[Hman]

GL tonight

[cecil127]

cashed a +380 parlay (isles PL & jackets ml) and hoping kings (ml) can pull off a win for a 3 teamer (~+1500). was 75 secs. away too...hoping they get it in OT!

[Prof.MJ]

cashed a +380 parlay (isles PL & jackets ml) and hoping kings (ml) can pull off a win for a 3 teamer (~+1500). was 75 secs. away too...hoping they get it in OT!

Wow, tough break for you...

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Wednesday January 15th

Yesterday was rough, as we lost 2.30 units , although we were 1 minute 15 seconds away from finishing the night with an overall gain.

Indeed, the Kings led 3-2 late in the third period, but Tampa tied the game with 1:15 left and won during the shootout.

Since the Kings were huge dogs whose odds were 3.40, we would have finished the night +1.10 instead of -2.30. Can't win them all! Let's rebound!

RECORD:

• Bets won = 73
• Bets lost = 83
• Profit = +10.49 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 4 STARS = Flyers (@ +150 or 2.50 odds, at Blues)
  

IMPORTANT!!! Here are some very interesting numbers!!!

1- Performance of all NHL System Plays this season as a function of the star rating

If the pick was based on...
1 system (rated 1-2 star(s)): +23.58 units via 245 bets (ROI = +9.6%)
2 systems (rated 3-4 stars): -5.45 units via 80 bets (ROI = -6.8%)
3+ systems (rated 5 stars): +5.53 units via 28 bets (ROI = +19.8%)

The performance was disappointing when two betting angles recommend betting a given team, but things went pretty well when 3 systems or more supported the same team.

2- Performance of all NHL System Plays this season as a function of the odds

If the odds were...

• Up to -110 (i.e. 1.91 in decimal format): -6.98 units via 46 bets
• Between -110 and +105 ("Even money plays"): +3.11 units via 35 bets
• Between +105 and +130 ("Small dogs"): +13.69 units via 86 bets
• Between +130 and +160 ("Moderate dogs"): +9.72 units via 92 bets
• +160 or more ("Big dogs"): +4.12 via 94 bets

As suspected, betting favorites didn't do well.

• All NHL system plays this season: +23.66 units via 353 bets (ROI = +6.7%)
• If we had focused on underdogs only (the last three categories): +27.53 units via 272 bets (ROI = +10.1%)

I hope you enjoyed those breakdowns! Have a nice day!

Professor MJ

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Thursday January 16th

The lone system play from last night was a winner, as the Flyers upset the Blues at St Louis in overtime!

A quick anecdote for you (you'll see why it is of great interest to you in a short while):

I realized, at some point yesterday, that I had forgotten to place my own bet on Philly. I logged into my online accounts and found out the best line on the Flyers was no longer 2.50, but rather 2.75! I was thrilled!

Here's the important takeaway:

The lines I share with you are the best "morning" lines since I post in the morning.

Perhaps the "closing" lines tend to be bigger on our NHL system plays? My betting strategies mostly follow the contrarian approach, so we tend to bet unpopular teams (for example, teams whose offense has been cold lately, or teams who have allowed tons of goals recently, or are undergoing long losing skids, etc).

For this reason, maybe the lines have a tendency to increase during the day. Maybe, maybe not. I intend to log the best closing lines for all plays we made this season (which can be obtained via Covers.com) and see how they compare to my morning lines.

Once I'm done, I'll calculate two things:
1) The proportion of games where the closing lines were bigger than the morning lines (for the system plays we made).
2) The updated profit (how much money would we have made if we had waited just before games started to place our bets?).

Obviously, I'll be happy to share the findings with you when I'm finished digging the data! We'll see if betting later during the day is more advantageous to us or not.

RECORD:

• Bets won = 74
• Bets lost = 83
• Profit = +11.99 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 4 STARS = Kings (@ +165 or 2.65 odds, at Panthers)
  
• 2 STARS = Blue Jackets (@ +125 or 2.25 odds, vs Hurricanes)
  
• 2 STARS = Ducks (@ +180 or 2.80 odds, at Predators)
  
• 1 STAR = Rangers (@ +151 or 2.51 odds, at Islanders)
  
• 1 STAR = Wild (@ +150 or 2.50 odds, vs Lightning)
  
• 1 STAR = Coyotes (@ +112 or 2.12 odds, at Canucks)

Let's gooooooooo!!

