1. 02-20-19 01:54 PM #36
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I understand variance Arch.. I don't bet like this in any other sport. I prefer + odd prop betting myself in Boxing and MMA actually. I'm up money on the year betting these types of NO OT bets. Just very confident with NO OT bets after team capping trends..

    Soccer you can do the same but it's easier to win NO OT bets in Hockey then Soccer I believe.

    Just my take..
    Good job being up. But remember, the books are offering the bets because they have the edge. You don’t model, and while you may understand basic variance and value, you can’t apply either in this instance so they mean nothing.

    I hope you keep winning but this is no different than betting a heavy fav on the ml at -355 unless you’re modling the sport, and you’re not

    What % of games even go to OT? Does the total affect the “NO OT” price? What % of games involving the two teams tonight go to OT? Etc... so many variables, you have to be able figure out which ones mean something, weight those, and then cap to determine value. And then you have to adjust your model on the go as books adjust to you.

    When you get limited for betting this type of bet, you’ll know you’re on to something
    Last edited by The Kraken; 02-20-19 at 01:57 PM.
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  2. 02-20-19 01:55 PM #37
    Chi_archie
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I understand variance Arch.. I don't bet like this in any other sport. I prefer + odd prop betting myself in Boxing and MMA actually. I'm up money on the year betting these types of NO OT bets. Just very confident with NO OT bets after team capping trends..

    Soccer you can do the same but it's easier to win NO OT bets in Hockey then Soccer I believe.

    Just my take..
    Yes, the up this year part is the variance
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  3. 02-20-19 02:37 PM #38
    ikid2groove415
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    This lines been offer for decades - sure you can go on a good run - but a bad run will buried you cuz
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  4. 02-20-19 10:25 PM #39
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    ^^^Well fellas let's see if I can do 10 in a row in this thread? I'll post my play pending every day til I fail...

    Here is #2 play tonight. Let's see if this hits?

    Pending2/20/19 8:35pm NHL Hockey 70 WPG/COL no overtime -355* vs WPG/COL goes to overtime



    Winnipeg is basically allergic to over time games in recent days.. They either lose or win in regulation lately.. Colorado is basically the same at home.. Win or lose in regulation.. Last time these 2 clubs played each other there was a 3 goal difference in scoring at the end.

    Highly doubt this game goes into over time.https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/winnipe...he-2019022017/
    Extremely easy tonight as expected. https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/winnipe...he-2019022017/

    On to game 3 pick tomorrow we go.. That's 2 down and cashed.. Just grinding. Nothing to see here yet.

    $355.00 $100.00 Win 2/20/19 8:35pm NHL Hockey 70 WPG/COL no overtime -355* vs WPG/COL goes to overtime
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  5. 02-21-19 10:40 AM #40
    JIBBBY
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    Todays pick.. https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/st-loui...rs-2019022109/

    Dallas hasn't sniffed OT in a very long time.. Usually wins by 2 or more goals or loses by 2 or more goals. On the flip St Louis Blues just wins games lately, on a monster winning streak of 11 straight.. That's an auto play for me on the straight until that streak blows up.

    Anyways, the Blues are very strong playing on the road and seem to always win by more then 2 goals in recent games.. I highly doubt this game goes into OT..

    PICK #3 - Let's see if this cashes for 3 in row now?


    $345.00 $100.00 Pending 2/21/19 8:35pm NHL Hockey 18 STL/DAL no overtime -345* vs STL/DAL goes to overtime



    11 game winning streak auto play.
    $125.00 $100.00 Pending 2/21/19 8:35pm NHL Hockey 17 St. Louis Blues -125* vs Dallas Stars
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  6. 02-21-19 11:17 PM #41
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Todays pick.. https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/st-loui...rs-2019022109/

    Dallas hasn't sniffed OT in a very long time.. Usually wins by 2 or more goals or loses by 2 or more goals. On the flip St Louis Blues just wins games lately, on a monster winning streak of 11 straight.. That's an auto play for me on the straight until that streak blows up.

    Anyways, the Blues are very strong playing on the road and seem to always win by more then 2 goals in recent games.. I highly doubt this game goes into OT..

    PICK #3 - Let's see if this cashes for 3 in row now?


    $345.00 $100.00 Pending 2/21/19 8:35pm NHL Hockey 18 STL/DAL no overtime -345* vs STL/DAL goes to overtime



    11 game winning streak auto play.
    $125.00 $100.00 Pending 2/21/19 8:35pm NHL Hockey 17 St. Louis Blues -125* vs Dallas Stars

    Cash it 3 in row now. Game was never close, 3 goal margin in the end... Next.. Going for 4 straight tomorrow... https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/st-loui...rs-2019022109/

    The 11 game win streak ends though for the Blues which I was riding.. Had to end at some point.. Oh well was a good ride while it lasted.


