[jjgold]

Yeh it is that easy

[BIGDAY]

[jjgold]

Elk get better I want to fuk you up

[2daBank]

I like Avs to steal a game, not sure if it be gm 1 or 2 but rolling w them here. Think sharks might have shot their load in that crazy gm 7.

Celtics +7.5

Mlb unders 8.5 in

Cle/hou
Mia/Philly
Laa/kc

Parlay GS ml with cardinals and anything else you like!!

[Hman]

Anyone taking a chance on the clippers?

[jjgold]

clips yes + points

[KVB]

No, it's time for GS -9 to pay.

The Contrarian Fund has a Total so far today...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

971

26-Apr

DET/CWS OVER 9 (+105)

...

[Shev2]

Did quite a bit of live betting yesterday...not exactly looking to do that today. I got an awful price on that Cubs Dbacks under last night before the line moved

[KVB]

Did quite a bit of live betting yesterday...not exactly looking to do that today...

I've been hitting live quite a bit recently too.

Been winning, which is probably not so good because it just encourages more...lol.

Finally lost a few regressed some.

Good Luck Shev, keep up the betting, tracking and posting.

[jjgold]

KVB excellent work

[Shev2]

I've been hitting live quite a bit recently too.
Been winning, which is probably not so good because it just encourages more...lol.
Finally lost a few regressed some.

I've been applying more or less a value investing type of approach to live betting overs in basketball and it has worked really well the last two months. I've analyzed every team's schedule and scores and compared it to the over/under line before the game. If the teams get cold at any point during the first half or three quarters, I'll scoop an over well below the line set before the game, hoping the teams basically revert to the mean.

Here is my analysis from Golden State and LA Clippers. I think I'm missing the last week of the regular season in the data but it's pretty much the whole year.


I usually look for the point at which both teams have hit the over 75% of the times, in this case I'll be looking for about a 12 point movement from the line I see now at 231.5. It's not very likely the live betting over/under ever reaches 219.5, but if it does or goes below that, I'll be putting a ton of juice in this game.

[jjgold]

I've been applying more or less a value investing type of approach to live betting overs in basketball and it has worked really well the last two months. I've analyzed every team's schedule and scores and compared it to the over/under line before the game. If the teams get cold at any point during the first half or three quarters, I'll scoop an over well below the line set before the game, hoping the teams basically revert to the mean.

Here is my analysis from Golden State and LA Clippers. I think I'm missing the last week of the regular season in the data but it's pretty much the whole year.


I usually look for the point at which both teams have hit the over 75% of the times, in this case I'll be looking for about a 12 point movement from the line I see now at 231.5. It's not very likely the live betting over/under ever reaches 219.5, but if it does or goes below that, I'll be putting a ton of juice in this game.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Elk get better I want to fuk you up

[Shev2]

I'm putting the DD used for the Cubs here in case anyone is interested...current under 9.0 is at even money on Bovada. I think there's value here because both starting pitchers are slightly better than average, according to 538's elo data. Based on the chart below, pitchers with comparable or better rating hit the under between 60 and 70% of the time. Hendricks for Chicago has a pitcher_adj of +7 and Ray for Arizona is a +13.



And here is the performance so far in 2019

[KVB]

shev donate to cureangelman and go pro, you're one of us pal.

[Shev2]

shev donate to cureangelman and go pro, you're one of us pal.

I quit my job today. Going to have to win a little bit or start working again before I go pro

[jjgold]

[2daBank]

I like Avs to steal a game, not sure if it be gm 1 or 2 but rolling w them here. Think sharks might have shot their load in that crazy gm 7.

Celtics +7.5

Mlb unders 8.5 in

Cle/hou
Mia/Philly
Laa/kc

Parlay GS ml with cardinals and anything else you like!!

All 3 mlb under 8.5s can be had for plus money. Love it.

[KVB]

Nice Gold, I still think Clips are in trouble, including a late back door GS cover 1st half because it's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund is asking Miami to step up, could be trouble...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

951

26-Apr

MIA +161

All I can say is...fuk...

[KVB]

Here we goooooooo!!

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

959

CIN +139

...

We're grinding now.

[KVB]

Picked up KC in the Contrarian Fund as well...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

976

26-Apr

KC +105

Plays starting to generate here...I hope Miami wasn't a mistake...

And we grind on...

[Shev2]

Here we goooooooo!!


We're grinding now.

