1. #316
    Ra77er
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    Good call on TB.

    I’ll look forward to your Mlb thread and continue following through NHL playoffs.

  2. #317
    BestBoyMike
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    Quote Originally Posted by hotcross View Post
    MLB is my favorite sport !!! Will have a thread in the Baseball subforum, like last year....I joined SBR later into the season in August last year and struggled big time with bets starting out due to some personal situations....but stuck with the thread and wiped out a -36 unit deficit to finish at -1 unit by the end of the World Series. Results will be better this year!
    MLB is great for betting. Looking forward to your insights!

  3. #318
    hotcross
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    Wednesday March 21

    UNDER 5.5 -125 BOS@STL // 2 units to win 1.60


    Tonight is a weird 4 game schedule. I have leans in all the games, but looking at it objectively, its difficult to say any of the games are strong plays.....and in the spirit of staying disciplined I don't want to spray the board with plays.

    However I do like this Under in St. Louis. Both teams have a ton of injuries. I don't see where the scoring will come from. Also just heard a gameday interview with Boston coach Bruce Cassidy in which he mentioned the game should be low-scoring, then he backtracked the statement a bit saying 'you never know'.....but that statement tells me he instructed his team to play a responsible defensive game tonight. Boston starts a brutal 4-game roadtrip against Western Conference teams tonight in St. Louis, then Dallas, Minnesota, and Winnipeg.

    If any interest, my other LEANS (not playing these myself) are:
    Under 5.5 ARIZ@BUF
    Montreal +220
    Anaheim -115

  4. #319
    keely85
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    took ducks -1.5 in your honor cross

  5. #320
    hotcross
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    Quote Originally Posted by hotcross View Post
    UNDER 5.5 -125 BOS@STL // 2 units to win 1.60
    I just want to make some tracking notes about this game, because my record on Totals is generally not good (I've purposely avoided Totals unless feel very strongly about it - and then I still consider risking anywhere from 1 to 5 units on it).

    Boston ends the first period with 1-0 lead on a Power Play goal that came about halfway thru the period. It was a very fluke goal, as the Blues defense went to ice the puck and it actually hit a referee, bounced straight to the Bruins and Ryan Donato had an easy chance to put it past the unsuspecting goalie.

    Shot count on goal: Bruins 9, St. Louis 5

  6. #321
    hotcross
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    1-0 score unchanged after 2 periods in St. Louis

    Game Total Shot count on goal: Bruins 17, St. Louis 14

  7. #322
    wkupike2000
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    Thanks for the in-game analysis. Very nice.

  8. #323
    hotcross
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    game headed to Overtime tied 1-1...so Under is locked now

    St. Louis got a 5-on-5 goal about halfway thru 3rd period to tie.

    Game Total Shot count on goal: Bruins 22, St. Louis 19...this is a very low shot total

    St. Louis wins 30-second into Overtime
    *third OT game in a row for St. Louis (won all 3)

  9. #324
    hotcross
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    March 20&21 results:

    +1.00 TAMPA -0.5 regulation win ----> score 4-3 home win in reg. vs TOR
    -1.05 UNDER 5.5 -105 NJ@SJ ----> score 6-2 SJ home win vs NJ
    +1.60 UNDER 5.5 -125 BOS@STL ----> score 2-1 STL home Overtime win vs BOS

    ------------------
    March 20&21 = +1.55 units (W/L = 2-1)

    OVERALL THREAD: +65.48 units (W/L = 124-121-8 overall = .506 pct)

    LAST 25 PICKS:
    +8.63 units (W/L = 12-12-1 Last 25 picks = .500 pct)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by hotcross; 03-21-18 at 10:07 PM. Reason: UNDER 5.5 -125 was March 21 pick

  10. #325
    hotcross
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    Thursday March 22

    gonna let fly a couple "iffy" picks tonight each for a unit...no time for write-ups

    DETROIT +150 ML // 1 unit to win 1.50

    COLORADO -110 first period only moneyline // 1.10 units to win 1
    *push if tie score end first period

