1. #281
    BestBoyMike
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    Hotcross if you have time. Can you explain your logic for choosing to bet overtime in the Washington game. I see that you hit it and many others. I have always had trouble deciding when to throw a bet to the overtime. One of my weaker capping skills I’m afraid. Anyway thought I’d ask to see if you could through some knowledge my way. Thanks

  2. #282
    hotcross
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    Answer about the Overtime prop = its a sucker bet, doesn't pay the true odds if you look at the League average percentage of games that go to OT. But I play it occasionally because it pays approx +300. Better-off not playing it.

    You can look at team schedule of their finished games and notice Overtime games often repeat, come in bunches.

    Some teams have more Overtime games because of their style of play, and/or because they cannot finish games strong (look at Buffalo for example).

    I could continue with more reasoning / ways to look at it. Bottom line its -minus profitability on my season. Maybe if I made it more of a focus specialty, might crack the code.

    OVERTIME PROP
    : -2.15 units (W/L = 4-12 overall = .250 pct)
    *2 units risked twice (both lost), all other 14 times risked 1 unit...current thru Monday March 12

  3. #283
    BestBoyMike
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    Thanks for the honest answer. I tried to add in the overtime bets a few years back but didn’t have any luck with them. I have stayed away since because I could never figure out a logical time or reason any game should go into overtime. It’s hard to look at that +300 and not try and find a reason to take the shot. However I guess I’ll just keep staying away from them. Realy appreciate your posts. Keep killing it.

  4. #284
    hotcross
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    Tuesday March 13

    not really feeling it today and been too busy.....just gonna play a 2-teamer....PROBABLY SHOULDN'T TAIL THIS

    PARLAY 2-TEAMS: CAROLINA +114 & DALLAS -180
    risk 1 unit to win 2.32

  5. #285
    hotcross
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    both legs of the parlay lost, although Carolina blew a 4-1 lead at home with about 10 minutes left in the game, to end up losing 6-4 to Boston, who opened as a -135 favorite which seemed light.

    4 dogs out of 7 games won Tuesday night. Arizona beat Los Angeles -117 opener. 3 more big underdogs won Tuesday night as well (Ottawa, Montreal, Colorado). Don't think anyone woulda given Ottawa a chance in Tampa who opened as a -310 favorite.

  6. #286
    hotcross
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    Wednesday March 14

    only 5 games on schedule tonight.... biggest favorite is Anaheim, with good reason.... fighting to make the playoffs, healthy roster back in force, while the opponent tonight is not.

    ANAHEIM -0.5 -155 regulation win // 3.10 units to win 2

  7. #287
    hotcross
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    March 13&14 results:

    -1.00 PARLAY 2-TEAMS:
    ......CAROLINA ML ----> 6-4 home loss vs BOS ((blew 4-1 lead with 10-minutes remaining))

    ......DALLAS ML ----> 4-2 road loss at MTL
    +2.00 ANAHEIM -0.5 -155 regulation win ----> score 3-0 home win vs VANC

    ------------------
    March 13&14 = +1.00 units (W/L = 1-1)

    OVERALL THREAD: +59.80 units (W/L = 115-111-7 overall = .508 pct)

    LAST 25 PICKS:
    +33.53 units (W/L = 15-10 Last 25 picks = .600 pct)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  8. #288
    hotcross
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    Thursday March 15

    FLORIDA -101 ML // 2.02 units to win 2

    PITTSBURGH -1 -103 // 2.06 units to win 2

    Florida a tough test tonight against Boston, but the silver lining is Boston banged up and have a handful of call-up players in the lineup. Appears both teams will start backup goalies.

  9. #289
    hotcross
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    ^^^also Florida has been on an extended home stretch, while Boston is 3rd game of 4 on the road.

    Pittsburgh -1 to reduce the high favorite juice. It pushes if they only win by 1. They are back-to-back in Montreal after blowing last night's game at NY Rangers. Don't see Penguins losing both games in a row to bad teams.

    I see a couple more potential picks tonight, still working to decide on those.