Professor MJ

[highoops5]

Thanks for the continued effort you put into these! Really enjoy following

[Prof.MJ]

Thanks for the continued effort you put into these! Really enjoy following

Hey thanks buddy, I appreciate the support!

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Friday January 17th

The betting strategies picked 6 underdogs last night.

Unbelievably, those plays went 4-2 for a huge 4.06-unit profit!

RECORD:

• Bets won = 78
• Bets lost = 85
• Profit = +16.05 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 3 STARS = RedWings (@ +208 or 3.08 odds, vs Penguins)
  

I already have the answer to the question I raised yesterday about "morning" versus "closing" lines:

• 41.2% of the time, closing line > morning line
• 43.2% of the time, morning line > closing line
• 15.5% of the time, remained the same

Also, the profit made from closing lines dropped very slightly compared to the one obtained from morning lines.

In summary, it doesn't really matter whether we bet the morning lines or the closing lines with respect to the plays recommended by my betting systems. Good to know!

Have a very nice weekend my friends!

Professor MJ

[Shev2]

Thanks for posting and tracking! Results are looking good. Hopefully you can keep it up!

[steel26]

Thanks for all you do. Good luck

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Monday January 20

RECORD:

• Bets won = 78
• Bets lost = 86
• Profit = +15.05 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 3 STARS = RedWings (@ +337 or 4.37 odds, at Avalanche)
  
• 2 STARS = Wild (@ -105 or 1.95 odds, vs Panthers)

The Detroit pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" and "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup" betting strategies.

Meanwhile, the Minnesota pick is backed by "The Hot Scorers" angle.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[cecil127]

just couldn't get behind Detroit today but here they are ahead by one early. love the wild by more than 2 tonight...bol

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Tuesday January 21

We lost both plays last night.

Let's rebound!

RECORD:

• Bets won = 78
• Bets lost = 88
• Profit = +13.05 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 2 STARS = Jets (@ +165 or 2.65 odds, at Hurricanes)
  
• 1 STAR = Panthers (@ +108 or 2.08 odds, at Blackhawks)

The Winnipeg pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting strategy.

Here are the details of this angle:

"Suppose a team has lost its past two games by scoring a maximum of 3 goals in each contest. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line greater than 1.80 (i.e. -125 in American format)."

This betting angle, over a nine-year period, generated a profit of 90.53 units through 1656 bets (ROI = +5.5%).

For example, the Jets lost their past two games by 5-2 and 7-1 scores. Since they are road underdogs, we are betting them tonight.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Wednesday January 22

We made a very tiny profit last night.

Today is the last day before the All-Star Break, and we have a couple of strong plays!

RECORD:

• Bets won = 79
• Bets lost = 89
• Profit = +13.13 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 5 STARS = Jets (@ +160 or 2.60 odds, at Blue Jackets)
  
• 4 STARS = Red Wings (@ +230 or 3.30 odds, at Wild)

The Winnipeg pick is based on "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup" betting strategies.

Notice that the Jackets have allowed just 3 goals over their past 5 games (including three shutouts), which is amazing! As a contrarian, we are betting against them.

As for Detroit, we backing them because of "The Scoring Drought" and also "The Cold Teams Matchup" angles.

The latter occurs pretty rarely. It has two different sets of criteria for betting. One of them is:

"Bet a road team coming off a losking skid of length 5+ when facing a home team that has lost exactly 1 straight game. Bet only if the road team has odds greater than 2.50 (i.e. +150 in American format)."

This system led to a 34.56-unit profit via just 44 bets over nine seasons. The 78.5% ROI is obviously astounding (), but we're talking about a small sample size.

Still, the rationale behind the strategy makes sense to me (again, as a contrarian) so I personally like it.

See you after the All-Star break!

Professor MJ

[cecil127]

jets lack of goals as of late has me taking Columbus to win to nil @ +1000
also det -1.5 @ +500
jets/jackets under 4.5 @ +270
jackets 1st period -1.5 @ +500

bol Prof!

