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Hockey 2016 - 2017
This thread will be for hockey related materials, not necessarily just NHL.
I may post some picks, comments on games, or what others have said on forums, etc.
Others are free to engage within the conversation guidelines of the site.
Cheers & best of luck with all your investing, whether in sports games or otherwise.
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If you had ever tried extensive coin flipping, or casino game playing, or bet hundreds of NHL wagers you would obviously know that runs of 8-1, 1-8 & the like are quite common. Get back to me after you've made enough wagers to rule out sheer luck. Anyone boasting as if they've proven anything at all after such a miniscule size sample only displays their ignorance of sports gambling & paints their own forehead with the word "novice".Originally Posted by Flea Hotel
YTD (8-1, 7.88u) Sure am getting lucky flipping that coin.
Last edited by Nostradam; 12-19-16 at 06:49 AM.
sidney crosby has 21 goals in 26 games i made a bet he can score 50 in 50 games only rocket richard has ever done it
"The reason I'm even bringing this up is because you keep going on and on about how "you can't show me anyone here who's picking games at 67% a clip," when hitting 67%, 63% now, basically doesn't mean anything over the course of roughly 60 games. You could flip a coin 60 times and hit 75% or more no problem, so you can see how insignificant of a sample that is. I remember you really struggling last year which is why I'm posting this up now, I didn't say anything then. Feel free to fact check me yourself or anyone following your plays. I'm having a break even/slightly winning year myself but it's not a big deal because I haven't bet that many games. In 2014, I hit over 60%. In 2015, I hit around 55%. Again this is all relatively meaningless until you have capped 500, 800, 1000+ games which would probably take over a decade of betting the NFL at the rate you're betting. Realistically, you'd need at the bare minimum 500-1000 games before you will really have any idea if you're winning at "67% a clip" simply due to the volatile nature/variance of betting the NFL. Just bringing you down to earth a little bit. Take it as you will. Good luck the rest of the season kid."
Anything intelligent to contribute? LOL
I'm killing it in the NFL & on a roll in the NHL. Documented online.
My posted record in every sport is +EV. That includes NBA, NHL, NFL, etc
post some picks, i suck at capping the NFL. i'll tail anything, even you, especially if you're a hot Asian girl.
Dude, you do know what EV is right? I think you mean ROI. EV is "expected value", aka, perceived and anticipated value in the future. No one can present +/- EV on anything completed. The term EV is used a lot with ROI in things like business plans, proposals, etc. ROI is the return on investment that you can or have made.
It's all in the first couple of weeks of Intro to Economics at any half decent university. I took it, when I was 18, before I was a lowly PhD candidate in Statistics.
Expected Value on posted picks is oxymoronic. No one can put EV on a sports pick. ROI is the term you overheard. It's super cute that you keep using EV though.
I love you.
Yes, i know what EV is. I've been sports gambling longer than you've existed.
You mistook my meaning. My record in every sport is an example (or the result) of bets made +EV.
Of course i can. I had posted online the BJ's -0.5 + money (& at +EV as i capped it) before JayRow posted his minus EV loser on the Habs tonight. That was a no brainer.
Last edited by Nostradam; 12-23-16 at 09:38 PM.
Uh-huh. Don't forget to take your risperidone today.
"If you calculate your own probability for a match that differs from the implied probability of the odds, you could see where to find a positive EV, and therefore the best chance to win."
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/betting-strategy/how-to-calculate-expected-value
Yeah but that's based on YOUR speculative data for future, not past action. ROI shows how much your PROFIT is. No capper gives themselves or their picks an EV, that's fuking redundant and retarded. The cappers prospected "EV" is in the bet itself, why the hell would anyone give the EV of their pick, it's implied in the bet. If I say, for example, take the Pens to win, +100, the EV is 100% is the capper believes the Penguins will win the game. No one knows the EV of their pick, it's entirely subjective and hence, nonsensical information. ROI is excellent information to show how a certain capper is doing as far as their ability to FIND "EV" in a future pick.
Let me try to break this down for you.
