[jjgold]

Or is this team just overrated

I got people on the ground in Florida but they are not telling me much

[Brock Landers]

Home teams that lose game 1 are extremely motivated to win game 2 at home

[jjgold]

Landers you know every angle

[Brock Landers]

Landers you know every angle

you must be a fuckin novice still, only been betting on sports for 30 years

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Home teams that lose game 1 are extremely motivated to win game 2 at home

Any historical data on this?

[jose21_us]

I’ll be at the game tonight. Pound em!

[svsooner]

overrated IMO. Scored a lot in the regular season, but being slowed down in the playoffs.

[Darkside Magick]

Florida Panthers -2.5 +292 vs Tampa Bay Lightning

[KVB]

I like the UNDER 6.5 and think it's a good buy here.

[KVB]

Any historical data on this?

Yes.

I went back 75 plays, or the closest season...

You're looking at 55.4% over more than 15 years with with a 41-33 record for the home team but it yields about -5 units of profit, betting the same unit each game, depending on your line.

All but two of those games had the home team favored and the average line of those favorites was -160. In the other three games the home teams were pickem (win), +110 (Loss), and +255 (win).

On May 4th this year three of the four game two's had the home team coming off a loss.

The home team won all three of those games.

Here's what it looks if you bet the home team here over the last 74 plays...

[KVB]

If we flip that though, you find profit on the away team.

The record is 33-41, 44.6%, But a bettor betting that same unit on the Visiting team in game two after the home team lost game 1 would be up about +5 units.

The bettor only needed to win a little over 40% of those games for profit.

[jjgold]

KVB has data on everything

[KVB]

Funny thing is that the average price on all the dogs during that 74 game study is about +147.

That's what Circa is dealing now and the market is right there, around +150.

[goduke]

im on tampa. florida isnt at their level

[lakerboy]

I can't trust them.

[KVB]

There's a correction to that data above.

I did not account for games in the first playoff series where the home team may have lost before that, at the end of the regular season.

In that case, the record for the Home team is 52-41, 55.9% and a loss of more the -6 units.

Betting on the road team in this case yielded a profit of more than +7 units.

So counting all those first series games as well it only got worse for the home team, and better for the road bettors.

Average lines aren't much different.

[pavyracer]

Every game is unique if you know anything about probabilities.

Just because team A beat team B and team C beat team D on the second game of a playoff away it does not mean that team A will beat team C in the second away game of the next series.

[JayLA]

why cant panthers play like they did in the reg season

[goduke]

why cant panthers play like they did in the reg season

Because teams play better defense and care more in the playoffs. Florida like to capitalize on laziness during the regular season and didn’t work as hard like this in the regular season

[Darkside Magick]

[JayLA]

Because teams play better defense and care more in the playoffs. Florida like to capitalize on laziness during the regular season and didn’t work as hard like this in the regular season

I know shit all about hockey (and sports for that matter) so thanks! I figured it was something like that

[KVB]

why cant panthers play like they did in the reg season

Because teams play better defense and care more in the playoffs. Florida like to capitalize on laziness during the regular season and didn’t work as hard like this in the regular season

Yeah

Playoffs can be a different animal. No matter the sport.

It's often related to defense. Even when the playoffs started this year with that flurry of Overs, it doesn't mean we didn't still see a playoff defense. Overs were profitable at a crazy rate year to date in the NHL.

But playoffs still brought changes.

[jjgold]

They are terrible

[BeatTheJerk]

Yeah

Playoffs can be a different animal. No matter the sport.

It's often related to defense. Even when the playoffs started this year with that flurry of Overs, it doesn't mean we didn't still see a playoff defense. Overs were profitable at a crazy rate year to date in the NHL.

But playoffs still brought changes.

They are like O & 30 on their playoff power plays lol yeah so that doesn’t help at all.

[BeatTheJerk]

Unreal JJ Gold curse strikes again

[KVB]

I like the UNDER 6.5 and think it's a good buy here.

Bang!!!

Not one to bump winners, but that was nice UNDER there.



Home teams might be motivated after losing game 1 at home, but it hasn't been translating to a good bet.

[goduke]

Haha Florida at their best. Powerplay with 3 minutes to go and they produce nothing and then give up the game winning goal with 3 seconds left because the defenseman thought he needed to double team Kucherov behind the net. Good thing i learned my lesson from game 1

[jjgold]

Series could
Be over

[risKingDigits]

0-26 on power plays, Lighting is thinking about pulling their goalie to make it an even 5 on 5 from now on.

[pavyracer]

Unreal JJ Gold curse strikes again

I always fade the coach. He is right on the money.

Ticket#:4945790 May 19 07:00 PM

May 19 06:59 PM

NHL

STRAIGHT BET [33] TAMPA BAY +152

348.81 / 530.19

[BeatTheJerk]

I always fade the coach. He is right on the money.

Ticket#:4945790 May 19 07:00 PM

May 19 06:59 PM

NHL

STRAIGHT BET [33] TAMPA BAY +152

348.81 / 530.19

Well done by you.

[jjgold]

Excellent paver

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Excellent paver

Who u like for FRI, goldy?

[swordsandtequila]

Been there, done that…

[RM Logic]

Tampa Bay sells out in the playoffs. Guys put their bodies out there to stop shots. I think Stamkos had like 4 blocks in the 3rd period.
They up their defensive play to win Stanley Cups.