1. #1
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 89,465
    Betpoints: 72878

    NHL Playoff Plays - 2019

    WEDNESDAY, 4/10
    Blues +105 (5 Dimes)
    Golden Knights +120 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 121-123-7, +13.59

    Regular Season: 121-123-7, +13.59
    Playoffs: 0-0, 0.00

  2. #2
    High3rEl3m3nt
    SBR's #1 Contractor
    High3rEl3m3nt's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-28-10
    Posts: 7,975
    Betpoints: 3279

    LT, are you playing any series bets?

  3. #3
    eaglesfan371
    The great game of POT...LIMIT...OMAHA
    eaglesfan371's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-07-19
    Posts: 4,084
    Betpoints: 119

    LT question for you.

    Have been in discussion with a few people over this. How much would you estimate home advantage impacts the series line? 5-10, 1020, 20-30 cents?

  4. #4
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 89,465
    Betpoints: 72878

    Quote Originally Posted by eaglesfan371 View Post
    LT question for you.

    Have been in discussion with a few people over this. How much would you estimate home advantage impacts the series line? 5-10, 1020, 20-30 cents?
    There is no single answer to this because not all home ices are created equal and that get compounded over a 7-game series.

  5. #5
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 89,465
    Betpoints: 72878

    Quote Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt View Post
    LT, are you playing any series bets?
    I don't plan to, although I do like both road teams I took tonight to win series.

  6. #6
    Mike Huntertz
    Mike Huntertz's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-19-09
    Posts: 10,076
    Betpoints: 7812

    Well done for the reg season and GL in the playoffs.
    Appreciate your work.
    I'm with you on Vegas and against on StL

  7. #7
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 89,465
    Betpoints: 72878

    2 NHL Plays Thursday

    THURSDAY, 4/11
    Maple Leafs +125 (Bookmaker)
    Avalanche +167 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 122-124-7, +13.64

    Regular Season: 121-123-7, +13.59
    Playoffs: 1-1, +0.05

  8. #8
    NBAtony
    NBAtony's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-28-17
    Posts: 169
    Betpoints: 808

    your missing the best dog tonight!

    bol

  9. #9
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 89,465
    Betpoints: 72878

    Quote Originally Posted by NBAtony View Post
    your missing the best dog tonight!

    bol
    I actually took Carolina in contests. LOL

    Just don't like them enough to bet real $$$

  10. #10
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 89,465
    Betpoints: 72878

    3 NHL Plays Friday

    FRIDAY, 4/12
    Blue Jackets / Lightning UNDER 6.5 +105 (Heritage)
    Islanders +110 (Heritage)
    Golden Knights +120 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 123-125-7, +13.89

    Regular Season: 121-123-7, +13.59
    Playoffs: 2-2, +0.30

  11. #11
    eaglesfan371
    The great game of POT...LIMIT...OMAHA
    eaglesfan371's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-07-19
    Posts: 4,084
    Betpoints: 119

    LT I'm confused man.

    STL was +105, you took them last time. STL is available again at +105. What has changed?

    NYI you did not take last time but now are taking. Any thoughts? Obviously some self explanation from NYI since last time was +100 and now +110 but confused why you are not taking STL again.

  12. #12
    GzaTheGenius
    GzaTheGenius's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-12-13
    Posts: 4,087
    Betpoints: 1680

    Quote Originally Posted by eaglesfan371 View Post
    LT I'm confused man.

    STL was +105, you took them last time. STL is available again at +105. What has changed?

    NYI you did not take last time but now are taking. Any thoughts? Obviously some self explanation from NYI since last time was +100 and now +110 but confused why you are not taking STL again.
    Easier to win 2 at home than 2 on the road

  13. #13
    eaglesfan371
    The great game of POT...LIMIT...OMAHA
    eaglesfan371's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-07-19
    Posts: 4,084
    Betpoints: 119

    Quote Originally Posted by GzaTheGenius View Post
    Easier to win 2 at home than 2 on the road
    While I understand that I would also argue that games are not dependent on previous games, every game is a new event. That is like saying 35 in roulette just hit, so donít bet them next round.

    I do not see how the circumstances changed. No major player was injured, same location, relatively close 1st game, how has that affected his model so that STL is not a play?

  14. #14
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 89,465
    Betpoints: 72878

    Quote Originally Posted by eaglesfan371 View Post
    While I understand that I would also argue that games are not dependent on previous games
    Correct during the season BUT I do make slight motivation adjustments during playoff series, although not nearly as much as public believes. I think line is overadjusted for Isles (I have game +100 both ways) while I think Blues are now neutral as I get Winnipeg -104 tonight. I never said anything but model actually had St. Louis FAVORED -108 on road Game 1.

  15. #15
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 89,009
    Betpoints: 54

    Quote Originally Posted by eaglesfan371 View Post
    LT I'm confused man.