    $345.00 $100.00 Win 2/21/19 8:35pm NHL Hockey 18 STL/DAL no overtime -345* vs STL/DAL goes to overtime
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  7. 02-22-19 12:34 AM #42
    5918mike
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    Interesting concept, good luck Jibs.
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  8. 02-22-19 10:20 AM #43
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5918mike View Post
    Interesting concept, good luck Jibs.
    Maybe the least interesting concept in 2019, but ok
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  9. 02-22-19 12:55 PM #44
    JIBBBY
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    #4 pick and going for 4 straight now. Both teams look to win in regulation, that's how both teams are trending lately... Can't see this game going to OT.. https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/columbu...rs-2019022214/



    $390.00 $100.00 Pending 2/22/19 7:05pm NHL Hockey 24 CLM/OTT no overtime -390* vs CLM/OTT goes to overtime
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  10. 02-22-19 12:57 PM #45
    Chi_archie
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    get em
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  11. 02-22-19 08:31 PM #46
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    #4 pick and going for 4 straight now. Both teams look to win in regulation, that's how both teams are trending lately... Can't see this game going to OT.. https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/columbu...rs-2019022214/



    $390.00 $100.00 Pending 2/22/19 7:05pm NHL Hockey 24 CLM/OTT no overtime -390* vs CLM/OTT goes to overtime
    3 goal margin final.. Easy money.. Next.. https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/columbu...rs-2019022214/


    $390.00 $100.00 Win 2/22/19 7:05pm NHL Hockey 24 CLM/OTT no overtime -390* vs CLM/OTT goes to overtime
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  12. 02-22-19 08:35 PM #47
    Chi_archie
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    cash it!
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  13. 02-22-19 10:21 PM #48
    danshan11
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    what limits are you seeing on those OT bets?
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  14. 02-22-19 10:24 PM #49
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    what limits are you seeing on those OT bets?
    That's a problem and another thread for that. Will discuss that on another day. Not easy to maintain as you do get limited in a hurry on some books. 5 dimes being one of them unfortunately...
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  15. 02-23-19 09:36 AM #50
    danshan11
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    I still think the line is efficient and if you are not somehow beating that line, you eventually will get wiped out. the one slight advantage is at that high of a line I would assume the big favorite is getting a very small portion of the vig. which would make it easier to try and beat these lines. do they move enough to overcome juice?
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  16. 02-23-19 10:21 AM #51
    shocka1212
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    That's a problem and another thread for that. Will discuss that on another day. Not easy to maintain as you do get limited in a hurry on some books. 5 dimes being one of them unfortunately...
    they don't let me bet more than 100 on 1H totals in CBB... pretty annoying Imo
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  17. 02-23-19 04:17 PM #52
    JIBBBY
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    #5 pick.. Colorado is immune to over time games lately. They either win big or lose big. I don't see this one going to OT simply put. Nothing more needs to be said.. Let's see if this sticks for 5 in a row now?

    https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/colorad...rs-2019022327/

    $380.00 $100.00 Pending 2/23/19 5:35pm NHL Hockey 46 COL/NAS no overtime -380* vs COL/NAS goes to overtime
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  18. 02-23-19 04:40 PM #53
    Razorbacks1
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    Damn Jibs 4 in a row! Fantastic! Keep going!
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  19. 02-23-19 07:19 PM #54
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    #5 pick.. Colorado is immune to over time games lately. They either win big or lose big. I don't see this one going to OT simply put. Nothing more needs to be said.. Let's see if this sticks for 5 in a row now?

    https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/colorad...rs-2019022327/

    $380.00 $100.00 Pending 2/23/19 5:35pm NHL Hockey 46 COL/NAS no overtime -380* vs COL/NAS goes to overtime
    Really easy tonight as it ended in a 5 goal margin. Too be expected, like clock work next.. https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/colorad...rs-2019022327/


    $380.00 $100.00 Win 2/23/19 5:35pm NHL Hockey 46 COL/NAS no overtime -380* vs COL/NAS goes to overtime
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  20. 02-24-19 10:43 AM #55
    JIBBBY
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    Pick #6 to make it 6 in a row now..

    Tough schedule for no OT picks today. I only see one game that I believe has the best chance of not going to OT.. Winnipeg Jets haven't sniffed OT on the road in a long time, they either win big or lose big. Zona is the same at home on the flip.. Zona did have 2 straight OT games in a row now but those were on the road, this one is at home now (3 days rest too). I can't remember the last time I saw 3 straight OT games by one team either in this fashion. I don't see it happening here.

    This pick isn't my best feel but it's all I could grab off today's schedule.. I still like it enough to bet it though but just barely.. I almost completely skipped today's card of NO OT bets. Let's see if this sticks anyways, I think it will? https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/winnipe...es-2019022424/

    $355.00 $100.00 Pending 2/24/19 9:05pm NHL Hockey 66 WPG/ARI no overtime -355* vs WPG/ARI goes to overtime
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-24-19 at 10:47 AM.
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  21. 02-24-19 10:56 AM #56
    eaglesfan371
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    I still think the line is efficient and if you are not somehow beating that line, you eventually will get wiped out. the one slight advantage is at that high of a line I would assume the big favorite is getting a very small portion of the vig. which would make it easier to try and beat these lines. do they move enough to overcome juice?
    The line is efficient and his sample size is extremely small. If I knew him in real life, I'd book this all day and give him higher limits than $100 too. It will not end well.
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  22. 02-24-19 10:58 AM #57
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by eaglesfan371 View Post
    The line is efficient and his sample size is extremely small. If I knew him in real life, I'd book this all day and give him higher limits than $100 too. It will not end well.
    ditto!
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  23. 02-24-19 10:59 AM #58
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Pick #6 to make it 6 in a row now..

