In most NHL Playoff years, upsets in the first round are very common. In fact in the 2006 playoffs, only the eventual Cup Champion Carolina Hurricanes escaped the first round of upsets as 7 of the 8 underdogs won their first round series. Generally speaking, if upsets are going to happen, they are going to happen in the first round, with those darkhorse teams eventually peetering out in the later rounds. I believe the West will be very formful this year, but what about the East? To me, 5 teams seem capable of reaching the Stanley Cup finals, but almost all the underdog teams are capable of winning the first round as only 10 points seperated 1st from 8th in the East.
Montreal Canadiens (47-35, 1st seed)
Overall Analysis
Perhaps the most surprising team in the league this year. The Habs went from missing the playoffs last year to winning the Eastern Conference this year. How did this happen? Is it that they are just this good, or is it a product of a very weak Eastern Conference? I think one has to believe that it is a little bit of both. The Canadiens come into the playoffs with the best road record in the Conference, as well as a power play that will destroy teams that consistently put it on the ice. They also have alot of unknowns. The major one being in goal. How often do you see a first place team trade their number one goalie at the deadline? I believe the answer after Montreal traded Huet away is one. They have decided to put their eggs in the basket of Carey Price. The question is, will he be the next coming of Ken Dryden and Patrick Roy and carry them to the promised land? Or will he be Steve Penney, the mid 80's supposed savior who came out of nowhere to lead Montreal to a couple of surprising playoff upsets before disappearing from the league within 2 seasons. The answer is more likely the former than the latter as Price has won at every level he's played at and has shown to be in top form going into the playoffs. I don't believe he will falter and if he doesn't Montreal will be a very difficult team to eliminate for any team, and quite possibly the Eastern Conference representative.
1st round Analysis
Montreal drew Boston in the first round, probably their best matchup, and more importantly avoiding Washington who ended up in the 3 slot when Carolina missed the playoffs entirely. Historically in the playoffs Montreal has had Boston's number time and again and i don't believe that this will be any different. Down the stretch the Bruins had enourmous trouble scoring goals and the one thing you need to be able to do against Montreal is score on them as they will probably put up a minimum of 3 per game in each game of this series. If you are looking for a 1st round upset, i don't believe this is where you will find it.
Betting Value
There will be none in the first round of the playoffs, but as they progress into the second round and beyond, value may be found in both series and in individual games, especially road games where they will be a dog to whoever they play.
Pittsburgh Penguins (47-35, 2nd seed)
Overall Analysis
Definately one of the more exciting teams to watch night in and night out with two superstars in Crosby and Malkin. The Penguins however have two very serious questions to answer. First of all, how healthy is Crosby as it is obvious that his ankle injury is not 100% healed and won't be for the rest of the season. If and when the Pens advance to later rounds, how will the wear and tear and the obvious beating that Crosby will be subjected too, affect him. Clearly the Pens have proven they can win without Crosby, but the regular season and the playoffs are two different animals. The second issue facing the Pens is goaltending. The Pens have to hope that Fleury can step up and carry the load because if he can't, Ty Conklin is waiting in the wings. Conklin had a fantastic regular season but in the end he is still Ty Conklin and no team can rely on him to get them to the promised land. If these two factors, Crosby and goaltending go awry, Pittsburgh will be ripe for the picking.
1st round Analysis
Pittsburgh drew Ottawa in the first round and no team in recent memory has backed into the playoffs the way that Ottawa has. As stated above, i believe the Pens are ripe for the picking and are very fortunate that they drew a team in such disarray. For Ottawa to have any chance in this series they have to find a way to win a game in Pittsburgh because if they don't, their lack of heart will again come to the fore and they may go down in 4 games.
Betting Value
Pittsburgh will have none in round one and may have some as a team to play against throughout the playoffs. It's not that this team isn't capable of winning the Conference, as they most certainly are, but with the question marks they have, and some of the big prices you might have to lay, the value will be in betting against them.
Washington Capitals (43-39, 3rd seed)
Overall Analysis
What more is their to say about what this team has done since their 6-15 start and the hiring of Bruce Boudreau as coach. They finished 37-16 under him and won 11 of their last 12. This team has the capability of going straight to the Cup finals, but they also may very well lose in the first round. Washington has the luxury of playing in the weakest division in the East with no other team from this division in the playoffs, and of their last 11 games they played to get into the playoffs not a single one of them was against a playoff team. Kudos to them for doing what they had too but now they won't have the likes of Atlanta, Florida and Tampa to beat up on anymore. Their trade deadline acquisitions, especially of Huet to mind the cage have paid off huge as Kolzig is no longer capable of playing at an elite level for long stretches. Of course if something did happen to Huet, the Caps would have the luxury of a proven netminder to carry them for a distance.
