Originally Posted by
Mr0ctober
Welcome 2021 NHL going to be an abnormal year in terms of divisions, lack of fans, and game play but none the less should be interesting and fun. Just an FYI for all you new people hockey betting is much like MLB betting. We aren’t betting spreads at and trying to beat a break even point. We are finding value in money lines and backing teams that will win more than there suggested price. All the while capping matchups and goal tenders etc. but going into a game thinking I want to bet this team bc I think they win tonight is not what I’m doing here. The line will determine who to bet.. example I have Pittsburgh -105 tonight vs the flyers . Therefore if the line is Pittsburgh +110 I’m going to back the Penguins. But if I see the line is Pittsburgh -135 I would be much inclined to take the other side and bet the flyers at a nice underdog price.
Hockey is a tough sport to beat. There is extremely high variance especially when only accounting for small sample sizes.. therefore you could cap a season really well and it not end well. Long story short bad bettors could win for an entire season and Vice versa. I guess what I’m getting at is one hockey season really isn’t much in terms of sample size. Also with that being said bankroll management is very important as well. Don’t freak out after a bad week or month. And also don’t over adjust what you know right away. Example if you think I really like the Capitals this year but then they start 0-8 don’t adjust your stance on them and say I was wrong they are horrible without looking why they are 0-8. Are they having bad luck? Are they running into hot goal tenders. Or maybe you were wrong but double check.
All the variance in hockey and MLB is why you see me betting more on season long stuff rather than game by game. Longer sample size... the less variance should show.
Alright enough rambling about hockey betting and approach. I’ll try to write up some this year but usually don’t have the time as I have children and work full time.
hockey 2021 season long plays:
To make the Playoffs:
Pittsburgh Penguins -YES- (-160) (to win 3 units)
Carolina Hurricanes -YES- (-270) (to win 5 units)
Tampa Lightning-YES- (-450) (to win 5 units)
Dallas Stars -NO- (+135) (risking 2 units)
season long point totals:
Pittsburgh Penguins OVER 64.5 pts -118 (to win 2u)
Detroit Redwings OVER 41.5 pts (-120) (to win 2u)
San Jose Sharks UNDER 55.5 pts (-121) (to win 2u)
Vancouver Canucks UNDER 63.5 pts (-110) (to win 2u)
Ottawa Senators UNDER 52.5 (-140) (to win 2u)