Reg system bets, 1 unit each:
1. Kings
BigOver system bets, 1 unit each:
1. Jets-Islanders O7,5 goals
2. Toronto-TB O6,5 (0,5 units) and O7,5 (0,5 units)
Shutout+ system bets, 0,1 unit each score:
1. Buffalo-LA 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, 0-6, 1-5, 2-5, 1-6, 2-6
No Under bets. No Early goal bets.
Conclusion: We are betting 4 units tonight, looks like we are starting to trust our doings again. There were days a week back when we were scared to even play 0,5 units, systems just felt so weak. Possible profit is ca 14 units if everything hits (meaning just one Shutout+ bet, but with the highest odds, that would be 0-6. With scores like 0-1, 1-6 and 2-6 a max profit would be ca 10 units. With any of the other scores hitting the average profit would be ca 8 units (if everything hits). Lets just hope we dont lose the full 4 units, even +-0 is good in our testing phase. Basically all plays tonight are in our testing systems. We have only backtested the Shutout+ system, so thats something, we havent followed it much but its around +-0 right now. The Reg system is probably good as its based on the Shutout+ system category pick (although the category pick as ML and PL were just ca 4 % ROI) but we have no idea about the BigOver, dont have the energy to back test it yet.
Reg system bets, 1 unit each:
1. Kings
- This hit, but we still need to back test this. Is easy and fast to back test.
BigOver system bets, 1 unit each:
1. Jets-Islanders O7,5 goals
2. Toronto-TB O6,5 (0,5 units) and O7,5 (0,5 units)
- Lost both. Jets game had 6 goals, Toronto game had 5 goals.
- We need to seriously back test this system. Not sure how easily or fast or reliably we can do it though.. We should take into consideration the dates of the games (which are not easy to arrange in my data), also the O5,5 odds, as it has to be -110 or more. We might just leave out that part and just see the dates to see if any game can end up with a huge amount of goals. And if so, maybe then we start playing just the overs with the biggest biggest biggest odds.
- If we can not back test this, then we will do the biggest odds with something like 0,1 units each.
Shutout+ system bets, 0,1 unit each score:
1. Buffalo-LA 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, 0-6, 1-5, 2-5, 1-6, 2-6
- This hit! 0-2. Odds of +3400. 0-1 wouldve been even better, then again 0-3 wouldve been worse. 0-2 is gooood.
Total for the night: +1,3 units.
Conclusion: We are betting altogether 8 units on 4 games, thats pretty sick for us. Its the biggest amount of units we have bet for such a small amount of games. Also, we have not bet 8 units in one night since I think January. We could potentially lose all 8 units easily. What we can profit is maximum 33 units. Of course we wont but we could I would be again happy with +-0 as we STILL have not back tested the BigOver system or the Reg part of the category bets. Too many things to do in "real life". We still hope for a big profit as always. The point of having many systems (our goal is 10 systems) is to basically decrease the risk, decrease the variance, of course in addition to winning loads of cash. We could e.g. bet all 8 units on Pittsburgh winning PL to get a profit of 8 units but what if they dont get there? Would we bet 8 units again on a single match tomorrow? I dont think we could. Our BR is not like 800 or even 400 units right now to justify any sort of 8 unit bet on a single game. Anyways, just some thoughts.
Damn, we missed basically everything we can miss. Two reg bets hit so we didnt lose it all. Still -4.5 units for the night, not good. Oh well, at least we will put th BigOver bets on hold until we back test them. Reg bets we will continue as we seem to win almost all of them. Shutout+ will continue but we will return to our original tighter category until we have back tested this "improved" category. This affects the amount of reg bets too. We dont want to blow our roll away with untested stuff.
BigOver system: Difficult to really calculate for this exact time of the year with the exact odds games we have been playing with. The ROI for a full year was -33 % ROI though. I dont think this is a +ROI system with e.g. just with March.
Verdict: Shut down the system immediately.
Next up: Back testing the Under system for the playoffs.
BigOver system and Under system for March:
- BigOver: Not profitable in any shape or form.