This thread is much better than other threads

[betsmart]

Yeh it is that easy

Good Luck
On the same play Isles/Sharks reverse

[Louisvillekid1]

Reverse

only north east coast guys know

even then

love it

[jjgold]

Reverse one of the most underrated things out there

Three or more teams in a reverse is called the birdcage

[KVB]

3 or more teams in a reverse bet

Reverse bets are simply "if bets" that work in both directions. This can be a combination of 2-4 Teams. All reverse bets are double action: the remaining bets in the sequence will be placed if the preceding bet is a win, a "push," or is cancelled for any reason. An "if bet" (double action) follows the sequence "if Team 1 wins, ties or cancels then Team 2." Placing a reverse bet will include that sequence and its opposite: "if Team 1 wins, ties or cancels then Team 2" AND "if Team 2 wins, ties or cancels then Team 1." As you can see, reverse bets contain two "if bet" sequences, and you must lay down an equal amount for each one: an if bet for $110 is $220 as a reverse bet.
Example:
A+B Side B+A Side
Denver -7 Miami +6
If Win, Tie or cancel To If Win, Tie or cancel To
Miami +6 Denver -7

The advantage of playing reverse bets is that you are still able to limit your exposure to losses while expanding the possible combinations that will produce winning wagers.
"If bets" are used by many players as a method of money management. The advantage of playing an if bet is that it reduces your exposure to losses. Like a parlay, an if bet links together 2 or more individual plays and circled games may not be added to the if bet. Unlike a parlay, an if bet is not an all-or-nothing wager: the individual plays remain individual wagers and pay at the listed money line if they win. If bets can be a combination of 2-6 Teams. All selections are made active if the first team wins, ties or cancels, you would then have a straight wager(s) on the remaining teams. Players have an option of choosing the conditions of an if bet: (Win, Win/Tie, Lose, Lose/Tie).

Example:
Raiders -7 wager $110 for $100
If win, tie or cancel
Oilers +6 wager $220 for $200
And
Vikings -6 wager $55 for $50
The initial cost of the wager will be determined by the highest amount the play can lose. In this example the initial cost would be $275 because in the event the first team ties or cancels you would need enough funds to cover the next two wagers.
Let's look at an if bet that contains just two plays. You bet on an initial team or total, if that wager wins then the second wager that you chose will automatically be placed. You should therefore always list the bet you are most confident about first. If your initial bet loses, then the second wager is not placed. The status of the linked bets has nothing to do with the game starting times or what order they are played, it is strictly a logical relation. Even if the first game in your if bet is played hours after the second one, the status of the second bet must wait for the first game's results.
The amount of the total wager is collected at the time you place the entire bet sequence.

The amount of all individual wagers that comprise the if bet could be different, they must just be changed once in the final stages of confirming the bet on the bet amount section.

[KVB]

...The Contrarian Fund has a Total so far today...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

971

26-Apr

DET/CWS OVER 9 (+105)

...

...

Cashed in the 4th inning.

[jjgold]

Not good

[Bostongambler]

Hey Mario reverse yourself and go back in the womb.

[Louisvillekid1]

Kvb prob wrote something accurate there

all I know

is $300 reverse winning both -110 sides

gives me $1200

if you lose both , deserve to pay double juice

Stupid fukkin BMOC had video about it

saying double parlay

lol no

it’s a double if bet

jeez do people outside NE

even know what a rollin if is?

When BMOC said that on one his vids

its when I began to lose it

i.e.

$300 parlay on MNF with total and side pays 2.6/1

$300r on same pays 4/1

split parlay lose -$300

split Reverse -$360

win both Reverse +$1200

win both parlay +780

if you have a strong play say 70% winner on a side

which will be correlated say 56% of the time with total

then why not go for 4/1

look, math guys gonna kill me

but certain wagers correlate

look , books like billy hill won’t even take total / side parlayed @ 2.6/1

let alone an action reverse

Side tracking :

you know how many times when I was living @ Taj

would put $60 on bookmaker

play a 3 team parlay rollin if with a 4 teamer for 30-40% profit of the 3 teamer

Fukk value

fukk edge

when your settle figure is getting close

and your a good capper

Having a strong play with the above criteria

20-30 cents of value means nothing

that when a 4/1 payout on 2-0 sweep

can pay off

[Louisvillekid1]

My point is

to 90% of bettors

or already play way to many games

those value cents mean nothing

cuz it’s week by week envelope



90% play on week to week basis

[jjgold]

Kid you forgot more than most guys know

[KVB]

That was a JJ Gold post I quoted above, not mine.

[Louisvillekid1]

All this math is bullshit

because less than 10% specifically use a bankroll for gambling during a season

that is the true books edge

because you collect your envelope and go to bar and spend

or pay bills

or take someone on date

than next week you lose from a lower standpoint

your know 5-6 wins behind before you start next week

and who gambles?

Mostly idiots who need money , trying to a make a score

just to do , exactly what I just said above

now they are buried

chasing

losing

paying

....

iVe been there

I know this life / game

Can I, personally beat it?

Yes

but most are one tire flat , or transmission blown

or life shit away payment

from losing all that

if you can’t separate

you can’t win

think about it

everybody has accountants in real life jobs

you need same in this one

HAS TO BE COMPLETELY SEPARATE from life

let me bottom line this for you with a golf metaphor

Try breaking 80 first

club quality only matters after that

If you can’t break 80 with average clubs

stop wasting x mas gifts on new callaway irons

and Bertha drivers

ITS NOT FOR YOU.

Break 80 then you qualify

for the cents to matter in gambling terms

cents = yardage

for you fools

[Louisvillekid1]

That was a JJ Gold post I quoted above, not mine.

Lol

well you could understand

how I could confuse the 2

one has content and font continuity

typically like your handle

other has 9 words