Expected = future. Expected Value = Expected Value of something BY someone. In games like blackjack or poker, nearly objective EV values can be deduced, but in sports betting, the line itself provides the "EV", or more aptly worded, "Implied Probability".
Unless you have a time machine and can go into the future, no capper can give their pick with objective or even pseduo-objective expected value. That's why it's called gambling.
Hope that helped.
Last edited by Flea Hotel; 12-24-16 at 03:59 PM.
Who said anything about "objective expected value" (EV)?
If you had read the article i referenced from the Pinnacle website, it spoke of the subjective & positive EV:
"Unlike a coin toss, sports betting odds are subjective, and therefore if you outsmart the bookmaker, you’re likely to make money."
"If you calculate your own probability for a match that differs from the implied probability of the odds, you could see where to find a positive EV, and therefore the best chance to win."
and your chance to outsmart a bookmaker over 1000s reps is exactly 0.00%
Anyone who doesn't believe Asperger's is real just needs to read some of your stuff. You're like the aspartame of trolls.
Last edited by Flea Hotel; 12-25-16 at 11:41 AM.
A bit stoned and bored while the GF and her weird family are out doing weird shit...
Maybe it's the kush talking but you can flip a coin 60 times and hit 75% no problem? No problem? I just did it a couple of times. The first time, it was 33 Tails, 27 heads, and the second time, it was 32 Heads, 28 Tails. 75% of the time would be 45-15. I'll try again but I'd say it's not that easy to do. I think 60 isn't a great sample size but it's enough to give some kind of indicator. If you rolled heads or tails 45 times out of 60, that would be pretty fuking impressive. Moreover, I usually pick plus money plays, which further decimates your already inane argument. Lastly, you haven't made one on god damned pick on this site, all you do is troll. You're 0-0-0, 0u. Wallco, myself, and JayFlo are all up cash money. They only thing that your up in is blood sugar and your PSA score."The reason I'm even bringing this up is because you keep going on and on about how "you can't show me anyone here who's picking games at 67% a clip," when hitting 67%, 63% now, basically doesn't mean anything over the course of roughly 60 games. You could flip a coin 60 times and hit 75% or more no problem, so you can see how insignificant of a sample that is. I remember you really struggling last year which is why I'm posting this up now, I didn't say anything then. Feel free to fact check me yourself or anyone following your plays. I'm having a break even/slightly winning year myself but it's not a big deal because I haven't bet that many games. In 2014, I hit over 60%. In 2015, I hit around 55%. Again this is all relatively meaningless until you have capped 500, 800, 1000+ games which would probably take over a decade of betting the NFL at the rate you're betting. Realistically, you'd need at the bare minimum 500-1000 games before you will really have any idea if you're winning at "67% a clip" simply due to the volatile nature/variance of betting the NFL. Just bringing you down to earth a little bit. Take it as you will. Good luck the rest of the season kid."
Nobody said you'ld hit 75% in the first two tries.A bit stoned and bored while the GF and her weird family are out doing weird shit...
Maybe it's the kush talking but you can flip a coin 60 times and hit 75% no problem? No problem? I just did it a couple of times. The first time, it was 33 Tails, 27 heads, and the second time, it was 32 Heads, 28 Tails. 75% of the time would be 45-15. I'll try again but I'd say it's not that easy to do. I think 60 isn't a great sample size but it's enough to give some kind of indicator. If you rolled heads or tails 45 times out of 60, that would be pretty fuking impressive. Moreover, I usually pick plus money plays, which further decimates your already inane argument. Lastly, you haven't made one on god damned pick on this site, all you do is troll. You're 0-0-0, 0u. Wallco, myself, and JayFlo are all up cash money. They only thing that your up in is blood sugar and your PSA score.
JayRow isn't hiting anywhere near 75%. Nor is his sample size large enough to rule out flipping coins to choose his bets.
You're not going to hit even 50% in the long term, over 100's of bets, on your plus money plays. Your sample size is extremely puny, so it could easily be just pure luck.
Wallco's system is losing this year & lost the two years before that, according to info posted in his thread the other day. Whats to keep it from losing 10 years in a row? I guess that explains why my queries weren't answered re up to date records.