- Under: Still most likely profitable even in March, I will still not continue though as I would have to calculate it also with the exact odds for March with multiple seasons. Dont have the time to do it and its not worth it either when looking at the rest of the season, in my opinion. I will probably calculate different parts of the season for next season, to see when to use the system and when not.
BigOver system and Under system AND the Shutout+ system for Playoffs:
- Bigover: Surprisingly very profitable when playing all playoffs games O8,5Reg.
- Under: Profitable or not, depends a lot on the odds we are getting. Need to also calculate with multiple previous seasons with the the exacts odds in the games on the playoffs for those season. Not sure if I will have the time to do it. If the odds on average are ca +250 for all games, then we could just do all possible games U4,5.
- Shutout+: This was very suprsising as well. Well actually, not really when compared to the full season, basically the same awesome results. I might leave out the small odds scores such as 5-1, 5-2, 6-1, 6-2 and even the 3-0 and 4-0 (maybe even the rare 5-0 and 6-0). That would leave us with just 1-0 and 2-0.
Conclusion: Our active systems until the playoffs are the Early goal system and the Shutout+ system. We actually might change it into a Shutout- system and have just the 1-0 and 2-0 for our Category picks for the playoffs. We still have loads to calculate on the Shutout system too though.. So I dont know if we want to keep playing it either right now.. Lets say someone would play just 1-0 and 0-1 for all games through the whole season. That would give a ROI of -8 %. We dont want to end there. So before we can calculate what games to actually have in e.g. just 1-0 and 2-0 games we might as well just continue with the normal Shutout+ system. Does that make sense? Not sure but the ROI in these correct scores is just too good to pass right now. We still dislike the increased variance that it brings but we want to keep doing it still.
Playoffs systems, maybe: - Under system: For all games if the odds are on average ca +250. They probably are much less. (fast second calculation shows that even average odds of ca +225 are enough to play all the games). If the odds are low, we might then do the "Normal" Under system for just the games with odds of at least +270 or or we will not play the Under system at all. - BigOver system: We will probably do O8,5Reg for all games. - Early goal system: We will use it the same way as during the season. - Shutout+ system: We might turn this into a Shutout- system and just play 1-0 and 2-0 for each side of each game. Playing 0-1 to 0-5 for each game for both sides would yield a loss of -5 % ROI. We need to back test more playoff seasons for e.g. the 1-0 and 2-0 scores. Also to see if the favorites or the dogs win with those scores etc.
As we can see, we are still very very starting with all this system stuff. Many small things affect the ROI in a big way. Misestimations/miscalculations have huge impact on our plays, as we might end up playing the wrong things and losing loads of units. I think we are already much wiser next season.
Early goal system, 0,5 units each:
- Colorado or Detroit, Columbus or NYI
Shutout+ bets, 0,1 units each:
- Vancouver-Edmonton: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, 0-6, 1-5, 2-5, 1-6, 2-6.
Odds for those scores are: +5900, +3400, +2400, +3900, +5900, +9900, +2900, +2150, +5900, +5900.
I think I have to recalculate the average odds for this category. Im pretty sure it (my previous calculations) is a bit off and might make it -ROI in the long run with all these scores. We might have to find a new category that would have bigger odds. That category will if course hit less often too and I need to calculate it. Some scores such as 2-5 and 2-6 are most likely not profitable at all.
With that said, this could be the last Shutout+ bet for now. I dont want to play it if there is a risk of it being negative in ROI in the long run.
We are quite tempted to change the Shutout+ system already to a Shutout- system with just the scores 0-1 and 0-2. It will not work with out current category though, as the odds are too small (average for 0-1 is ca +6400 and 0-2 is ca +3400). The odds, in playoffs when our current catogory no longer exists, are gonna be more like +8000 and +5500.
Example game for our Playoffs-category: Hurricanes-Flyers: +9900 and +5900 for Hurricanes, +7400 and +4900 for Flyers. Just for future reference:
- 3-0/0-3: +5900/+3900
- 4-0/0-4: +9900/+7400
- 5-0/0-5: +9900/+9900
- 6-0/0-6: +9900/+9900
We could extend the category all the way to 4-0/0-4. That would mean, for a 4 game playoff evening: 0,1 units x 8 scores x 4 games = 3,2 units played on Shutout bets.