  10. #290
    Jbidness
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    Dam I read this earlier totally forgot to tail the Florida. My head all on NCAA bball today.

  11. #291
    hotcross
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    March 15 results:

    +2.00 FLORIDA ML ----> score 3-0 home win vs BOS
    +2.00 PITTSBURGH -1 ----> score 5-3 road win at MTL

    ------------------
    March 15 = +4.00 units (W/L = 2-0)

    OVERALL THREAD: +63.80 units (W/L = 117-111-7 overall = .513 pct)

    LAST 25 PICKS:
    +36.60 units (W/L = 16-9 Last 25 picks = .640 pct)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Regular Season has less than one month remaining (weekend of April 7-8 concludes). So teams have anywhere from 10-14 games remaining.

    My season profitability really took hold one month ago on Monday Feb.19, was pretty much sitting at zero units +/- although since the beginning I was mostly up, never down more than 3-4 units at any point. So its been a really good 1-month stretch and certainly want to hold on to the gains as Hockey will move into playoff season and my focus will begin to shift to the start of the Baseball regular season.

    By tracking my results in such a detailed manner, I've learned some things about types of bets that are not profitable, and some more things too. Bottom line all of my wagering is a constant challenge of following-thru what is right.

  12. #292
    hotcross
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    Friday March 16

    COLORADO +125 ML includes overtime // 1 unit to win 1.25

    COLORADO +320 -1.5 alternate puckline // 1 unit to win 3.20

    COLORADO +190 -0.5 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1.90

    Going back to the well on Colorado Avalanche as they host the Nashville Predators tonight in Denver.

    Nashville beat Colorado three times so far this year (4-1 score Oct.17, and 5-2 score Nov.18, both games in Nashville, then 3-2 score on March 4 in Denver.

    Tonight is the last regular season meeting of these divisional foes. Both teams are on back-to-back having played last night, which both teams won, but Nashville barely got by Arizona, while Colorado absolutely thumped the Blues in St. Louis where they struggled winning for multiple years.

    Both teams have been red hot recently. This game means much more to Colorado as they fight for a playoff spot, and avoid being swept on the season by the division leader.

  13. #293
    hotcross
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    Friday March 16 - adding ::

    CALGARY -123 regulation only moneyline // 1.23 units to win 1
    *push if game goes to Overtime

    Calgary wrapping up 3-game homestand where they have a bad home record on the season. But fighting to make the playoffs and won the previous game.

    San Jose comes in banged-up on their second game of 3 on the road.

  14. #294
    hotcross
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    0-4 yesterday among the 2 games. Colorado was simply outmanned against Nashville.

    Saturday March 17

    COLUMBUS -0.5 -135 regulation win // 1.35 units to win 1

    This one should win easy but I'm not going to be stupid and lay multiple units with the juice. Columbus is at home and have won 6 in a row. Ottawa is on back-to-back after winning in Overtime last night.

  15. #295
    hotcross
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    Saturday March 17 - adding ::

    ST. LOUIS -0.5 -115 regulation win // 3.45 units to win 3

    ST. LOUIS -1.5 +145 puckline // 1 units to win 1.45

    This game has the home team St. Louis as a -210 favorite vs. the NY Rangers. Blues have played bad over the past two months with just a couple of exceptions and have difficulty scoring. One exception is the 7-2 road win they put up against the LA Kings a week ago Saturday.

    NY Rangers have played surprisingly better. They have been giving rookie goalie Alexandar Georgiev a look in place of King Henrik Lundqvist, as well as inexperienced position players. But the Blues feel their playoff hopes slipping away and should be highly motivated and angry after getting their azz kicked 4-1 at home by Colorado on Thursday. I believe they will take out some frustration on the Rangers tonight.

