Good afternoon,
As everyone knows, our "Ref Plays" only look at the assigned refs for that a particular game and determine if they, on average, call more penalties or less penalties. If more, we deem that an over play, and if less an under play. Yesterday, we start tracking which refs call significantly more penalties on the road team. Our thoughts are, if both refs call significantly more penalties on the vising team, the home team should have a greater chance of winning. For example, below are the ref stats on the Tor/Wash game which shows that the assigned refs call a combines 23% more penalties on the visiting team, and thus the home team, Washington, should have an additional advantage, and Washington did win. Yesterday, (and you can check these stats yourself if you don't believe me), but a total of five home teams fit into this stat and they ALL WON. They were: Wash, Colum, Edm, Ana and San Jose. The web site to check is "scouting the refs"
Below is for the Toro/Wash game:
More Penl on Rd % 13.0% (7) 10.0% (14)
Of course one day does not guarantee success of this theory, but I felt I would share it with everyone and post these plays for the next couple of days for all to evaluate. Yesterday all the teams were favorite between -110 to -125 but keep in mind the odds may be significantly greater at times. We'll post and everyone can decide for themselves.
DD