If you think the Wallco system is great then maybe you are at odds with JayRow who said "this system is dead".
JayRow also disapproves of making a vast majority of bets for 2 units while many of yours are correlated plays on the same game of 1 unit + 1 unit which equals 2 units. Capish?
What "inane argument" are you referring to. The quote you replied to wasn't even mine. That it was in quotes should have been a clue.
What would motivate me to post my picks or any useful intel here when whenever i try to have intelligent discussions i recieve little but a barrage of insults in return? Bragging rights over a bunch of anonymous internet users?
Last edited by Nostradam; 12-25-16 at 02:30 PM.
I don't follow any system but mine. Been profitable since... LIFETIME. I've never had a losing season, ever. Been outcapping donks like you since high school. Bankroll management and knowing my shit = cash money. And do you know what cash money really helps with son? Getting hot Asian girls that are young enough to be your granddaughter. See, you're a trolling/hating kind of a guy. I'm a cash money making/hot Asian girl getting kind of guy. We both roll our own way. You are legally insane, we all know it, and I think it's cute.
You have the personality of a dead moth. Why don't you go get a horse and go live out in the woods and don't bother anyone.Nobody said you'ld hit 75% in the first two tries.
JayRow isn't hiting anywhere near 75%. Nor is his sample size large enough to rule out flipping coins to choose his bets.
You're not going to hit even 50% in the long term, over 100's of bets, on your plus money plays. Your sample size is extremely puny, so it could easily be just pure luck.
Wallco's system is losing this year & lost the two years before that, according to info posted in his thread the other day. Whats to keep it from losing 10 years in a row? I guess that explains why my queries weren't answered re up to date records.
If you think the Wallco system is great then maybe you are at odds with JayRow who said "this system is dead".
JayRow also disapproves of making a vast majority of bets for 2 units while many of yours are correlated plays on the same game of 1 unit + 1 unit which equals 2 units. Capish?
What "inane argument" are you referring to. The quote you replied to wasn't even mine. That it was in quotes should have been a clue.
What would motivate me to post my picks or any useful intel here when whenever i try to have intelligent discussions i recieve little but a barrage of insults in return? Bragging rights over a bunch of anonymous internet users?
LOL. More of the same. WOMT.
Will you be my valentine?
HAHAHAHA DAMN GUYS.
I do like the Valentine comment lol.
23 Shocking and Unexpected Truths You Learn from Betting on Sports
Sports betting can reveal many things to bettors as they progress from beginner, to average, to winning.
Some of these things may not be surprising, but some of them can be downright shocking.
Here's a list of things you may learn from betting on sports:
1 – Picking Winning Teams with the Spread Is Hard
Most sports bettors get started by betting on their favorite teams with other fans. Usually point spreads and vig aren't involved. They just bet on who will win the game.
If you start winning more often than you lose, you might start thinking it isn't that hard to pick winners.
When you start adding point spreads and vig, it gets a lot harder to win consistently.
It makes it so difficult that most sports bettors end up losing money in the long run.
2 – There's No Such Thing as a Sure Thing
You can find numerous opportunities that are heavily in your favor, but the existence of a sure thing in sports betting doesn't exist.
Never over-bet your bankroll--no matter how good a betting situation may appear.
Find someone giving you advice on a game that's a sure thing?
Be instantly skeptical.
Can the person benefit in any way from giving you the information?
Usually the person with the sure thing is trying to sell me something.
3 – Home Teams Win More Often, But Not More Often Enough
Home teams have an advantage in just about all sports.
But it isn't enough to be used in a profitable nature by sports bettors.
When they set the lines, books factor in home field advantage. So you have to find other things to use when handicapping games. You need to use the home team advantage in your calculations as well--so you can see where a sports book may be giving a home team too much or too little credit.
4 – Betting on Sports Is Hard Work - If You Want To Win, Anyway
Betting on sports is easy
But becoming a winning sports bettor requires a lot of work.
Want to win?