  16. #296
    hotcross
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    Sunday March 18

    DALLAS +137 ML // 3 units to win 4.11

    OVERTIME +300 NJ@ANA // 1 unit to win 3

  17. #297
    hotcross
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    March 16,17,18 results:

    Friday March 16
    -1.00 COLORADO +125 ML ----> score 4-2 home loss vs NSH
    -1.00 COLORADO +320 -1.5 alternate puckline
    -1.00 COLORADO +190 -0.5 regulation win

    -1.23 CALGARY regulation only ML ----> 7-4 home loss vs SJ

    ------------------
    Saturday March 17
    +1.00 COLUMBUS -0.5 regulation ----> score 2-1 home regulation win vs OTT
    -3.45 ST. LOUIS -0.5 regulation ---> score 4-3 home Overtime win vs NYR
    -1.00 ST. LOUIS -1.5 puckline

    ------------------
    Sunday March 18
    -3.00 DALLAS ML ----> score 4-2 road loss at WPG
    -1.00 OVERTIME NJ@ANA ----> score 4-2 ANA home win
    ------------------
    March 16,17,18 = -11.68 units (W/L = 1-8)

    OVERALL THREAD:
    +52.12 units (W/L = 118-119-7 overall = .497 pct)

    LAST 25 PICKS:
    +13.07 units (W/L = 11-14 Last 25 picks = .440 pct)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Bad luck in a couple of the games. Ben Bishop injured himself making a save in the first period of Sunday's game for Dallas. The team showed up to compete, but their probability of winning declined when that happened. Also the Saturday game with St. Louis winning in Overtime - well the opponent had 2 out of 3 goals that were completely flukes....its part of the game, just luck not on my side.
    Last edited by hotcross; 03-19-18 at 06:38 PM. Reason: corrected Overall win pct = .497

  18. #298
    hotcross
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    Monday March 19

    FLORIDA -0.5 +108 regulation win // 3 units to win 3.24

    FLORIDA -160 regulation only moneyline // 3.20 units to win 2
    *push if game goes to Overtime


    CALGARY -116 first period only moneyline // 2.32 units to win 2

    CALGARY -123 ML // 1.23 units to win 1



    Florida dropped 2 of the last 3 games, leaving them on the outside of the playoff race looking in. Tonight is the first night of a tough road schedule for them thru end-March, with 7 of 8 games on the road. The opportunities to win games is getting tight. Montreal lost 7 of their past 8 games and their roster is depleted to the point of not having an NHL caliber team on the ice. Florida should win easily.

    In the late game, Calgary goes into Arizona on a back-to-back after getting trounced in Vegas (score 4-0) on Sunday. Calgary has lost 3 of the last 4 games, and lost 7 of the last 10. Their playoff hopes are just about snuffed. They practically gave-up early in yesterday's game at Vegas after falling behind, so there's an aspect they could have saved some energy for tonight's game. Arizona has gone 5-5 in their past 10 games, but after playing much better hockey during February and March, they are still dead-last place in the entire NHL with 57 points in the standings. Facing a desperate Calgary team who should be seeking to take early momentum in tonight's game (hence the first period moneyline pick), who are backstopped by goalie Mike Smith who spent 6 years in net with the Arizona franchise, I like Calgary to have the motivation to snap their losing ways on the road tonight.
    Points Awarded:

    Ra77er gave hotcross 15 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  19. #299
    hotcross
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    Monday March 19 - adding ::

    UNDER 6 -120 NSH@BUF // 2.40 units to win 2

    goalie matchup Rinne at Ullmark, who has only started one other game on the year for Buffalo and played very well. I'd think Buffalo's offense will be stifled by Nashville's defense anyway, plus we have Rinne confirmed in net for the Predators.

  20. #300
    hotcross
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    Monday March 19 - adding ::

    OVERTIME +290 LAK@MINN // 2 units to win 5.80

    trying one last time to hit a 2-unit risk on the Overtime prop. Minnesota is due for OT game. They lost to the Kings earlier this year by a 5-2 score in Los Angeles on Dec.5 Minnesota plays well at home and the Kings are about even record on the road/ or home. Kings lost 2 of their last 3, including an embarrassing 3-0 loss at home on Saturday vs New Jersey. So I look for them to play responsible tonight. Minnesota won their past two games, both on the road at Vegas then Arizona. Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot and need points in the standings. Since they are not in the same division of the Western Conference, it adds to the likelihood of an Overtime match.