1st round Analysis
The Caps were very fortunate that the injuries finally caught up to Carolina so that they could take the 3 seed as if they had somehow snuck in at number 8 they would have had to face Montreal. Instead they drew the Flyers, a team that looked to be dead in the water with 2 weeks left in the season, but found their game and actually improved to the point where they finished 6th. Although not a serious Cup contender, Philly has what is necessary to beat Washington. Obviously they have to limit the damage that Ovechkin will cause, but i think Philly has the horses to beat the Capitals in this series.
Betting Value
Because of how hot they are going into the playoffs i believe nice numbers will appear on Philly in each game in this series as well as the series price itself. The value here is in betting against the Caps in round one. They are clearly more than capable of winning this series, and for that matter the East, but i believe the patsy schedule that they played to get into the playoffs will expose them for the team they are, which is a very very good up and coming team, but not one ready for prime time as of yet.
New Jersey Devils (46-36, 4th seed)
Overall Analysis
Pick a year from either the 90's or this decade, plug in the team name "New Jersey Devils" and you pretty much get the same team year in and year out. They rely on solid team defence, timely scoring and of course one of the best goalkeepers of all time to get them to where they want to go. No team has been more consistent playing the same style year in and year out as the Devils. As it almost always the case, defense and goaltending win Stanley Cups and this team is almost always a contender because of that, and this year is no different. Of course by slipping to the 4th seed they've given themselves a much more difficult task this year as their first round opponent is the one team that has given them more trouble than any other. However, if they can find their way past the Rangers, they are a legit threat to win the Conference.
1st Round Analysis
As stated above, the Devils drew their worst possible opponent for round 1. The Rangers handled them consistently throughout the year, but the question is, will that carry over to the playoffs. History shows that this isn't always the case as many teams from the past have been dominated during the regular season only to pick up their level come playoff time. With that said, this series can go either way and no criticism could be placed on someone making a solid case for either team winning. The most challenging series in round 1 to forcast, but i believe the Devils will prevail.
Betting Value
Although the Devils have home ice advantage, they are actually underdogs in this series which does peak the interest somewhat as this type of thing is a rarity. No question the Rangers domination has something to do with this but as stated above, regular season doesn't always translate into the playoffs. There could be some value picking the right spots with this team.
New York Rangers (42-40, 5th seed)
Overall Analysis
This years version of the Rangers is very similiar to the New Jersey Devils. They don't score much, don't have that big time game breaker anymore as Jagr, although still a good player is not a one man difference maker anymore, and quality netminding. The Rangers had 13 OT losses, most in the conference, which shows their propensity to play very tight checking, and very low scoring games. This may serve them well against a team like New Jersey, but if they get past the Devils and face Montreal or even Pittsburgh they may not be able to score enough, especially if they get behind early in games. Is this team capable of running the table and getting to the finals? Yes. Are they likely too? No. Another puzzle piece in the jigsaw that is the East.
Betting Value
They have zero in the first round against the Devils as their domination of them has skewed the lines against them. If they make it to round two, they may have difficulty overcoming their inability to score but if the lines are high enough they might be worth a look at that time.
Philadelphia Flyers 42-40 6th seed
Overall Analysis
The Flyers in early March were reeling and were actually the team that all the non playoff teams were chasing. However they got their act together in the final weeks and ended up as seed number 6. For their efforts they get the hottest team in the NHL in the Capitals. However, as stated in the Caps write up, this may not be such a bad match up for them. They finally have quality goaltending for the first time in years in Martin Biron, and a young team with lots of energy. This Flyers team is a far cry from some of the teams that Bobby Clarke sent to the playoffs year in and year out only to get sent home early. The Flyers are more battle tested because of the division they play in and this will serve them well against the Capitals. Though not capable i don't believe of winning the East, this team can definately pull the upset in round 1 and give any team they come up against a solid battle.
Betting Value
Lots of it in round 1 as the Capitals are the "now" team. Both a series wager and individual games will hold value for this team. If they are able to beat the Caps and get into round two they will be significant underdogs to whoever they play and depending on the prices in individual games, may be worth a second look at all times.