We are also planning to have U4,5 and O8,5 for all games. That would be: 2 bets per game, altogether 8 bets per evening. If we have our normal lowered bet sizing of 0,5 units, that would be 4 units more for the night. Altogether 7,2 units played per night. Hmm, a tad too much in my opinion. We will see what to do after we have calculated the last e.g. 6 playoffs seasons. Maybe we have just the 1-0/0-1 and 2-0/0-2 for 0,1 units each, altogether 1,6 units per night. Then all games U4,5 for 0,4 units each, thats another 1,6 units. And finally the O8,5 bets for 0,2 units each. That would be altogether 4 units bet per night. But yea, we will back test and see what to do.
We did not hit the Shutout+ bet. We also missed 3 early goal bets: NJ and Minnesota x 2. We bet NJ to win when they were down 1 goal, we bet Minnesota to tie or to win when they were down 2. Too bad it didnt hit, wouldve been good money.
Total for the night: -2,5 units.
All systems so far: +33,9 units.
By the way, I think we want to change to our playoff mode already now, at least partly. That is because if there is only 1 game to bet each night, I will just spend money on capping games to keep it exciting, and that just loses me money/increases the variance too much.
So what I am planning to start today is:
Early goal system: No changes, keep it as it is, 0,5 units per bet. Max 1 unit bet per day. Under system: Bringing it back, the 2 highest odds Under 4,5 for each round, and in the playoffs all possible games, 0,5 units per bet. Max 1 unit bet per day. BigOver system: For all games, 0,1 or 0,2 units per bet, depending on the amount of games. Max 1 unit bet per day. Shutout- system: Starting it now, but keeping our current category until the playoffs, and in playoffs all possible games, 0,125 or 0,25 units per bet, depending on the amount of games. Max 1 unit bet per day.
That will give us total bets of ca 3 units per night, and ca 4 units per night on weekends. The same amounts will continue in the playoffs because there will be less games then.
Shutout- (0,25 units per score):
1. Coyotes-Predators 0-1, 0-2
BigOver (0,2 units per bet):
- All games for tonight to go Over8,5
Under (0,5 units per bet):
1. SJ-Dallas U4,5
2. Boston-Toronto U4,5
The only "bad" thing about having the systems like this is that we bet against ourselves The reasoning behind this is that the games can pretty much go either way, they can stay at U4,5 goals or the goals just keep coming and end up O8,5. Of course most of the scores ends in between these. Still, the odds are high enough to justify this. Have not back tested these together for the regular season but will do it in any case. Back tested it for the playoffs and received great results.
We underestimated the category pick PL odds. We calculated with more correct odds and got a +12,5 ROI. Hence we will bring it back, 0,5 units each bet.
Tonight's bet:
Under bets, 0,5 units each:
1. Flyers-Jets U4,75
2. Penguins-Sabres U4,75
Category bets -1,5 handicap, 0,5 units each:
1. Washington
2. TB
3. Chicago
4. Montreal
Bigover bets, 0,1 units each:
- Over8,5 goals for each game of the night
We hit 1 under and 1 half under was a Push. We hit one Reg PL and lost 3. We did not hit any overs or correct scores. Many games lately going south just seconds before the end, the Jets game was an U4,5 2 seconds before the end etc. But it happens both ways in the long run.
Total for the night: -1,6 units
All systems total: +31,8 units.
The big odds bets are bringing more variance as expected. We should hit some of them shortly. The correct scores bring a profit of 4 to 16 units each time they hit, so lets just hope they start htting before we go busto.
Ok, we are going into playoffs-mode for one night, as there are only three games.
What playoffs mode is and at the same time today's bets: Under-system: All games of the night to end U4,5 for 0,5 units per game. Odds are ca +270. BigOver-system: All games of the night to end O8,5 for 0,2 units per game. Odds are ca +750. Shutout- -system: All games to end 1-0, 2-0, 0-1 and 0-2 for 0,125 units per score. Odds are ca +7000.