    Tough schedule for no OT picks today. I only see one game that I believe has the best chance of not going to OT.. Winnipeg Jets haven't sniffed OT on the road in a long time, they either win big or lose big. Zona is the same at home on the flip.. Zona did have 2 straight OT games in a row now but those were on the road, this one is at home now (3 days rest too). I can't remember the last time I saw 3 straight OT games by one team either in this fashion. I don't see it happening here.

    This pick isn't my best feel but it's all I could grab off today's schedule.. I still like it enough to bet it though but just barely.. I almost completely skipped today's card of NO OT bets. Let's see if this sticks anyways, I think it will? https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/winnipe...es-2019022424/

    $355.00 $100.00 Pending 2/24/19 9:05pm NHL Hockey 66 WPG/ARI no overtime -355* <small>vs</small> WPG/ARI goes to overtime
    so you are 5-0 up $500 bucks right?
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  24. 02-24-19 11:11 AM #59
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    so you are 5-0 up $500 bucks right?
    Yup.. Nothing really to see here yet.

    I am playing with house money now in this thread and you can look at it that way with each bet I post up now. To be expected from my point view. Been doing this for a long time.
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  25. 02-24-19 11:34 AM #60
    danshan11
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    what is your overall record?
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  26. 02-24-19 12:18 PM #61
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    what is your overall record?
    Typically go 10-1 or 15-2 on average with these bets.. Been for doing it for a long time. Trying to prove that on this thread.

    There is a capping system strategy I use here, I'm not just flipping a coin with each game and hoping it cashes because of the -355 odds. There are teams and match ups that really trend not to go into OT. Makes it's just a little safer and easier to play at those odds.. Odds should be around -600 I believe with some of the games I play in all honesty.
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  27. 02-24-19 12:40 PM #62
    danshan11
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    if the lines should be -600 why do you think the books set them at only -350?
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  28. 02-24-19 12:56 PM #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    if the lines should be -600 why do you think the books set them at only -350?
    Is what it is.. I take advantage of it. Will continue to do so on this thread hopefully..

    Odds makers don't know everything and not many sports gamblers bet these types of NO OT bets let alone know how to cap them properly.
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  29. 02-24-19 01:23 PM #64
    eaglesfan371
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    if the lines should be -600 why do you think the books set them at only -350?
    He is unable to describes variables that meet his requirements. Thus you cannot backtest his theory. His hunches are working though
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  30. 02-24-19 01:48 PM #65
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by eaglesfan371 View Post
    He is unable to describes variables that meet his requirements. Thus you cannot backtest his theory. His hunches are working though
    I have been describing why I bet each game with each play post pending in this thread. That's good enough.

    Those games haven't even been close scoring games. Easy money. You can call it hunches and or luck guessing and I'll call it something else..

    Today's pick is a bit of a hunch though but the 5 before today were not hunches as I saw them all clearly landing easily which they did.
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  31. 02-24-19 11:22 PM #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Pick #6 to make it 6 in a row now..

    Tough schedule for no OT picks today. I only see one game that I believe has the best chance of not going to OT.. Winnipeg Jets haven't sniffed OT on the road in a long time, they either win big or lose big. Zona is the same at home on the flip.. Zona did have 2 straight OT games in a row now but those were on the road, this one is at home now (3 days rest too). I can't remember the last time I saw 3 straight OT games by one team either in this fashion. I don't see it happening here.

    This pick isn't my best feel but it's all I could grab off today's schedule.. I still like it enough to bet it though but just barely.. I almost completely skipped today's card of NO OT bets. Let's see if this sticks anyways, I think it will? https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/winnipe...es-2019022424/

    $355.00 $100.00 Pending 2/24/19 9:05pm NHL Hockey 66 WPG/ARI no overtime -355* vs WPG/ARI goes to overtime
    Had a bit of a rough day over all for gambling sports, hey but the one thing I can usually count on to stop the bleeding is my NHL NO OT bets.. 3 goal final margin.. Easy money.. Next..https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/winnipe...es-2019022424/


    $355.00 $100.00 Win 2/24/19 9:05pm NHL Hockey 66 WPG/ARI no overtime -355* vs WPG/ARI goes to overtime
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  32. 02-24-19 11:25 PM #67
    5918mike
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    Thanks for another winner Jib
    Points Awarded:

    JIBBBY gave 5918mike 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  33. 02-25-19 12:06 AM #68
    The Kraken
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    This thread really proves you’re as dumb as I thought

    Can’t wait for you to lose your ass so I can pop in and say told ya so, sucker
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  34. 02-25-19 12:26 AM #69
    cryptocap
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    Hockey is such a dog sport. You will vaporize your bankroll if you even think of running with -200s
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  35. 02-25-19 06:55 AM #70
    oilcountry99
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    Jibby
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