Ottawa Senators (43-39, 7th seed)
Overall Analysis
Where to start with this team??? To use the cliche, if you were to open up a dictionary under the word "heartless" you would find a nice color picture of this team. For 10 years they've had a team that on paper looks to consistently be a Cup contender, but every year save last year they have found a way to fall apart before the big dance. Last year they finally got over the hump but when the chips were down, the same old Senetors showed up. When everything goes smoothly for them, they are a dynamite, dominate team, but give them a speck of adversity and they collapse quicker than a $2 whore's bed. Daniel Alfredsson's slapshot at Scott Niedermeyer during last years final showed what happens when things don't go their way. They pout and pout some more. This year, they started out 15-2, but since then played under .500 hockey and literally backed themselves into the playoffs. Goaltending is an issue as it always has been in Ottawa but the Sens are making the right choice by riding Martin Gerber and planting cancer Ray Emery's butt to the end of the bench.
Betting Value
Does this team have the talent to upset a team or two? Most definately, but everything must go perfect for them or else they will fold up like every other year. But if you believe they can put it all together, getting the type of price you will get on this team to win individual games and a series will definately be very enticing. They can win any series they play in, but they can also be blasted right out of one as well.
Boston Bruins (41-41, 8th seed)
Overall Analysis
The Bruins were very fortunate to get the inept Maple Leafs twice in the last week of the season or else they may very well have collapsed right out of the playoffs. This team has incredible trouble scoring goals and i see no way of this changing which will put them up against it against Montreal who will be putting up their share. Tim Thomas has been pretty solid most of the year and will need to be lights out for the Bruins to have any chance. They do have a dominate defenceman in Chara but after Marc Savard, scoring gets pretty thin. Boston will need top flight performances from every player along with some luck and shoddy Habs goaltending to get out of round one and i just don't see all the stars aligning like this.
Betting Value
Personally speaking, i made some nice money betting the Bruins team total under during the month of march as it was painfully evident (to Bruins fans) that this team couldn't score. Their team totals generally sit at 2.5 with the juice depending on where the games played. Keep an eye on this and some value may be found playing this type of bet. Otherwise i believe this team is overmatched and holds little value in this series.
Good luck to all this playoff run and here's to all of us being on the right side more often than the wrong side.
Another solid read, good perspective going into round one, which I cant wait for.
Most picked Montreal to miss playoffs, not finish 1st, especially after Ottawa started so strong. I cant see them losing to Bruins, unless its game 4. Pittsburgh will be a good over I believe, they were taught a good lesson by Ottawa last year of what it takes to win in the playoffs, Have they learned their lesson? Two words describe Washington: Mike Green. Most underrated defenseman in the NHL. 56 points +/- of +6. They will be in for a tough long series with the Flyers, but the Flyers discipline problems that have plagued them all season will be there undoing. I agree completely with what you said about the Devils/Rangers, worth a couple plays in Devils favour, but in a tight series you have to give the edge to the Rangers, they have more intangibles. This is Drurys time of year, Avery has been a catalyst all season, and Gomez will be pumped to knock out Brodeur and company. I see the Flyers as rough, rugged and skilled. I also see them taking stupid penalties, as many young teams do, and against Washingtons skill-set, you are skiing a slippery slope. Boston, have faired poorly against Montreal perpetually. That shouldnt change.
Good luck to you Cobra in your postseason plays, and also, I wish they would bring back the green silver and blue. as well as les nordiques, and the Jets.
That is truly a great breakdown that you have posted here,i have print it and put it in my files.I have shut down for the season,my next bet will be on wk1 of the NFL season,however i will try to watch some of the play-offs.I think we are going to be stuck to watch another 2mths of clutching,grabbing,trapping,hooking and a totally and utterly boring and unwatchable hockey.I was really hopeful COBRA after the return from the strike season of 05 because the post season games where the best play-offs hockey i can remember seeing!
and than we got last year...
Old chum i got a feeling about the BOSTON VS MTL games,BOS. lost 11 IN A ROW vs mtl!!They are not that bad and mtl is not 11-0 better than BOSTON!!!,I don't think ANYBODY else swept them this year except mtl?What's up with that?
NO-BO-DY is watching or care about them in Boston right now,it's all Red Sox,in other words they are playing with "house money",however the locals in sh*town have already started to unfolded they chairs along where they think the cup parade route will be!!The pressure is definitely on The Canadians.
COBRA ,YOU SHOULD THINK ABOUT STARTING A NHL BETTING NEWSLETTER!!! I would pay for it!
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cobra_kings 2008 Playoff Preview----Eastern Conference
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