1. #1
    Philmill
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    NHL Thursday

    San Jose Sharks +1.5 -255
    * 94% chance to cover PL

    ​San Jose Sharks ML -110

  2. #2
    Hman
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    GL Phil

  3. #3
    Philmill
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philmill View Post
    San Jose Sharks +1.5 -255
    * 94% chance to cover PL

    ​San Jose Sharks ML -110
    ​2-0 Thursday

  4. #4
    hotcross
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    made it look easy

  5. #5
    Philmill
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    Quote Originally Posted by hotcross View Post
    made it look easy
    When my chance to cover PL % is over 80% ...I am 12–0 on the PL in 2019....
    Lets hope it’s stays automatic...

  6. #6
    hotcross
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    think I follow what you're saying, but...

    I'd still like to see the same entire amount risked on the dog moneyline in those situations

  7. #7
    Philmill
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    Quote Originally Posted by hotcross View Post
    think I follow what you're saying, but...

    I'd still like to see the same entire amount risked on the dog moneyline in those situations
    I remember you saying that before ... and that’s real goooood handicapping ....!!

  8. #8
    Philmill
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    I need to take the time and back check my PL winners and see how many of the dog money lines cashed... I think half of them (6 of 12)where on the Rangers and they lost on the ML but the PL cashed/covered for the most part....Rangers have be PL +1.5 covering animals this year.... but fall short of winning the match in many games.

  9. #9
    hotcross
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    Your further comments got me thinking.

    Since you've identified something to say the dog covering the +1.5 is near certainty in these situations, while at the same time the moneyline dog is still probable BUT less certain, then it seems to be prudent to ONLY play the +1.5 puckline in these games.

    Also I know what you mean about sometimes a specific team gets in a stretch when they come close to winning often, but lose by one. Same in baseball.

    So, depending on the level of detail in your record keeping, I'm thinking maybe it should be the games where you have a bit lower amount of certainty about the dog... those could be bigger +plus moneyline dogs, which then should be the games where only the moneyline is played, while omitting the +1.5 play. Because what I said about playing the risked amount on the moneyline seems to be more justifiable if the odds payout is much higher. Say only when +150 or higher...? Thus 1 win can mostly cover for 2 losses on the moneyline. Of course we hope it goes 2-1 or 3-0 W/L

  10. #10
    Mike Huntertz
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philmill View Post
    ​2-0 Thursday
    Where did you get 94% to cover PL?
    Nice double hit.

  11. #11
    Philmill
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    NHL Friday

    little late posting my play … but still no score

    ​Chicago ML/+1.5

  12. #12
    Philmill
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Huntertz View Post
    Where did you get 94% to cover PL?
    Nice double hit.
    Hi Mike,
    I have been with a site for years that have a lot of stats that are helpful in capping games... its called
    zcode**** its pretty expensive but worth it if a guy is laying numbers... its a must have....
    Hope that helps...Phil

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