. I'm sure Tampa's offense will find the back of the net. The Sharks are without Joe Thornton, and I think this will have an adverse affect on their power play.

[vassman86]

Two lines that are quite fishy this evening:

Philadelphia Flyers -150
So the Flyers are among the list of hottest teams in the league. So naturally, when you put a hot team up against a cold team *cue the Islanders*, you'd expect an outrageous moneyline, in the vicinity of -200 maybe? And, historically, when the Flyers have performed well against the Islanders, you'd really expect a big moneyline against them. So why is the line so low tonight? To me, this is potentially a trap: begging bettors to put their money on Philly tonight.

Dallas/Colorado ov/un 5.5
Over their last 10 meetings, these two have gone under the total in eight games. Naturally, you'd take the easy under in this one. But the over is on steroids: I'm talking about heavy juice. DAL/COL ov 5.5 -135. Something just isn't right. I may just make a play on the over in this one.

[vassman86]

Added play for November 6th, 2010:

Los Angeles Kings -157: Risking $157 to win $100
Even though the Predators have owned the Kings in recent seasons, I think this is where the tide turns. Despite losing their last five games on home ice to against Nashville, Los Angeles has more depth all around and they'll be able to get the job done tonight. When betting on a ML favourite of over -150, I usually take the risk and avoid laying the juice by taking them to win in regulation time (-0.5), but in this case, if it goes to overtime, I'm confident in the Kings to get the win.

[vassman86]

Summary for November 6th, 2010:

1-3 -2.97 units -$297

[vassman86]

Plays for November 7th, 2010:

St. Louis Blues +120: Risking $100 to win $120
Just going by the general principle that the when the West meets the East, the West tends to come out on top.

Edmonton/Chicago over 5.5 -130: Risking $390 to win $300
When these two teams get together, they have a style of play that just results in high scoring games. Expect no different for tonight's affair.

[vassman86]

Not only did Chicago lose the game, the didn't contribute to the total at all! What a letdown team...

Summary for November 7th, 2010:
1-1 -2.90 units -$290

[vassman86]

Plays for November 9th, 2010:

Tampa Bay Lightning -0.5 RT +107: Risking $200 to win $214
Today, we're getting the Lightning at a bargain of a price. The moneyline is -145, and it should be higher, but the general perception is that Tampa is in a slump. I don't agree with that. They played against some tough Western Conference opponents.

Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 PL +198: Risking $100 to win $198

Colorado Avalanche -114: Risking $114 to win $100
The spark that Rene Bourque provided when he returned from the IR list has dissipated. Calgary is an overrated team right now. To me, they're having trouble finding the right chemistry between their top lines: their guys just aren't on the same page when they're in the offensive zone. I like the Avs to get the job done tonight. It helps that they've gone 7-3-0 against the Flames over the last 10 meetings as well.

[vassman86]

I just thought I'd clarify:

for my signature, I'll keep track of the wins-losses, but I'll be tracking each play on a "To win 1-unit" basis. Monetary gains/losses will be tracked separately.

[vassman86]

Summary for November 9th, 2010:

2-1 +1.91 $298

[vassman86]

Just thought I'd mention:

Kind of funny...six games on the slate for tomorrow, and guess which one doesn't have a line out yet? Buffalo vs New Jersey. I guess the bookies are indifferent on how to cap the two worse teams in the league.

For anyone interested in arbitrage, that game seems like a good candidate. As far as I'm concerned, the game is a coinflip. Take the underdog, and when the line for the favourite drops, work your magic.

[vassman86]

Early play for Wednesday November 10th, 2010:

St. Louis Blues -124: Risking $124 to win $100
For anyone who's failed to notice, the Blues are quietly killing their way to the top of the standings. Fans in Montreal must be disgusted at management's decision to let Halak go. Even without the big-time salaries on their roster, the Blues are showing what a true team can do when they find chemistry. In their case, teamwork is paying off big time.

*The under looks good here. Both teams have been playing solid defense as of late. I tend to stay away from NHL totals that are 5, but I may give this one a go.

[vassman86]

Plays for Wednesday November 10th, 2010

Florida Panthers -0.5 +104: Risking $300 to win $312
This is just another standard bet when I feel it's appropriate to bet against a bad team. In this case, the bad team is the Toronto Maple Leafs playing on a tail end of a B2B. The Leafs came out sluggish last night and found themselves in a 3-0 hole after 20 minutes. They actually put up an effort in the 2nd and 3rd periods but couldn't mount the comeback. Two things that I like about this play: the Leafs are 1-6-3 over their L10 games, and the ML for this game opened at Florida -150, went up to -170 before going down to -136, and then again went back to -170. This could be one of those scenarios where the sharps lay huge money on the Leafs to move the line, when their real motive is to bet on the Panthers...