    OVERTIME +300 FLA@CBJ // 1 unit to win 3

  11. #326
    wkupike2000
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    Does that mean we should avoid tailing these? ��

  12. #327
    hotcross
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    I like them all but deviation from my "high confidence only" strategy

  13. #328
    hotcross
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    Thursday March 22 - adding ::

    UNDER 6 -125 VGS@SJ // 2 units to win 1.60

    this is basically a follow-thru Under of the Sharks, which lost last time. They have played 5 games in a row Over the total, but their strength is actually team defense. Vegas last 2 games have gone Under.

  14. #329
    keely85
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    was on Washington

    thinking Sharks win by a bit here. Fluery out

  15. #330
    hotcross
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    Quote Originally Posted by keely85 View Post
    thinking Sharks win by a bit here. Fluery out
    I'm always aware of which goalies are starting the games, unless it gets switched at the last minute....or for the handful of teams that never announce starting lineups until right before the game (LA Kings for example). Not trying to sound arrogant, just wanna put that out there I do track the goalies closely.

    In this case Malcolm Subban starting for Vegas in place of Fleury doesn't bother me at all. He has become a good goalie this year....Vegas chose him even tho he struggled before because one of the coaches worked with him previously with Boston. Malcolm Subban's stats coming into tonight's game = 2.55 GAA, .914 Save Pct, No shutouts but 11 wins - 3 Losses - 1 OT Loss....plus his older brother is PK Subban so I imagine as a youngster they got some serious practice with each other.

  16. #331
    hotcross
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    March 22 results:

    -1.00 DETROIT +150 ML ----> score 1-0 WSH road win at DET
    -1.10 COLORADO first period ML ----> score 3-1 LAK lead after 1P (LAK 7-1 road win at COL)
    -1.00 OVERTIME FLA@CBJ ----> score 4-0 CBJ home win vs FLA
    +1.60 UNDER 6 -125 VGS@SJ ----> score 2-1 SJ home Overtime win vs VGS
    ------------------
    March 22 = -1.50 units (W/L = 1-3)

    OVERALL THREAD:
    +63.98 units (W/L = 125-124-8 overall = .502 pct)

    LAST 25 PICKS
    :
    +6.18 units (W/L = 11-13-1 Last 25 picks = .458 pct)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    tonight was an illustration on the importance to remain disciplined with only finalizing my best picks....not saying I lost on purpose.....in fact what happened was last night I posted one final pick (won) and 3 Leans (2-1), so it enticed me to play some leans tonight when I really didn't have any strong pick for the day. Sometimes I personally just don't feel into it as much as I need to be, or I'm tired....its not an excuse but it does affect me.....and I know this fact already.

    A few comments about tonight's picks:

    Detroit is a bad team this year, but they always play Washington tight. Detroit had an early goal disallowed after review for 'goalie interference' which is an issue this year and the league is actively working to fix. It didn't appear to be interference to my eyes and the goal should have stood. But it doesn't matter about the outcome, you're not expecting to win if the team can't score more than one goal. Game played closely as predicted, and I liked the +150 price (actually line moved higher for Detroit before puck drop), although it wasn't a strong pick...."value" is something I don't care about....I want the win.

    Colorado is kinda going "Jeckyl and Hyde" here as the season comes to an end and trying to make the playoffs. When they played Nashville at home on Friday March 16 and lost 4-2, the game didn't seem as close as the score would indicate. They didn't have anything going on except for their top line with MacKinnon. I see them struggling against the really good teams, when it matters most. Now, they are much improved since last year, and nobody predicted that, but it seems to all hang on the efforts of MacKinnon. Hockey is the most "team sport" there is.

    Overtime picks - in general I come to realize they just aren't +EV. I believe this now puts me up +1 unit for the season on all my Overtime picks. I think it could be focused on and perhaps better results, but on the other hand I do see it as a sucker prop bet.

    Under pick on San Jose - this was the only pick with real strength to it, and only because I decided to chase a Sharks under game when picking it last time and it lost.