I think Im gonna wish us bad luck this time, as we havent been that lucky lately. Just noticed that the Toronto game U4,5 was crushed 2 nights ago by the teams scoring 4 goals during the last 2 minutes. Two goals wouldve still been ok but damn, that happens
We missed everything. Total of -3,6 units for the night.
We are in a bit of a downward spiral. Normally thats fine with a long season but right now it seems like we're just testing how this stuff goes. We even backtested the BigOver with bad results and we are still playing it, which is just gambling, I dont like gambling nowadays. The end of the season seems a bit strange with the consistency of the Under and the Shutout- as well.
Therefore, the stuff that we HAVE backtested with GOOD results will be the thing for the rest of the season.
What we will do now is: We will WAIT until the playoffs start then the start again the systems we tried above. We will BACKTEST the systems before that for the last ca 8 seasons for the playoffs. If the results are even close to as good as they were for the seasons I tested, I will play the whole playoffs as described in one of the previous posts. If the results are bad for any of the systems, then we will not do that system for the playoffs. If the results are bad for all systems, we will do none of them for the playoffs and will return stronger next season.
We will still do the Early goal system whenever we are awake, but we will return to the original version of playing the favorite or the even team to win when they give an early goal. We will take out the playing the dog when they give an early goal. Not sure why we started that again.
Results for all systems so far: +28,2 units. And thats actually still pretty awesome as these systems have been in place only from the 7th of January. I think most people would be very happy with that for the whole season. Not sure how much people normally win.
So, dont expect any picks until the playoffs. Only Early goal picks if they are available.
Thanks for following so far, I appreciate everyone who reads any of this stuff We are testing and testing and testing and hopefully will find the systems that work the best and give us loads of cash. When they start working really well, we start upping our unit size. You know my goal if youve read a few pages back.
Just got done backtesting the playoffs from 2010 to 2016. Have the backtesting done for all possible and impossible Overs, Unders and Correct scores. Just need to wait now for the odds for the playoffs. I was first very very very happy with the results until I checked the lines for O/U for the previous years for playoffs. If those numbers are right, it means that almost every game has a line of 5 which makes the Under system pretty much a +-0. Same with any type of Over system.
Correct scores has a an amazing feature in them that bring a huge profit, if the odds are anywhere close to the regular season. If not... well, lets just hope that they are not too low to not be able to play anything for the playoffs. If so, then be it. I will already do some checks with the odds and estimate them for the playoffs in the coming evenings. The only even close to comparable game to any of the playoffs games is the Ducks-Rangers for tonight and the odds are perfect, but I think that sadly they will be much lower in the playoffs.
I will return with more info and with hopefully loads of plays for the playoffs If theres none, well, then we will have loads of time to come up with systems for the next season.
I have been doing some brainstorming on new NHL systems in the other forum where I started my systems. There will probably be an away favorite ML system for the next season. That was created by brilliant dude and I was merely involved in the back testing process/giving ideas. Heard just now about the wonders of SDQL queries. Will try to learn them during the summer for the next season.
With that said, I think I must move back to the site where I came from, as:
1. There are loads of folk backtesting and innovating systems. And mainly:
2. I am not getting any ideas or thoughts for my systems here.
I need ideas and feedback/comments on the systems to be able to improve them. Otherwise they will not go anywhere. I left that site because of the lack of ideas but it seems to have picked up now that MLB is starting.
So I am most likely moving there for a while. I might post the playoffs stuff here, maybe, at least maybe the stuff that I intend to do so that anyone interested can easily do the picks themselves.
I will follow this forum too though. If you want to find me, just type on Google "Scrivero HOTS NHL betting system".
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I would be again happy with +-0 as we STILL have not back tested the BigOver system or the Reg part of the category bets. Too many things to do in "real life". We still hope for a big profit as always. The point of having many systems (our goal is 10 systems) is to basically decrease the risk, decrease the variance, of course in addition to winning loads of cash. We could e.g. bet all 8 units on Pittsburgh winning PL to get a profit of 8 units but what if they dont get there? Would we bet 8 units again on a single match tomorrow? I dont think we could. Our BR is not like 800 or even 400 units right now to justify any sort of 8 unit bet on a single game. Anyways, just some thoughts.
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