Maybe I'm wrong? Maybe I'm right? But I don't see the Leafs winning this game.

[Jones10]

GL tn i love the panthers -1.5 tn.....

[vassman86]

GL to you as well! I love the Leafs; they're my hometown team, but they're playing downright awful right now. I believe they've been shut out three times in the last six games. That's just downright nasty.

[BallerBoy]

Got ML on the Panthers

[vassman86]

GL BallerBoy. I'm an avid Leafs fan, and it just frustrates me to pieces that they've been struggling so badly. Scoring even-strength goals, yet alone powerplay goals seems like such a complicated task for them.

[vassman86]

Summary for November 10th, 2010:

1-1 -0.20 units | +188

[vassman86]

Just to revise my signature again:

I'll be removing the units, and only listing the monetary gain or loss. I find it a little more straight forward this way.

[BallerBoy]

Good day! Cashed on the Panthers ML and under

[vassman86]

Good day! Cashed on the Panthers ML and under

Congrats! Keep on piling up those wins.

[vassman86]

After going on a bit of a slide and spending some time in the red, I'm almost back at par.

Plays for November 11th, 2010:

Detroit Red Wings -1.5 PL +120: Risking $200 to win $240
Not much explanation is needed here. The Red Wings are the far superior team in tonight's meeting. The Oilers have absolutely sucked on the road. I believe they've lost 27 of their last 31 road games; two of those wins came against the Blackhawks this season. Further, six of Edmonton's seven regulation losses this season have come by 2 or more goals. I'll be rolling with the team that can find the back of the net with three of their offensive lines. Red Wings all the way.

I'm tempted to lay something on the Red Wings -0.5 RT as well.

Los Angeles Kings -0.5 RT -102: Risking $204 to win $200
I'll be the first to admit that this one is a tad risky. Dallas is no slouch of a team. But the LA Kings have faired well against them, going 8-2 over their L10 meetings. The price tag on the ML is too high for my liking, but I'm willing to take the Kings in regulation for a lower price.

[bigsmitty]

Agree on LAK, DET/EDM I'm off due to the DET price and EDM road stats (overall even) although they might be ready to rock after the kids got benched...Good luck

[vassman86]

Agree on LAK, DET/EDM I'm off due to the DET price and EDM road stats (overall even) although they might be ready to rock after the kids got benched...Good luck

GL to you as well I get where you're coming from on the EDM/DET game, but the Wings are on a totally different level than the Oilers. Detroit's forwards know how to work with their defense in order to pinch and create scoring chances. It's all about trust in the Detroit system.

[vassman86]

Summary for November 11th, 2010:

2-0 +$444

[vassman86]

After spending a few days in the red, it feels good to be back on top of things. I got off to a later start betting the NHL than usual, but I wanted to get a feel for the teams before I jumped in. Let's hope to keep up the winning all season long. Not sure if I'll have a play for tomorrow. I'm still figuring out how I want to colour-code my thread, so forgive me if things seem a tad colourful over the next week or so.

LAST THREE DAYS: 5-2 +$930

[vassman86]

No plays that really stand out to me today. Try again tomorrow.

[vassman86]

Plays for Saturday November 13th, 2010:

Los Angeles Kings -0.5 RT -140: Risking $280 to win $200
In my eyes, the LA Kings are a real threat to win the West this year. They're young, talented, and come out to play every night. Up against one of the worst teams in the league, you know the Kings will not let this one slip away. The Islanders have been one of the worst road teams over the last two seasons, which seems to be an ongoing trend. Meanwhile, they'll be playing their third out of conference road game in four nights. The Kings were one of the best out of conference teams last season.

Vancouver Canucks -0.5 RT +112: Risking $100 to win $112
This is a value bet. If the Canucks win tonight, they'll do it in regulation. I'm so tempted to take the -1.5 PL for the Canucks, but I'd rather play it safe. The Leafs are a team that needs to find their chemistry. Players are trying to do too much; sometimes simplicity is bliss. Until the Leafs show that they can play with some cohesion on more than two lines, I'll be betting against them. Also. The Canucks were 13-5-0 against the East last season, while the Leafs were 5-12-1. Ouch.

Washington Capitals -0.5 RT +125: Risking $100 to win $125
The Caps are on an absolute roll. Their offense is on fire. Against the Sabres last season, the Caps won 3 of 4 games, and won those three games by two or more goals. The Caps have won their last four games by two or more goals as well; a testament to their offensive potency. Without Miller in net, the Sabres don't stand a chance. Enroth is not skilled enough to handle what the Capitals will be sending his way tonight.