  17. #332
    keely85
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    How you think Pens play tonight? NJ in a fight for the 8th spot, I'm leaning towards the over in the game maybe. Everything else is a bit iffy to me. Laine being out might sway me to take the Ducks too.

  18. #333
    hotcross
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    keely, I just heard Laine participated in today's morning practice and has declared himself ready to play, although no word yet on the Jets putting him back in tonight. Both teams have been red hot, Anaheim won 4 in a row but mostly against weak teams. But 7-3 in their last 10. Second game of road trip tonight.

    As for Penguins, Over 7-3 in last 10. NJ 3-1 went Over in the last 4...was expecting them to go Under last game but they lost 6-2. Not sure how it will go tonight.

    5 game card looks rough. St. Louis heavy home favorite against Vancouver on back-to-back, but can we trust the Blues?

  19. #334
    keely85
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    As a Blackhawks fan I don't know if Vancouver should be praised that highly for that big win yesterday lol, might just enjoy come hoops tonight.

  20. #335
    hotcross
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    Friday March 23

    OVER 5.5 +102 ANA@WPG // 1 unit to win 1.02

    UNDER 5.5 -107 BOS@DAL // 1.07 units to win 1

  21. #336
    hotcross
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    Sorry for the last-minute pick on the Winnipeg game. I believe Ducks will be desperate and if there are a couple goals scored by each team, Anaheim will force the issue and/or will have an empty net goal by somebody.

    As for the game in Dallas it starts at 8:30 Eastern Time. This one should go Under as did the Bruins previous game when they lost to St.Louis 2-1 in overtime. Again the Bruins are playing with several regulars injured, but Tukka Rask is in net and with the players they have tonight in the lineup, they're going to practice again their playoff style defensive game against a Dallas team which must win the game.

  22. #337
    keely85
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    Hope the Devils win this by 6 goals. Let's go!

    Forgot I took the over in the ducks game too, GL, looking good so far

  23. #338
    hotcross
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    Ducks look like they didn't come to play tonight, which surprises me. Amazing the score they're only down 2-1 still, but a lot less shots for them than the Jets.

  24. #339
    hotcross
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    March 23 results:

    -1.00 OVER 5.5 +102 ANA@WPG ----> score 3-2 WPG home Overtime win
    +1.00 UNDER 5.5 -107 BOS@DAL ----> score 3-2 BOS road win (David Pastrnak scores with 12-second left)
    ------------------
    March 23 = +0 units (W/L = 1-1)

    OVERALL THREAD:
    +63.98 units (W/L = 126-125-8 overall = .502 pct)

    LAST 25 PICKS
    :
    +0.18 units (W/L = 10-14-1 Last 25 picks = .416 pct)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Anaheim only had 18 shots vs. 42 for Winnipeg, but somehow forced Overtime to get the one point in the playoff race.

    Weird thing is, they've had similar very low shot totals a few times in recent weeks, actually winning some of the games. In fact, Ducks had only 16 shots in the previous game at Calgary on Wednesday, but still won 4-0, due to some horrendous goalkeeping by Mike Smith (who I believe still has a groin injury and should have never been asked to come back to duty this season).

    What bothers me about this, IF they make the playoffs, the caliber of opposing goalies will be much better.
    The other games which Anaheim had low shots:

    22 shots vs 23, Home loss vs St.Louis 4-2 on Monday March 12
    18 shots vs 33, Home win vs Washington 4-0 on Tuesday March 6
    17 shots vs 41, Home win vs Dallas 2-0 on Wed.Feb.21
    20 shots vs 33, Road win vs Vegas 2-0 on Monday Feb.19

    Less games like this the more I look back, but there are some more, and still some were wins. Pretty good winning record being outshot like that, but I really don't think its a winning formula.

  25. #340
    hotcross
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    Saturday March 24

    OTTAWA SENATORS +117 ML
    5 units to win 5.85

    Wrong team favored
    Public Consensus shaded on the opponent, they don't understand the context of tonight's game.