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Monday February 10

RECORD:

• Bets won = 79
• Bets lost = 91
• Profit = +11.13 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 2 STARS = Coyotes (@ +121 or 2.21 odds, at Canadiens)
  
• 2 STARS = Panthers (@ +122 or 2.22 odds, at Flyers)
  
• 2 STARS = Lightning (@ -140 or 1.71 odds, at Blue Jackets)

The Coyotes and Panthers picks are both based on "The Scoring Drought" strategy.

Here are the details of this betting angle:

"Suppose a team has lost its past two games by scoring a maximum of 3 goals in each contest. Bet them tonight if they are on the road with a money line greater than 1.80 (i.e. -125 in American format)."

This betting angle, over a nine-year period, generated a profit of 90.53 units through 1656 bets (ROI = +5.5%).

For example, the Panthers lost their past two games by 3-2 and 7-2 scores. Since they are road underdogs, we are betting them tonight.

Best of luck folks!

Professor MJ

[PuffDaddy]

Nice job tonight.....New follower

[Prof.MJ]

Nice job tonight.....New follower

Nice, thanks PuffDaddy!!

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Tuesday February 11

We had a profitable return to action yesterday by winning two picks out of three (profit = +0.92 unit).

RECORD:

• Bets won = 81
• Bets lost = 92
• Profit = +12.05 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 5 STARS = Rangers (@ 2.18 odds, at Jets)
  
• 5 STARS = Senators (@ 3.40 odds, at Avalanche)
  
• 2 STARS = Golden Knights (@ 1.69 odds, at Wild)
  
• 2 STARS = Blackhawks (@ 2.06 odds, at Oilers)
  
• 1 STAR = Flyers (@ 2.18 odds, at Islanders)

The Senators pick is based on "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup" betting strategies.

Here are the details behind the latter strategy:

"Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight LOSSES when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight WINS. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 in decimal format."

Over a nine-year period, this strategy yielded a profit of 42.69 units via 428 bets.

In this case, Ottawa is undergoing a five-game losing skid, while Colorado is riding a four-game winning streak. Since the odds on the Sens are indeed larger than 2.25, we are betting them tonight!

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Wednesday February 12

Bad night yesterday, as we lost 2.82 units. Let's get back on our feet quickly!

RECORD:

• Bets won = 82
• Bets lost = 96
• Profit = +9.23 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 2 STARS = Blackhawks (@ +133 or 2.33 odds, at Canucks)
  
• 1 STAR = Canadiens (@ +185 or 2.85 odds, at Bruins)

The Montreal pick is backed by "The Big Upset" strategy:

"Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.70 in decimal format (i.e. +170 in American format). If Team B's next game is against a different opponent called Team C, bet Team C if its money line is greater than 1.667 in decimal format (i.e. -150 in American format, to avoid betting big favorites which did not prove to be profitable)."

Boston's last game was a 3-1 loss in Detroit, a huge upset. For this reason, we are going to bet AGAINST the Bruins tonight (since Montreal is NOT a big favorite today).

Have a nice day!

Professor MJ

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Thursday February 13

RECORD:

• Bets won = 82
• Bets lost = 98
• Profit = +7.23 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 4 STARS = Washington Capitals (@ 2.21 odds, at Avalanche)
  
• 4 STARS = Edmonton Oilers (@ 2.70 odds, at Lightning)
  
• 2 STARS = Blue Jackets (@ 1.91 odds, at Sabres)
  
• 2 STARS = Senators (@ 2.21 odds, vs Coyotes)
  
• 2 STARS = Blues (@ 2.34 odds, at Golden Knights)
  
• 1 STAR = Stars (@ 2.22 odds, at Maple Leafs)
  
• 1 STAR = Rangers (@ 2.27 odds, at Wild)

The Senators pick is backed by "The Cold Teams Matchup" strategy. It has two different sets of criteria for betting. Here is the one that applies to tonight's matchup:

"Bet a home underdog if it has lost at least 3 straight games and facing a team that has lost 1-2 game(s) in a row."

This system led to 44.95-unit gains over a nine-year period (through 141 bets).