    STL was +105, you took them last time. STL is available again at +105. What has changed?

    NYI you did not take last time but now are taking. Any thoughts? Obviously some self explanation from NYI since last time was +100 and now +110 but confused why you are not taking STL again.
    While I kinda wanna play stl again it goes against my nhl playoff strategy as for the most part in the playoffs once I get a road cash I typically back off and wait to try and attempt another road cash when series moves for games 3-4. Often I switch and play the fav if dog wins the 1st but not in this case.

    My thinking is after road team flips the series to them having the home ice advantage they are prone to letting up while the losing team becomes desperate.. the reason this one is blues or nothing for me is simple, other than being a fan boy I feel like jets might be somewhat demoralized cause imo they played about the best they possibly could and still lost thanks to Bennington standing on his head keeping blues in the game the 1st 2 periods where they were outplayed!!! Not trying to give back my nice cash on gm 1 so thinking half the bet of gm 1. Gl whatever you decide.

  16. #16
    stackz125
    stackz125's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-03-16
    Posts: 5,905
    Betpoints: 96

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Correct during the season BUT I do make slight motivation adjustments during playoff series, although not nearly as much as public believes. I think line is overadjusted for Isles (I have game +100 both ways) while I think Blues are now neutral as I get Winnipeg -104 tonight. I never said anything but model actually had St. Louis FAVORED -108 on road Game 1.
    Wow.

    I actually think Winnipeg home ice is worth a lot more than other teams in the league.

    I think jets win tonight. Statement game tonight.

  17. #17
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 89,009
    Betpoints: 54

    Quote Originally Posted by stackz125 View Post
    Wow.

    I actually think Winnipeg home ice is worth a lot more than other teams in the league.

    I think jets win tonight. Statement game tonight.
    Home ice is way overrated imo. Statement game? The only statement is blues the better team and gonna take this series in 5 or 6 tops imo. Jets gave it all they had in game 1, played incredibly physical and had a bunch of excellent scoring chances but Bennington was lights out. Jets could certainly win this game but far as statements go they up against the superior team.

  18. #18
    lakerboy
    lakerboy's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-02-09
    Posts: 90,237
    Betpoints: 1598

    Why Vegas? Books don't care for them. It's a home series
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/11/2022


  19. #19
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 89,465
    Betpoints: 72878

    Quote Originally Posted by stackz125 View Post
    Wow.

    I actually think Winnipeg home ice is worth a lot more than other teams in the league.

    I think jets win tonight. Statement game tonight.
    Right but I have St. Louis rated higher (or Winnipeg rated lower) than most.

  20. #20
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 89,465
    Betpoints: 72878

    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Why Vegas? Books don't care for them. It's a home series
    See Post #5.

  21. #21
    lakerboy
    lakerboy's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-02-09
    Posts: 90,237
    Betpoints: 1598

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    See Post #5.
    That's fine but the line opened the same with no shade to Vegas. I just don't think they win tonight but good luck.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/11/2022


  22. #22
    kingdom
    kingdom's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-25-10
    Posts: 9,745
    Betpoints: 295

    Quote Originally Posted by eaglesfan371 View Post
    While I understand that I would also argue that games are not dependent on previous games, every game is a new event. That is like saying 35 in roulette just hit, so don’t bet them next round.

    I do not see how the circumstances changed. No major player was injured, same location, relatively close 1st game, how has that affected his model so that STL is not a play?
    jets are a good home team. been a tough stretch and they blew game the other night. doubt highly they lose again tonight.

  23. #23
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 89,009
    Betpoints: 54

    Quote Originally Posted by kingdom View Post
    jets are a good home team. been a tough stretch and they blew game the other night. doubt highly they lose again tonight.
    Why, they played best they could. Blues have played way better down the stretch than they did the other night. Could easily see blues go up 2-0. Home ice so overrated in playoffs.

  24. #24
    kingdom
    kingdom's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-25-10
    Posts: 9,745
    Betpoints: 295

    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    Why, they played best they could. Blues have played way better down the stretch than they did the other night. Could easily see blues go up 2-0. Home ice so overrated in playoffs.
    i think they wore down at end of season and maybe a little disinterest. look at that march schedule in the beginning they play 8 playoff teams in a row and they went 7-3 to start the month and kind of slacked off. they know season is over if they lose tonight so if you think they gave their best in game 1, you expect less with season on line? but word is sharps are all over st lou so i guess none of this may matter anyways lol.

  25. #25
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 89,009
    Betpoints: 54

    Quote Originally Posted by kingdom View Post
    i think they wore down at end of season and maybe a little disinterest. look at that march schedule in the beginning they play 8 playoff teams in a row and they went 7-3 to start the month and kind of slacked off. they know season is over if they lose tonight so if you think they gave their best in game 1, you expect less with season on line? but word is sharps are all over st lou so i guess none of this may matter anyways lol.

