I understand. Thank you for the input.Originally Posted by million2one
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02-09-10 12:19 PM #36
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02-10-10 05:16 PM #37
Time to take a break and wait until the Olympics is over, I would make a play on Anaheim tonight if not for the looming break in the season. I'll maybe tweak my dollar amounts and come back strong after the break.
Puck line:
10- 5; +$99.00
Money line:
10- 3 overall
10- 0 as chase; +$50
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03-08-10 11:52 AM #38
It's been a month and I have been waiting patiently to jump back into my NHL system, hopefully I can pick up where I left off.
Big play today on some big juice.
Puck line:
10- 5; +$99.00
Washington Capitals (-1.5) (+100) risking $10
Money line:
10- 3 overall
10- 0 as chase; +$50
Washington Capitals (-270); [A] bet; to win $5
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03-08-10 12:22 PM #39
Been looking over your thread.............. and have come to the conclusion that either you are very lucky or very good but either way you have a proven record so keep up the good work.
XB
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03-08-10 04:53 PM #40
I think it is mostly very lucky.
But the mathematics I use is very sound, I think.
I guess one never knows for sure, I just believe in what I am doing.Last edited by million2one; 03-08-10 at 05:00 PM.
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03-08-10 05:09 PM #41
great record so far. good luck in the future. I hope it will continue to be profitable for you
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03-08-10 08:20 PM #42
anything that fits your formula?? today or tomorrow??
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03-08-10 09:01 PM #43
I had Capitals today who lost, (you can see why I am betting such low amounts on these money lines). Originally Posted by mrginandtonic
It looks like I will place my B bet tomorrow with Anaheim.
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03-09-10 12:14 AM #44
nice job, will keep posted will this thread
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03-09-10 11:26 AM #45
I picked the wrong day and team to come back with, hopefully I can get it tonight with Anaheim.
I was debating between them and the Flyers, thoughts on those two games?
Puck line:
10- 6; +$89.00
ANAHEIM DUCKS (-1.5) (+150) risking $10
Money line:
10 - 4 overall
10 - 0 as chase (PENDING) ; +$50
ANAHEIM DUCKS (-200); [b] bet; risking $37 to win $18.50
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03-10-10 11:14 AM #46
Getting put to the test today as I have not gone to a C bet in this experiment.
If I lose this chase bet then it is back to the drawing board there, and I will include some more variables when selecting games.
Remember I am a hockey novice and just learning how to cap hockey.
On that note, can anyone tell me the most important statistic to look at when capping hockey? (Goals, Shots, Save %, etc)
Puck line:
10- 7; +$79.00
WASHINGTON CAPITALS (-1.5) (+100) risking $10
Money line:
10 - 5 overall
10 - 0 as chase (PENDING) ; +$50
WASHINGTON CAPITALS (-280); [C] bet; risking $155.40 to win $55.50
Including more variables would of had me take the Flyers last night who won, and Buffalo for tonight.
Win or lose tonight I have learned something and will use that going forward.
Last edited by million2one; 03-10-10 at 11:57 AM.
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03-10-10 08:39 PM #47
Phew, made it through my first 'C' bet, I don't think I would like to do that again, so either way it is time to update my methods and tweek my system. I will make improvements to strengthen my picks (IMO) and see what I can do for the rest of the year.
Either way I am learning a good deal by keeping this thread and hopefully my methods will only continue to grow.
Puck line:
10- 8; +$69.00
Money line:
11 - 5 overall
11 - 0 as chase ; +$55
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03-11-10 10:05 AM #48
I have tweeked how I am picking games so technically I could consider this as a separate record as my variables have changed.
I will continue on though in the manner I have been, and hopefully learn better how to manage my money in the future.
Puck line:
10- 8; +$69.00
MONTREAL CANADIANS (-1.5) (+130) risking $10
Money line:
11 - 5 overall
11 - 0 as chase ; +$55
MONTREAL CANADIANS (-240) ; [A] bet ; to win $5
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03-11-10 11:42 AM #49
Just curious, does your system only picks out one game per day?? Is your system based on the "most" favorite in terms of odds as your pick?
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03-11-10 06:12 PM #50
Yes one play a day, I will cap every game and then take only the highest "chance" of winning per day, so only one play a day for now, and sometimes there are no plays on a day. Originally Posted by mrginandtonic
I am working on finding a value system where I could capitalize on the value in the money lines as well, but haven't posted.
