[Natehoover93]

Anybody have any NHL models they have had success with, if so feel free to share some stats! Currently working on building my own model.

[skyscrapers]

With this season being an unusual one I think it's a good situation for a chase system. I followed Wallco's NHL Gold system for years until it went down the toilet. For this year teams play other teams 9 or 10 times within it's respective division only. I don't see one team having it's way over another team for the entire 9 or 10 game 'series' if you will. NHL traditionally have the highest parity among teams with dogs winning at a higher rate than the other 3 major sports. With this year with the Covid situation and shortened season I believe dogs will hit at an even higher rate.

My idea is to bet the dog on the 'A' bet vs another team and chase for up to 4 games vs the same team for a win or cover. If it's a heavy dog then I will bet the +1 or +1.5 puckline as long as it's greater than +100. Now if the team that you're betting on was a dog and it loses and it becomes a favorite on it's subsequent leg then you'll have to bet it as a favorite on the moneyline. I will use the closing line as the final line. If the team you'll betting on wins or covers then you'll start your 'A' bet again on the dog next time the teams play again vs each other as long as there are 4 games remaining on the schedule for those team vs each other.

For example on opening day I will be betting on:
PHI 2.03
MTL 2.32
STL 2.27
VAN 2.27

CHI is such a heavy dog against TB so I will check the +1 and +1.5 puckline. +1 is 2.49 and +1.5 is 1.87 so I'll be betting CHI +1.

If PHI wins tonight then the chase is over. We'll bet the dog on the 'A' bet next time PHI/PIT plays again.
If PHI loses then you chase them on the 'B' bet next time PHI plays PIT.

Basically we're betting on the dog team on the 'A' bet to win or cover at least once in the subsequent 4 game series vs the same team within their respective division.

[Natehoover93]

That's seems to be a pretty logical system, I like that and I am definitely interested to see how this season turns out with the different schedules compared to normal and what not. I thought this season would be a good one to use in trying to create or play around with a system and I'm hoping to work something out that isn't half bad that I can tweak a little in the future until the best results show! Good luck to you this season and everyone else out there betting NHL!!

[124Dimez]

Anybody have any NHL models they have had success with, if so feel free to share some stats! Currently working on building my own model.

I've built my own. It was very profitable last season.

[Kami40]

Goodstuff thanks for your insight have a Great day my Brother

[skyscrapers]

I think this is the only year that a system like this will work because the schedule is similar to baseball. I've actually gave the system a tweak already. Instead of keep chasing the dog after a chase series is over I'll alternate between the team being chased and the team that's chased against. It's kind of confusing to explain so I'll give it in examples below.

Example 1:
I betted Vancouver (A) bet in the first game of the season series with Edmonton as a 2.27 dog. Vancouver won so chase is over. The next game between the teams I betted the A' bet on Edmonton at 1.769 because we won with Vancouver in the previous chase. Result was Edmonton won so chase is over. The next time these two teams play against each other I'll make an 'A' bet on Vancouver since Edmonton won the previous chase. So on and so forth...

Example 2:
I betted PHI 2.03 dog vs PIT on the first game of the season and PHI won...chase is over. Next game I betted PIT 1.943 and PIT lost so on the next game they play each other I'll continue the chase on PIT 'B' bet.

Example 3:
I betted BUF 2.16 vs WSH on the first game but BUF lost. Second game between them I continued the 'B' bet chase with BUF 2.18 and BUF lost again. Next time these two teams play again vs each other I'll continue the chase with BUF 'C' bet.

[username456]

Idk of any systems but if you can look at 1P overs. You can catch some at 1.5. Scoring is way up.

[skyscrapers]

Record so far with the finished series:

East (2-0) +2.03u
West (3-0) +3.43u
Central (0-0)
North (4-0) +4.58u

Total (9-0) +10.04u

[skyscrapers]

Idk of any systems but if you can look at 1P overs. You can catch some at 1.5. Scoring is way up.

Yes. Live betting the total after 2 periods should be good too. I think it'll tighten up somewhat towards the end of the season though.

[VeggieDog]

With this season being an unusual one I think it's a good situation for a chase system. I followed Wallco's NHL Gold system for years until it went down the toilet. For this year teams play other teams 9 or 10 times within it's respective division only. I don't see one team having it's way over another team for the entire 9 or 10 game 'series' if you will. NHL traditionally have the highest parity among teams with dogs winning at a higher rate than the other 3 major sports. With this year with the Covid situation and shortened season I believe dogs will hit at an even higher rate.

My idea is to bet the dog on the 'A' bet vs another team and chase for up to 4 games vs the same team for a win or cover. If it's a heavy dog then I will bet the +1 or +1.5 puckline as long as it's greater than +100. Now if the team that you're betting on was a dog and it loses and it becomes a favorite on it's subsequent leg then you'll have to bet it as a favorite on the moneyline. I will use the closing line as the final line. If the team you'll betting on wins or covers then you'll start your 'A' bet again on the dog next time the teams play again vs each other as long as there are 4 games remaining on the schedule for those team vs each other.

For example on opening day I will be betting on:
PHI 2.03
MTL 2.32
STL 2.27
VAN 2.27

CHI is such a heavy dog against TB so I will check the +1 and +1.5 puckline. +1 is 2.49 and +1.5 is 1.87 so I'll be betting CHI +1.

If PHI wins tonight then the chase is over. We'll bet the dog on the 'A' bet next time PHI/PIT plays again.
If PHI loses then you chase them on the 'B' bet next time PHI plays PIT.