You have to study players, teams, games, statistics, models (the statistical kind, not the swimsuit wearing ones), and anything else that might give you an edge.
Hoping to get an edge while spending a few hours a week watching games or looking at stats online is a quick route to the poor house. Even if you're lucky enough to win for a while, your luck will run out eventually--unless you put in the required work to be a winner.
5 – Being a Stats Nerd Helps
I don't know why so many people associate the word nerd with something bad. It might not be the best occupation in high school, but most of the people with big money could be called nerds. Computer and software companies make lots of cash.
Sports bettors need to find and process a great deal of statistical data. It helps if you're already a stats person. You don't HAVE to be a stats nerd to become a winning sports bettor.
But you're probably going to have to hire out the work or learn how to process numbers.
6 – Bankroll Management Is Almost as Important as Picking Winners
If you can't pick winners, it doesn't matter how you manage your bankroll. Even if you're an overall winner, mismanage your bankroll, and you'll still lose.
You have to have enough money to bet on every game that gives you an edge without risking too much on any single event.
7 – Picking 50% Winners Is Easy - Picking 53% Winners Is the Holy Grail
It's amazing how much more difficult it is to pick winners 53% of the time than it is to pick them 50% of the time.
You can pick winners by flipping a coin, and you'll win 50% of the time in the long run.
Assuming a standard 10% vig, you need to win 53% of the time to profit in the long run.
Only a select few sports bettors pick 53% or better. You don't find many of them.
Start tracking your sports betting results immediately. See how often you currently win. See if you can figure out how to start climbing toward the magical 53% mark.
8 – Your Favorite Team Sucks
Once you start betting in a serious manner, you often start seeing all of the flaws your favorite team has. As a fan you can usually ignore minor flaws, but as a sports bettor you have to see every flaw to make smart bets.
9 – You Can't Bet on Games Involving Your Favorite Team
Only the best sports bettors are able to ignore their personal feelings about their favorite team and bet for or against them. I've been betting on sports for years. I still won't bet on a game involving my favorite team. I have a hard time being objective when evaluating their play, so I avoid the conflict.
10 – Watching Games Isn't Fun Anymore
It's hard to watch games for enjoyment once you start betting on sports. You find yourself looking for ways to gain an advantage and have a hard time getting into "fan" mode.
11 – Anyone Can Bet - Few Can Win
Anyone can find someone to take their bets, but only a few actually win in the long run.
The real winners in the sports betting industry are the books who charge a percentage on losing wagers.
Do you really want to start raking in the money?
Figure out how you can set up a legal bookmaking operation.
12 – It's Not a Hobby
Winning sports bettors act like betting on sports is a business or a job, not a hobby.
What's the difference?
Hobbies cost money.
Businesses earn money.
13 – It's Only a Problem if You Lose
In no way do I support problem gamblers placing wagers. If you have a problem, find help right now.
But many of the sports bettors I thought had a problem said this to me:
"It's only a problem if you're losing."
A problem gambler might be aware that he has a problem.
But he only recognizes it as a possible problem if he's losing.
Here's the thought process:
If you're winning you can't possibly have a gambling problem.
Not sure if you have a problem, even though you're winning?
Try this quiz.
14 – Football Is Popular - but Baseball and Regular Season Basketball Can Be Gold Mines
Most bets are placed during football season. The sports books spend most of their resources making sure they put out the best betting lines possible for football games.
They want to publish good lines during baseball and basketball season, too.
But you can find many wagering opportunities during baseball and basketball season. Both games are easier to profit from than professional football.
15 – College Sports Are Easier to Handicap than Pro Sports
College sports are easier to handicap than professional sports. The sports books focus on pro sports before they look at college games.
It's the same reason why baseball and basketball can be profitable—only more so.
16 – Getting Large Bets Down Can Be as Hard as Picking Winners
When you start winning on a consistent basis, your bankroll starts growing. Eventually you can reach a point where the bets you want to place become bigger than your betting limits.
The next thing you do is start placing bets in more than one place. Eventually even this can become hard to manage.
This is a good problem to have. It means you're winning.