Alot of the times these plays will be the big favorite or one of the big favorites, but that is not the criteria I am using to pick these games, that would be too subjective at times about who the biggest favorite would be.
I am capping strictly numbers and my system is very objective and will always have a clearly defined play.
Let's get 'em
Last edited by million2one; 03-11-10 at 06:17 PM.
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03-12-10 12:05 PM #51
Thanks for the info. Any play today??
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03-12-10 12:42 PM #52
Unfortunately I will be taking the Caps again as a huge favorite, hopefully they can at least cover the -1.5 as I have been getting bleed to death on these puck lines. I was getting so lucky with them early on and have now lost 4 or 5 in a row on the puck line, as long as the chase bets keep winning and I am on the plus side with the puck line bets, I am happy.
Puck line:
10- 9; +$59.00
WASHINGTON CAPITALS(-1.5) (-120) risking $12
Money line:
12 - 5 overall
12 - 0 as chase ; +$60
WASHINGTON CAPITALS (-330) ; [A] bet ; to win $5
I will throw in these value plays to keep track of just the start of an experiment, I am not betting money on these value plays.
Value Play:
LA Kings (+100)
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03-13-10 11:55 AM #53
Very disappointed in the Caps haven't been quite as good since the Olympic break, maybe cause they are so far ahead in the standings they don't need to win every game. Good news is I won my first value bet and in the long run this may be the way to go.
Looking to get it right today with my chase bet, I feel very good about this one may even get the puck line win that I badly need.
Puck line:
10- 10; +$47.00
VANCOUVER CANUCKS(-1.5) (+170) risking $10
Money line:
12 - 6 overall
12 - 0 as chase ; +$60
VANCOUVER CANUCKS (-175) ; [B] bet ; risking $37.63 to win $21.50
No value play for today.
Value Plays: 1 - 0 ; +100
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03-14-10 01:13 PM #54
Finally got my long awaited puck line win and some plus odds on my side.
Feeling very confident now going forward and only need to make it a few more weeks to have a perfect chase record.
More plays for today with some good odds, I haven't been playing many road teams, hopefully this will not be a future filter in my system.
Puck line:
11 - 10; +$64.00
PHOENIX COYOTES (-1.5) (+230) risking $10
Money line:
13 - 6 overall
13 - 0 as chase ; +$65
PHOENIX COYOTES (-130) ; [A] bet ; to win $5
Value Plays: 1 - 0 ; +100
ST. LOUIS BLUES (+110)
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03-15-10 01:33 PM #55
No plays for today
Puck line:
11 - 11; +$54.00
Money line:
14 - 6 overall
14 - 0 as chase ; +$70
Value Plays: 1 - 1 ; $0
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03-16-10 11:03 AM #56
Late play tonight that I will try to capitalize on, big juice on this one so hopefully they will come through with a puck line win.
Puck line:
11 - 11; +$54.00
VANCOUVER CANUCKS (-1.5) (+100) risking $10
Money line:
14 - 6 overall
14 - 0 as chase ; +$70
VANCOUVER CANUCKS (-270) ; [A] bet ; to win $5
Value Plays: 1 - 1 ; $0
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03-18-10 12:03 PM #57
Taking another shot on this Vancouver team, at least the juice is not so high this time.
May have to rethink my Puck line strategy or money management as the -1.5 has not been hitting so well as of late.
Puck line:
11 - 12; +$44.00
VANCOUVER CANUCKS (-1.5) (+230) risking $10
Money line:
14 - 7 overall
14 - 0 as chase ; +$70
VANCOUVER CANUCKS (-140) ; [B] bet ; risking $25.90 to win $18.50
Value Plays: 1 - 1 ; $0
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03-19-10 10:35 AM #58
Keeping the streak alive, and still have only gone to a third game in the chase just once. The puck line plays have been in trouble and if they continue to lose I will just stop betting on the puck line and continue my money line chase. Some big juice in play today so lets hope I can get an easy win.
Puck line:
11 - 13; +$34.00
DETROIT RED WINGS (-1.5) (+120) risking $10
Money line:
15 - 7 overall
15 - 0 as chase ; +$75
DETROIT RED WINGS (-250) ; [A] bet ; to win $5
Value Plays: 1 - 1 ; $0
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03-20-10 12:23 PM #59
Been getting killed playing these big chalks, maybe that should be a filter for me either that or don't take road teams.