    I think when you give everything you got in gm 1 and it gets stolen from ya by a hot goalie it can be a bit demoralizing for sure. Ultimately i just think blues the superior team, lot of money invested in this roster just took them some time to get it together (and a new coach and goalie!), since turn of the year nobody been playing better hockey than the blues.. jets could certainly win tonight but I couldnít resist plus money, Iím riding blues all series as I think they finish jets off in 5, 6 games tops.

    Maybe sounds homerish but Iím usually disliked around this parts for normally being against blues in the playoffs. I honestly think this year different and they primed to make a deep run.

  26. #26
    kingdom
    kingdom's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-25-10
    Posts: 9,745
    Betpoints: 295

    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    I think when you give everything you got in gm 1 and it gets stolen from ya by a hot goalie it can be a bit demoralizing for sure. Ultimately i just think blues the superior team, lot of money invested in this roster just took them some time to get it together (and a new coach and goalie!), since turn of the year nobody been playing better hockey than the blues.. jets could certainly win tonight but I couldn’t resist plus money, I’m riding blues all series as I think they finish jets off in 5, 6 games tops.

    Maybe sounds homerish but I’m usually disliked around this parts for normally being against blues in the playoffs. I honestly think this year different and they primed to make a deep run.
    they damn sure got hot at the right time. it was crazy after the all star break and i kept waiting to see if it was just a fluke. i think they win the series but jets should put up a hell of a fight tonight. gonna be physical and ugly.

  27. #27
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 89,009
    Betpoints: 54

    Quote Originally Posted by kingdom View Post
    they damn sure got hot at the right time. it was crazy after the all star break and i kept waiting to see if it was just a fluke. i think they win the series but jets should put up a hell of a fight tonight. gonna be physical and ugly.
    If it anything like gm 1 should be a incredible game. Jets were laying dudes out for sure. Blues pp was really bad, think if they get that figured out they could take commanding lead... honestly I think the bad play early in the season was the outlier for this team, they got one of highest payrolls in the sport I believe, really good roster and now they have possibly the hottest goalie going, they gonna be a tough out if Bennington sustains that level of play!!

  28. #28
    kingdom
    kingdom's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-25-10
    Posts: 9,745
    Betpoints: 295

    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    If it anything like gm 1 should be a incredible game. Jets were laying dudes out for sure. Blues pp was really bad, think if they get that figured out they could take commanding lead... honestly I think the bad play early in the season was the outlier for this team, they got one of highest payrolls in the sport I believe, really good roster and now they have possibly the hottest goalie going, they gonna be a tough out if Bennington sustains that level of play!!
    damn. tb down 2-0 in first. nhl playoffs anybody got a chance for sure.

  29. #29
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 89,009
    Betpoints: 54

    Jets folding like a cheap suit. If blues could just cash one these PPs this thing be over early., damn just hit post.

  30. #30
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 89,009
    Betpoints: 54

    Blues pp struggles continue and instead of commanding lead it tied.

  31. #31
    eaglesfan371
    The great game of POT...LIMIT...OMAHA
    eaglesfan371's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-07-19
    Posts: 4,084
    Betpoints: 119

    LT I tried getting you to come back on board man

    Wish I had been playing individual games now lol have very large series bets instead NYI & STL

  32. #32
    lakerboy
    lakerboy's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-02-09
    Posts: 90,237
    Betpoints: 1598

    Blues win
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/11/2022


  33. #33
    kingdom
    kingdom's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-25-10
    Posts: 9,745
    Betpoints: 295

    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    I think when you give everything you got in gm 1 and it gets stolen from ya by a hot goalie it can be a bit demoralizing for sure. Ultimately i just think blues the superior team, lot of money invested in this roster just took them some time to get it together (and a new coach and goalie!), since turn of the year nobody been playing better hockey than the blues.. jets could certainly win tonight but I couldn’t resist plus money, I’m riding blues all series as I think they finish jets off in 5, 6 games tops.

    Maybe sounds homerish but I’m usually disliked around this parts for normally being against blues in the playoffs. I honestly think this year different and they primed to make a deep run.
    could be. young team so see if they can handle early success. i think chasing jets at a decent price will win a unit. don't think they get swept here.

  34. #34
    eaglesfan371
    The great game of POT...LIMIT...OMAHA
    eaglesfan371's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-07-19
    Posts: 4,084
    Betpoints: 119

    St. Louis will win this round and next round. They will easily finish off Dallas and even against predators I think they will 4-3 them. Binnington is gold.

  35. #35
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 89,465
    Betpoints: 72878

    Meanwhile while thread got sidetracked:

    3-0 , all at + odds

123 Last
Top