But when you have an edge, you want to get as much money as you can down on a game (while maintaining safe bankroll considerations).
17 – A Regular Job Might Be More Profitable
Few sports bettors actually win in the long run.
Even some of the profitable sports bettors don't make enough to make it a better option than a job.
If you track all of your sports betting action, you can get an idea if you're better off financially than working.
18 – Specialize Before You Run
You need to walk before you run.
You also need to pick a sport and start winning consistently before you start betting on other sports.
Dividing your attention between two or more sports can keep you from winning in any of them.
19 – You CAN Do It Alone - But Outside Help Can Be Valuable
Most sports bettors start their betting career on their own, but as they grow they have the opportunity to use other people to help them get better. Instead of doing all of the research yourself, consider outsourcing it using a freelancer or part time employee.
20 – Amateurs Pick Games - Pros Handicap Games
If you want to be a professional sports bettor, focus on handicapping games, not picking them.
When you handicap a game you look at both sides, the line, and all of the information you have. Using all of these things you decide if the line offers an edge on either side.
If you just pick games, you aren't taking it seriously enough. Eventually you'll start losing.
21 – You Might Be Better Off Playing Roulette
Most sports bettors only pick winners about 50% of the time. If you're no better than average, you could just bet on red or black on the roulette wheel. You'd have roughly the same chance of winning.
22 – Paying Less Vig Is the Same as Winning More
When you pay the normal 10% vig on losing wagers, it means you have to win more to show a profit. Any lower amount of vig you can pay reduces the amount you need to win in order to come out ahead.
You can find special deals offering reduced vig by shopping around with different sports books--both land based and online.
23 – Inside Information Is Great - But It's Not Everything
Professional sports bettors are always trying to find inside information. They know if they can get the right kind of information before the sports books, it can be worth a great deal of money.
But they also understand that inside information, no matter how valuable it may seem, is only a part of their overall handicapping equation.
Don't put too much faith in any single thing about a game. Evaluate everything you know to make a winning decision before placing a bet.
Conclusion
Learning about these unexpected truths can help you avoid losing money in your own sports betting career.
http://www.gamblingsitesonline.org/s...ing-on-sports/
Thanks for the tips Nostradame! You rule!
LOL, #5. Does being a PhD candidate in Statistics count? McGill University, Class of 2017.
ND, I hope you didn't lock yourself out again. I hate the idea of you being stuck in your bathroom window again.
Thinking of you.
Allegedly so. On a forum such as this anyone can pretend to be whatever. Proving it is a whole other animal, Flea Hotel,
or in your case, flea. Even if true, it does not translate to an ability to win long term at sports gambling.
All i've seen so far from you is mostly riding a few hot teams who are streaking lately. You love your chalk teams with puck lines. Before long these teams will turn cold as will your picks.
Your plays are often highly correlated, so the records are inflated. If the records of correlated plays were cut down by about 50% as they deserve, a record of 10-4 becomes 5-2, as it should fairly & honestly be.
You've already admitted that you sucked early in the year. Also another posted said whenever you spoke of alternate line plays they lost.
Keepin' it real, rather than in the fog of pot, booze, etc.
By the way, idiot, if I like a team to win by 2, of course I'm going to lean towards taking the TT. Correlated plays don't inflate anything. If they win, they win, if they lose, they lose. Why do you SBR haters just sit around and pick on winning players? And I do smoke weed but I'd bet money, something of which you probably have very little of, that your blood is filled with a lot questionable stuff than mine. Get a fukin life loser, and if you're retarded, whoever your legal guardian is, get this clown off the fuking internet. I hope we meet in person one day. Ты кто по жизни вообще?
That doesn't respond to the points i made in my post.
Betting correlated plays & counting each of them a separate winner on your W-L record inflates your W-L records.
It's like betting a team to win on the ML and on the -0.5 line & counting that as 2-0 instead of 1-0 on your records.
It's not the same as a person who bets separate teams & goes 2-0.
Hopefully that helps for an understanding of my comments, but i can elaborate further if necessary.
Best of luck, as always.