Ottawa is indeed a home underdog and they have lost 6 straight games, while Arizona has lost one game in a row. According to the criteria above, we are backing the Sens tonight!

Cheers!

Professor MJ

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Friday February 14

4-3 last night for a 1.91-unit profit. Let's keep it up!

RECORD:

• Bets won = 86
• Bets lost = 101
• Profit = +9.14 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 2 STARS = Canadiens (@ +165 or 2.65 odds, at Penguins)
  
• 2 STARS = Sharks (@ +130 or 2.30 odds, at Jets)
  
• 1 STAR = Blue Jackets (@ -145 or 1.69 odds, vs Rangers)
  
• 1 STAR = Devils (@ +230 or 3.30 odds, at Hurricanes)

Happy Valentine's day everyone!

Professor MJ

[PuffDaddy]

GL

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Monday February 17

Hey folks, I hope you had a nice weekend!

RECORD:

• Bets won = 87
• Bets lost = 104
• Profit = +7.35 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 2 STARS = Islanders (@ +118 or 2.18 odds, at Coyotes)
  
• 1 STAR = Ducks (@ +170 or 2.70 odds, at Flames)
  
• 1 STAR = Lightning (@ -114 or 1.88 odds, at Avalanche)

Have a nice week fellows!

Professor MJ

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Tuesday February 18

We are going through a slump , but thank God we had room for error.

It's time to rebound!

RECORD:

• Bets won = 88
• Bets lost = 106
• Profit = +6.23 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 2 STARS = Blue Jackets (@ +131 or 2.31 odds, at Flyers)
  

This play is backed by "The Scoring Drought" strategy, whose details have been unveiled in a recent post.

Note: the Hurricanes meet the criteria for betting under "The Stingy Goalies" system. However, "The Big Upset" betting angle recommends betting their opponent, Nashville. Therefore, we are staying away from this matchup.

Cheers!

Professor MJ

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Wednesday February 19

On January 17th, our cumulative gain had attained +16.05 units.

Since then, the system plays have gone through a slump and are now down to a +5.23-unit profit.

Let's cross our fingers that the skid is going to stop very soon!

RECORD:

• Bets won = 88
• Bets lost = 107
• Profit = +5.23 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 2 STARS = Blackhawks (@ -129 or 1.78 odds, vs Rangers)
  
• 2 STARS = Coyotes (@ +144 or 2.44 odds, at Stars)

Both picks are based on "The Snapped Winning Streak" betting angle. Here is how it goes:

"Bet against a team whose winning streak of length 3+ was just snapped in their previous game. Bet only if your team's money line is greater than 1.667 (i.e. -150 in American format)."

This betting strategy used over a nine-year period led to gains of $87.34 through 1045 bets.

In this case, both the Rangers and the Stars just got their four-game winning streak snapped, so we are fading them tonight.

Note: the Wild meet the criteria for betting under "The Scoring Drought" system. However, "The Big Upset" betting angle recommends betting their opponent, Vancouver. Therefore, we are staying away from this matchup.

Cheers!

Professor MJ

[PuffDaddy]

just BRUTAL

[Prof.MJ]

just BRUTAL

You are right buddy!!! Bad run! The gains are getting closer to zero now...

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Thursday February 20

The bad slump continued last night with a couple of lost picks.

The cumulative winnings just keep shrinking, but let's try to stay in positive territory!

RECORD:

• Bets won = 88
• Bets lost = 109
• Profit = +3.23 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 2 STARS = Maple Leafs (@ -110 or 1.91 odds, vs Penguins)
  
• 1 STAR = Flyers (@ +108 or 2.08 odds, at Blue Jackets)

The Toronto pick is backed by "The Hot Scorers" betting angle:

"Suppose a team has scored 4+ goals in each of its past 3 games. Bet AGAINST that team if they are on the road tonight."

This system yielded a profit of 45.08 units via 332 bets over a nine-year period.

Now, the Pens have scored 5, 5 and 4 goals in their three most recent matchups. Considering they are the visiting team tonight, we are fading them.

Gooooood luck, hockey fans!

Professor MJ

[PuffDaddy]

Now thats a nice bounce off the canvas...