    Regardless, still a stupid prop bet but cannot resist!

  21. #301
    keely85
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    Fla looking good now, on the Wild so i'll hope they win in OT

  22. #302
    hotcross
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    thanks bro, sounds like a plan to me

  23. #303
    keely85
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    Wow great call now pray for me in OT

  24. #304
    hotcross
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    LA Kings pretty good at 6-on-5 to tie the end of the game.

    Sorry keely the Wild couldn't pull it off in Overtime. But welcome back to the site. Don't be a stranger.

  25. #305
    keely85
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    3/4 oh well hopefully the flames can end the night for us
    Thanks. Had to take a break but back for the playoffs.
    Great work tonight

  26. #306
    hotcross
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    March 19 results:

    +3.24 FLORIDA -0.5 regulation win ----> score 2-0 road win at MTL
    +2.00 FLORIDA regulation ML

    +0 push CALGARY first period only ML ----> score 0-0 end first period
    -1.23 CALGARY ML ----> score 5-2 road loss at ARIZ
    +2.00 UNDER 6 -120 NSH@BUF ----> score 4-0 NSH road win at BUF
    +5.80 OVERTIME LAK@MINN ----> score 4-3 LAK overtime road win at MINN

    ------------------
    March 19 = +11.81 units (W/L = 4-1-1)

    OVERALL THREAD: +63.93 units (W/L = 122-120-8 overall = .504 pct)

    LAST 25 PICKS:
    +25.88 units (W/L = 13-11-1 Last 25 picks = .541 pct)
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Reversed the past 3-days of losses in one night! Wouldn't describe tonight having good luck, but didn't have bad luck working against me. Maybe the Overtime pick was a bit lucky, the game was tied 2-2 then Minnesota scored with 2-minutes remaining and looked like that would stand, until the LA Kings pulled the goalie and once again forced Overtime with the extra attacker on ice.

    Calgary game - had a feeling the line looked too thin and of course they have been so ineffective lately. I really liked the Over 5.5 for this game but couldn't pull the trigger....actually it was 2x empty net goals at the finish by Arizona to produce the 5-2 final score. Still tho the weakness with Calgary is they had 44 shots vs. 30 for Arizona but the Flames never understand they must play DEFENSE to make the playoffs, let alone win playoff games if they ever get there. Maybe next year....because they're officially out now.

    One last comment for anyone following the thread, I'm going to tighten-up from here on out, so less volume. Rest assured I aim to win every pick. Will be especially confident with any picks from now until one team hoists the Stanley Cup.

  27. #307
    BestBoyMike
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    I’ve been following this thread for a while now. Why less plays? If it has been working why change. Or are you tightening up because of the end of the season?

  28. #308
    hotcross
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    yes because the end of the season. And into the playoffs the style of gameplay usually changes....teams take less chances and since the best teams remain it gets more difficult to envision clear-cut winners.

    One thing I weigh heavily in my methods is try to predict motivation / desire. It doesn't always work because its far from the only factor in the outcome of games. Plus often I'm wrong about it.

    Looking at my overall record being about .500 win percentage, and more time spent below the .500 mark, playing a lot of volume can be dangerous with a poor string of picks - which showed up this past weekend Friday-Sunday. That is a red-flag telling me to slow down also. I believe in playing volume picks when running hot. I went on a hot run for about a month....not about to give that back with the season winding down.

    I'm still in love with the sport and will be following closely. I just want to be really sure with any risked units, which should always be the case (instead of slinging units around on "hope").

    Thanks for the question - I like the discussion and the opportunity to think thru my reasoning even more.

  29. #309
    BestBoyMike
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    One thing I weigh heavily in my methods is try to predict motivation / desire. It doesn't always work because its far from the only factor in the outcome of games. Plus often I'm wrong about it.