  26. #341
    hotcross
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    lost Saturday, looking to get back on track today

    Monday March 26

    TORONTO -1.5 -115 puckline // 1.15 units to win 1

    SAN JOSE -150 ML // 4.50 units to win 3

    Toronto pick at home vs Buffalo really doesn't need explainng.

    San Jose at Chicago, thr Sharks have won 7 in a row, spending most of March at home. This is the first game of a road trip and is the "easiest" opponent to keep their streak going against. Chicago won their last game at the NY Islanders, but now have traveled themselves to get back home for tonight's game. They beat the Sharks last time they played in Chicago, but that had to do with the Sharks having played more games in a week that time. Now both teams about the same games played leading up to this, and the Sharks have played one less game during the month of March.

    I am still looking if there are any other picks worth adding tonight.

  27. #342
    hotcross
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    Monday March 26 - adding ::

    LOS ANGELES -0.5 -156 regulation win // 6.24 units to win 4

    Kings host the hapless Calgary Flames tonight who not only have played terrible, but now have a couple regular players out for the year with injuries. Its to the point that this team is not able to send an NHL caliber team out on the ice tonight. This is heavy juice, but I'd rather go this way on a larger units risked, than the -1.5 puckline which currently can be had at +110 odds if you prefer.

  28. #343
    hotcross
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    March 24&26 results:

    -5.00 OTTAWA +117 ML ----> score 5-2 home loss vs CAR
    -1.15 TORONTO -1.5 puckline ----> score 3-2 home loss vs BUF (snaps club record 13 home game win streak)
    +3.00 SAN JOSE -150 ML ----> score 4-3 road Shootout win at CHI
    +4.00 LOS ANGELES -0.5 -156 regulation win ----> score 3-0 home win vs CGY

    ------------------
    March 24&26 = +0.85 units (W/L = 2-2)

    OVERALL THREAD:
    +64.83 units (W/L = 128-127-8 overall = .502 pct)

    LAST 25 PICKS
    :
    +5.26 units (W/L = 11-13-1 Last 25 picks = .458 pct)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    what a way for Toronto to lose their home-game Team record win streak....against Buffalo. I only risked one unit on that pick because you have to be careful with that Buffalo team playing Toronto, no matter what the standings.

    The 2 high juiced picks tonight normally isn't my style, but nailed 'em both and figured they were pretty much locks.

    I don't care if anyone likes or disagrees the way I vary my unit size depending on the strength of the pick. That's my philosophy. Sometimes they win/lose, but the idea is that the higher unit risks should win at a higher percentage and results in net profits.

  29. #344
    BestBoyMike
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    Bet the way that works for you!

    OVERALL THREAD: +64.83 units

    Seems to be working!

  30. #345
    keely85
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    Couple teams that need wins tonight. Eying NJ Pitt Ana, and maybe Columbus, but i think they'll limp into the playoffs from this point.

  31. #346
    hotcross
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    well in the Western Conference, so far 3 teams have officially now clinched playoff spots = Nashville, Winnipeg, Vegas

    there are 8 total spots per Conference, so the remaining 5 available spots are being contested by 6 teams in the West...all need wins. Its gonna come down to the last weekend. I'm looking at either St. Louis or Colorado as being the team that misses out.

    Eastern Conf, just 2 teams have already officially clinched spots (Tampa and Boston), but Toronto is definitely good for third place in their division, so they're in. I like Philly to make it in, they need to win tonight to help firm that up. Pittsburgh will get it done. Its also tight in the East, looks like its between Florida and New Jersey to miss...and that's a tough call. Interesting is Florida is the team with the most remaining games to be played including a home game against Boston on the final Sunday April 8....that game is the only game to be played that day, which is a makeup game from earlier in the season which was postponed due to bad weather. In that game, Florida will likely need the win to get in, while Boston might be actually fighting for first place seeding if they get within a point of Tampa by that time (Tampa holds the tiebreaker over Boston if I'm not mistaken, in case those two finish with the same point total in the standings).