Basically we're betting on the dog team on the 'A' bet to win or cover at least once in the subsequent 4 game series vs the same team within their respective division.

How heavy? Do you have a firm number or is it just a gut feeling for that particular game?

[skyscrapers]

How heavy? Do you have a firm number or is it just a gut feeling for that particular game?

If I can get the +1 puckline of at least +100 than it's considered a heavy dog. I will then bet the +1 line instead of the moneyline. On rare occasions you can even get the +1.5 puckline of at least +100 then I will bet +1.5 instead of +1.

Record so far with the finished series:

East (8-0) +8.90u [3 series ongoing]
West (5-0) +5.65u [5 series ongoing]
Central (2-0) 2.62u [4 series ongoing]
North (7-0) +7.63u [4 series ongoing]

Total (22-0) +24.8u [16 series ongoing]

[skyscrapers]

For Jan 20 Wed my bet are as follows:

EDM@TOR: 1st matchup of the season so we bet the dog. (A) bet on EDM M/L or +1 if that moves to plus odds.
SJ@STL: repeat (A) bet on SJ because SJ pushed on the +1 in the last matchup. SJ M/L or +1 if that stays at +odds.
MIN@ANA: (A) bet on MIN M/L because ANA won the last chase between them so we flip to chase the other team next.
MTL@VAN: 1st matchup of the season so we bet the dog. (A) bet on VAN M/L
ARI@LV: (B) bet on ARI +1

I use Pinnacle as my book and sometimes I have to wait till the last minute to determine the team and line to bet on.

[skyscrapers]

For Jan 20 Wed my bet are as follows:

EDM@TOR: 1st matchup of the season so we bet the dog. (A) bet on EDM M/L or +1 if that moves to plus odds.
SJ@STL: repeat (A) bet on SJ because SJ pushed on the +1 in the last matchup. SJ M/L or +1 if that stays at +odds.
MIN@ANA: (A) bet on MIN M/L because ANA won the last chase between them so we flip to chase the other team next.
MTL@VAN: 1st matchup of the season so we bet the dog. (A) bet on VAN M/L
ARI@LV: (B) bet on ARI +1

I use Pinnacle as my book and sometimes I have to wait till the last minute to determine the team and line to bet on.

EDM, SJ, MIN, VAN all won!!! Only loss was ARI.

Brings our total with the finished series to:
East (8-0) +8.90u [3 series ongoing]
West (7-0) +7.69u [5 series ongoing]
Central (2-0) 2.62u [4 series ongoing]
North (9-0) +10.09u [4 series ongoing]

Total (26-0) +29.3u [16 series ongoing]

[skyscrapers]

Jan. 21 Thu:

(A) PHI
(A) NJ
(A) CBJ
(A) OTT
(A) MTL
(A) LA

[skyscrapers]

Won the first D bet of the season with BUF winning in a S/O!!!

East (11-0) +12.30u (4 series ongoing)
West (13-0) +14.91u (2 series ongoing)
Central (3-0) 3.62u (6 series ongoing)
North (11-0) +12.09u (8 series ongoing)

Total (38-0) +42.92u (20 series ongoing)

[1sob]

Won the first D bet of the season with BUF winning in a S/O!!!

East (11-0) +12.30u (4 series ongoing)
West (13-0) +14.91u (2 series ongoing)
Central (3-0) 3.62u (6 series ongoing)
North (11-0) +12.09u (8 series ongoing)

Total (38-0) +42.92u (20 series ongoing)

if you lose 1 set wouldn't that take a big hit ??
this is like the chase system in MLB

[skyscrapers]

if you lose 1 set wouldn't that take a big hit ??
this is like the chase system in MLB

The vast majority (95%) of the bets are dogs so a loss on an all-dog 4-game set will be only 15 units. It wouldn't take long to recover from a 15 unit loss.

Also for + odds I bet the unit instead of to win the unit. That's why one set win yields more than a 1 unit profit.

[skyscrapers]

Today is very simple. Only one game on the schedule and it's the first game between these teams so (A) bet on Ottawa 2.29. If they win today then we start a new chase on Vancouver the next game. If they lose then (B) bet on Ottawa the next game. Simple...

[cankid]

before today it appears lots of favorites winning so far in the first 10 games

[skyscrapers]

before today it appears lots of favorites winning so far in the first 10 games

The last week or so a lot of favorites won but yesterday all the dogs were barking.

There were 2 D bets this season (BUF & NYR) and both won. Today is a D bet for the Flyers.

East (17-0) +19.51u (8 series ongoing)
West (22-0) +25.86u (3 series ongoing)
Central (10-0) +11.31u (11 series ongoing)
North (18-0) +19.92u (10 series ongoing)

Total (67-0) +76.60u (32 series ongoing)

[njb5572]

Sky, you planning on playing the adjusted system that seemed to have some success last season?

Wrong thread but while I have you, curious what you are eyeing for NBA by way of systems now that we have sunsetted Wallco's Chase 110

Love,
another degen system bettor

[skyscrapers]

Sky, you planning on playing the adjusted system that seemed to have some success last season?

Wrong thread but while I have you, curious what you are eyeing for NBA by way of systems now that we have sunsetted Wallco's Chase 110

Love,
another degen system bettor

I won't have time for it but I will continue to update and follow Chase 110.

[Runeblade]

I'm going to test betting on the Stanley Cup Champions on the puck line using $6 units. I will post results once in a while on this thread.