    I’m more of a straight up numbers guy. Always crunching numbers. I assume the motivation and desire to win is always there, because they are professionals. But as we all know they are human and people get tired, lazy or unmotivated sometimes. I probably need to take this into account more. that’s why I was drawn to your thread. I may cap a game and have an idea what I think will happen then I come check to see if you have anything to say about it here. If so I up my bets figuring my numbers say one thing and then you say the same thing based on other factors I don’t look at as much. Been working pretty good as of late. Thanks again for your time and your write up here.

  30. #310
    hotcross
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    Quote Originally Posted by BestBoyMike View Post
    I’m more of a straight up numbers guy. Always crunching numbers....I may cap a game and have an idea what I think will happen then I come check to see if you have anything to say about it here. If so I up my bets....
    good to hear. Yeah see, you are taking advantage of "both worlds" = the math + the feel.

    I'm a feel capper with only a slight bent on the numbers. I've often wanted to join forces with someone / multiple guys who are strong with stats and numbers. Then, just as you said, if the numbers generate a pick, and the "feel" also generates the same pick, pound that pick.

    I'm not faulting you, nor am I upset. I'm putting my picks up on this site to improve my capping, and because it makes me more responsible perhaps than keeping it all bottled up in my own head. Its great you are able to benefit. Maybe one day I will also find partners to join forces with....maybe or maybe not from this site. Meantime will keep doing my thing.

  31. #311
    hotcross
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    Tuesday March 20

    TAMPA -0.5 +100 regulation win // 1 unit to win 1

  32. #312
    hotcross
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    Tuesday March 20 - adding ::

    UNDER 5.5 -105 NJ@SJ // 1.05 units to win 1

    New Jersey's game is more geared towards Unders. Cory Schneider will be the starting goalie for only the fourth time since late-January when he was injured. He hasn't won any of the previous 3 games, however each time NJ lost by a score of 3-2.

    Coming into tonight's game, the San Jose penalty kill ranks 3rd best overall in the NHL.
    NJ penalty kill ranks 8th best in the NHL.

    Sharks last 4 in a row have gone Over, as well as 7 of their last 9 games.
    NJ had 2 of the last 3 go Over.
    These teams played once early in the season on Oct.20 which saw San Jose win 3-0 score in New Jersey.

  33. #313
    BestBoyMike
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    Quote Originally Posted by hotcross View Post
    good to hear. Yeah see, you are taking advantage of "both worlds" = the math + the feel.

    I'm a feel capper with only a slight bent on the numbers. I've often wanted to join forces with someone / multiple guys who are strong with stats and numbers. Then, just as you said, if the numbers generate a pick, and the "feel" also generates the same pick, pound that pick.

    I'm not faulting you, nor am I upset. I'm putting my picks up on this site to improve my capping, and because it makes me more responsible perhaps than keeping it all bottled up in my own head. Its great you are able to benefit. Maybe one day I will also find partners to join forces with....maybe or maybe not from this site. Meantime will keep doing my thing.
    Hope I did'nt insult you. I have tried betting for a living twice in my life. First time i was young and bet to big to soon. Totally Blew UP! Second time i made a go of it for over a year and a half, but the stress of having to bet to pay my bills was no fun. I found that the pressure changed how i looked for bets and my win pecentages went down. Now I just bet to make some side money and for the fun of seeing how well i can do each year. Without the pressure I do fine. Im sure there are many guys on this site that would team up with you, if they thought it would help their bottom line. Until then, keep doing your thing and they will notice. I did (not that i count for anything on here)!

  34. #314
    Ra77er
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    Do you follow MLB as well hottie?

  35. #315
    hotcross
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    MLB is my favorite sport !!! Will have a thread in the Baseball subforum, like last year....I joined SBR later into the season in August last year and struggled big time with bets starting out due to some personal situations....but stuck with the thread and wiped out a -36 unit deficit to finish at -1 unit by the end of the World Series. Results will be better this year!

    Quote Originally Posted by BestBoyMike View Post
    Hope I did'nt insult you...
    Not at all. I am also a man with a dream.

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