  32. #347
    hotcross
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    Tuesday March 27 - pick #1

    I like a handful of games tonight...checking some things as lineups are released.

    WINNIPEG -0.5 +120 regulation win // 3 units to win 3.60

    I want to go bigger on this pick, but the opponent is Boston after all. Winnipeg is riding their season-high 5-game win streak, all at home, and the last 3 decided in Overtime/ or Shootout. Notably in the last game they hung with division leader Nashville for a 5-4 Shootout win two nights ago on Sunday.

    Boston comes in on the last game of their tough road-trip facing Western Conference opponents, winning the past two games, 3-2 dramatic last minute win in Dallas on Friday, followed by a 2-1 Overtime win in Minnesota on Sunday. God on them. But they barely squeezed out both those wins. Come into face a red-hot Winnipeg team as the last game of the road trip...then they'll be going home to host Tampa on Thursday. So of course the want to win, we've seen their competitiveness. But I think they'll want the win more against Tampa.

    Because both these teams' last games went to Overtime, plus 3-in-a-row extra time for Winnipeg, I'm taking the home team to win in regulation here.

  33. #348
    hotcross
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    Tuesday March 27 - adding ::

    PITTSBURGH -1.5 +110 puckline // 1 units to win 1.10

    Pittsburgh at Detroit. No way Penguins are losing this game because out of their remaining games, this is 1 of 3 opponents they are far superior to. Pittsburgh won their last game in Overtime, and if you look back at the season history, every time in the next game they either won by more than just one goal, or they lost outright. So you can take them at -245 moneyline on what should be a sure win, but taking the puckline will not make a difference if you believe history repeats itself. However I'm just gonna risk one unit on this.

  34. #349
    hotcross
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    Quote Originally Posted by hotcross View Post
    ... Interesting is Florida is the team with the most remaining games to be played including a home game against Boston on the final Sunday April 8....that game is the only game to be played that day, which is a makeup game from earlier in the season which was postponed due to bad weather. In that game, Florida will likely need the win to get in, while Boston might be actually fighting for first place seeding if they get within a point of Tampa by that time (Tampa holds the tiebreaker over Boston if I'm not mistaken, in case those two finish with the same point total in the standings).
    I mis-spoke just about the location of the last game of the regular season. Boston will be at home vs Florida.

  35. #350
    hotcross
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    March 27 results:

    -3.00 WINNIPEG -0.5 +120 regulation----> score 5-4 home Shootout win vs BOS
    -1.00 PITTSBURGH -1.5 +110 puckline ----> score 5-2 road loss at DET

    ------------------
    March 27 = -4.00 units (W/L = 0-2)

    OVERALL THREAD:
    +60.83 units (W/L = 128-129-8 overall = .498 pct)

    LAST 25 PICKS
    :
    +0.26 units (W/L = 10-14-1 Last 25 picks = .416 pct)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Winnipeg gave almost completely that game away after a 3-1 lead. Took all of the penalties, except one late by Boston - which didn't convert on the Power Play. I also cannot believe how this roster Boston keeps putting on the ice because of injuries is winning or at least giving teams trouble. Backup goalie for Boston also. I'm frustrated by this loss - posted the dam pick in Players Talk also - which I know doesn't mean any curse....but for me its when I'm highly confident on a pick and don't want to be throwing a loser out there.

    Pittsburgh game was another head shaker. They are weak on the road sometimes (15-19-4 road record coming into the game), but they literally were not shooting the puck until the end of the game down 4-1 and so they finish with a shot total of 24 but that was baloney....they only had 13 shots total with about 10-minutes remaining in the game....in other words, mailed it in vs Detroit in this game.

    I tried to be very selective tonight instead of picking about 5 games tonight. I won't say how those results would have gone because all the games on the schedule played pretty tight tonight actually. Winnipeg pick would have been a win if I had chosen to just play the standard moneyline. Might take a break to clear my head after this, just frustrated by this night.

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