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Friday February 21

There we go! A perfect 2-0 last night to break out of a slump.

Let's build some momentum!

RECORD:

• Bets won = 90
• Bets lost = 109
• Profit = +5.22 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 2 STARS = Blackhawks (@ +110 or 2.10 odds, vs Predators)
  
• 1 STAR = Rangers (@ +143 or 2.43 odds, at Hurricanes)
  
• 1 STAR = Flames (@ +120 or 2.20 odds, vs Bruins)
  
• 1 STAR = Ducks (@ +144 or 2.44 odds, vs Avalanche)

The Calgary and Anaheim picks are both based on "The Porous Defense" betting angle:

"Suppose a team allows 4+ goals in each of its past two games. Bet them tonight if they are home underdogs."

Using this system over a nine-year period led to 27.64-unit gains via 267 bets.

The Flames have allowed 4 and 8 goals in their last two meetings, while the Ducks have surrendered 4 and 6 goals. Since they are indeed home underdogs, we are backing them tonight.

My birthday this weekend!

I'll talk to you again next Monday!

Professor MJ

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Tuesday February 25

RECORD:

• Bets won = 92
• Bets lost = 111
• Profit = +5.75 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 5 STARS = Sharks (@ +176 or 2.76 odds, at Flyers)
  
• 2 STARS = Flames (@ +185 or 2.85 odds, at Bruins)
  
• 2 STARS = Jets (@ +175 or 2.75 odds, at Capitals)
  
• 2 STARS = Blackhawks (@ +175 or 2.75 odds, at Blues)
  
• 1 STAR = RedWings (@ +114 or 2.14 odds, vs Devils)

The San Jose pick is based on the following three strategies: "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold vs Hot Teams Matchup."

Have a nice day!!

Professor MJ

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Wednesday February 26

We picked 5 underdogs last night, including 4 with big odds. All we needed was a couple of wins.

In the early games, the Flames upset the Bruins 5-2. Things were looking up!

However, all four remaining picks lost, including the Jets in a shootout (and the Hawks blowing a 3-1 lead).

Overall, we ended up losing 2.15 units. The slide continues, as we are approaching the break-even point.

RECORD:

• Bets won = 93
• Bets lost = 115
• Profit = +3.60 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's lone pick based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 4 STARS = Sabres (@ +185 or 2.85 odds, at Avalanche)
  

This pick is based on the following two betting strategies: "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Hot Teams Matchup."

Here are the details about the latter:

"Bet a road team coming off 1-2 straight win(s) when facing a home team coming off 3+ straight wins."

This system yielded a profit of 66.87 units via 483 bets over a nine-year period.

According to this betting strategy, since the Sabres have won two games in a row and the Avs are riding a three-game winning streak, we're going to back Buffalo.

Good luck!

Professor MJ

[Prof.MJ]

NHL System Picks for Thursday February 27

The slide continued last night, as the system plays have been stinking lately!

The season profit has now gone from 16 units to less than 3 units right now...

RECORD:

• Bets won = 93
• Bets lost = 116
• Profit = +2.60 units (from RISKING 1 unit on every play)

Today's picks based on my 10 NHL betting systems:

• 3 STARS = Stars (@ +155 or 2.55 odds, at Bruins)
  
• 1 STAR = Flames (@ +115 or 2.15 odds, at Predators)
  
• 1 STAR = Devils (@ +129 or 2.29 odds, at Sharks)
  
• 1 STAR = RedWings (@ +188 or 2.88 odds, vs Wild)

Following the recent slump, I figured I'd issue some warnings about some games.

With the season coming to an end fairly soon, the motivation level plays a large role.

For this reason, I advise being cautious about the Detroit pick. Minnesota is fighting for its playoff lives, while the Wings are eliminated.

Still, my role is to point out which teams meet the criteria for betting under systems I developed. I'm not going to omit/remove plays because I don't like them.

The objective was to find out whether those betting strategies would do well or not, so we're not going to change course and I'm still going to report such plays.

However, from a betting perspective I just wanted to issue some additional insight.

Have a good day (snowstorm here in Quebec City today!).

Professor MJ

[grey area]

Leaning Wings myself goodluck tonight