Last edited by Nostradam; 12-30-16 at 11:56 AM.
I don't follow any system but mine. Been profitable since... LIFETIME. I've never had a losing season, ever. Been outcapping donks like you since high school. Bankroll management and knowing my shit = cash money. And do you know what cash money really helps with son? Getting hot Asian girls that are young enough to be your granddaughter. See, you're a trolling/hating kind of a guy. I'm a cash money making/hot Asian girl getting kind of guy. We both roll our own way. You are legally insane, we all know it, and I think it's cute.
You have the personality of a dead moth. Why don't you go get a horse and go live out in the woods and don't bother anyone.
Here's a suggestion. If my posts make you so extremely uncivil & uncivilized, why don't you find another thread to read or troll. It appears you'ld be much happier. OTOH if you can control yourself & discuss ideas rationally, then you are welcome to contribute here in my thread.
BTW, as you know, as a courtesy I've already promised to stay out of your threads forever, at your request. And have kept my word.
"By agreeing to these rules, you warrant that you will not post any messages that are obscene, vulgar, sexually-oriented, hateful, threatening, or otherwise violative of any laws. SBR reserves the right to limit or prohibit restricted posting accounts from participating in forum-hosted contests."
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/misc.php?do=showrules
"We welcome lively and passionate debate, but when the posts turn simply personal in nature, SBR reserves the right to either edit or move those posts as seen fit. If anyone sees a thread or post that appears out of line, please report the post using thereport post link that appears under all posters’ ID and avatar."
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/faq.php
Last edited by Nostradam; 12-30-16 at 02:04 PM.
Columbus to win 21 straight book it
Sorry if you took offence. In my defense, you haven't once said thank you for the +24.37 units in less than a month I've made you with my NHL picks. That's a LOT of money in your pocket, thanks to me. I'd say a thank you is in order. Good continued copy and pasting by the way.
You know I love you. Every time my winnings get transferred to my e-wallet, I think of you and smile.Here's a suggestion. If my posts make you so extremely uncivil & uncivilized, why don't you find another thread to read or troll. It appears you'ld be much happier. OTOH if you can control yourself & discuss ideas rationally, then you are welcome to contribute here in my thread.
BTW, as you know, as a courtesy I've already promised to stay out of your threads forever, at your request. And have kept my word.
"By agreeing to these rules, you warrant that you will not post any messages that are obscene, vulgar, sexually-oriented, hateful, threatening, or otherwise violative of any laws. SBR reserves the right to limit or prohibit restricted posting accounts from participating in forum-hosted contests."
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/misc.php?do=showrules
"We welcome lively and passionate debate, but when the posts turn simply personal in nature, SBR reserves the right to either edit or move those posts as seen fit. If anyone sees a thread or post that appears out of line, please report the post using the
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/faq.php
Then i'd have to thank hundreds of short term fly by night, for all i know coin flippers, on the internet. With the vast majority of them they are no better than flipping your own coin to choose a side or pick.
Again, those "units" (and your records) are inflated numbers. You should cut them down by about 40%.
For your follower it's lucky he didn't catch your picks when they were going up in flames, as mentioned earlier in this thread.
Where's your documented winning record over 10+ years & 100's of plays as the guy i posted?
No need to thank me for that.
There's a guy who also states why he chooses a side, (unlike you) teaching others how to win.
Like i'm also doing in this thread.
Feed a man for a day, or teach him how to feed himself for a lifetime? Option B is obviously superior.
Good info is better than a random poster typing out picks on a forum.
Last edited by Nostradam; 12-31-16 at 06:02 AM.
Well I love this thread.
My father passed away when I was young in a car crash so you've sort of become like a father figure to me. Your insight and words of wisdom, well, I find them truly inspiring. I will dedicate 2017 to picking so many winners that I finally get your approval. Until then, I will learn from your truly profound rhetoric and sadly, use cash money and extremely hot Asian girls as a substitute for your aforementioned approval, until I have been taught.
Sincerely, I hope you have a great New Year's Eve. You're like the father I never had.
Flea Hotel gave Nostradam 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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