Another B bet today lets see if I can keep the streak alive with a small favorite, I will stop playing the puck lines very shortly and not let the money I made dip below zero, so two more shots for me to get a puck line win, hopefully it will be today.
Puck line:
11 - 14; +$24.00
DALLAS STARS (-1.5) (+260) risking $10
Money line:
15 - 8 overall
15 - 0 as chase ; +$75
DALLAS STARS (-120) ; [B] bet ; risking $21 to win $17.50
Value Plays: 1 - 1 ; $0
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03-21-10 10:30 AM #60
No plays for today, but I see a nice big play coming for tomorrow.
The chase system is working great so far with just one 'C' bet through the 16 wins.
The puck line has been suffering though, so it is time for me to adjust my money management, and begin to play the money lines for larger amounts of money. This has been a great learning experience so far.
Puck line:
11 - 15; +$14.00
Money line:
16 - 8 overall
16 - 0 as chase ; +$80
Value Plays: 1 - 1 ; $0
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03-21-10 01:46 PM #61
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03-22-10 03:22 PM #62
This will be my last puck line play if it loses, I am 1 - 10 overall in my last 11 puck line plays, it's crazy how I got so lucky early on and now have crashed almost back to zero. I have to do some more research about these puck lines or maybe play the money line for a larger amount then the puck line. Lets keep it rolling with a big play today.
Puck line:
11 - 15; +$14.00
MONTREAL CANADIANS (-1.5) (+220) risking $10
Money line:
16 - 8 overall
16 - 0 as chase ; +$80
MONTREAL CANADIANS (-140) ; [A] bet ; to win $5
Value Plays: 1 - 1 ; $0
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03-23-10 12:06 PM #63
Another 'B' bet for my system, good news is I won my last three 'B' bets and have only gone to a 'C' bet once, now that I jinxed myself I am sure I will lose tonight but I must march on. The other bit of good news is I didn't lose much in juice last night and today I am playing a team with + odds, so really hoping for the win. Also I am done playing the -1.5 puck line as it has officially fallen on its face.
Puck line:
11 - 16; +$4.00 FINAL COUNT
Money line:
16 - 9 overall
16 - 0 as chase ; +$80
MINNESOTA WILD (+115) ; [b] bet ; risking $10.43 to win $12
Value Plays: 1 - 1 ; $0
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03-24-10 05:32 PM #64
Well I called it (read above post) I knew another 'C' bet was coming. So I have a big time play coming tonight and if that loses not sure how to progress as I will still have some money left, lets hope it doesn't come to that. And my play is on the big time match-up (personally I hate both teams, being a Flyers fan) but lets go Caps, the Caps did manage to cash my only other 'C' bet, so back to the well with them.
Puck line:
11 - 16; +$4.00 FINAL COUNT
Money line:
16 - 10 overall
16 - 0 as chase ; +$80
WASHINGTON CAPITALS(-210) ; [C] bet ; risking $36.60 to win $17.43
Value Plays: 1 - 1 ; $0
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03-25-10 06:03 PM #65
Still alive with the Caps coming through for me last night. A little late here, but I have a play for tonight.
Puck line:
11 - 16; +$4.00 FINAL COUNT
Money line:
17 - 10 overall
17 - 0 as chase ; +$85
BOSTON BRUINS (-200) ; [A] bet ; to win $5
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03-26-10 03:25 PM #66
Maybe time to retire this soon as I am getting killed with big juice, another crappy line for my play today, I really can't afford to lose this one.
Puck line:
11 - 16; +$4.00 FINAL COUNT
Money line:
17 - 11 overall
17 - 0 as chase ; +$85
DETROIT REDWINGS (-300) ; [B] bet ; risking $45 to win $15
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03-26-10 03:44 PM #67
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03-27-10 03:20 PM #68
Glad I got that win, I didn't want to chase a -300 in juice. So the chase record stands at 18 wins and 0 losses as a three game chase. Since the season is winding down I may just try to get over 20 wins as a chase and call it quits. Can't wait until next NHL season so I can bet a little bigger and work from the beginning of the year. I'll be doing a similar experiment with MLB if anyone is interested check me out there. Of course I haven't tried MLB capping yet, so I will again just be starting very small.
On to today's A bet:
Puck line:
11 - 16; +$4.00 FINAL COUNT
Money line:
18 - 11 overall
18 - 0 as chase ; +$90
BUFFALO SABERS (-170) ; [A] bet ;to win $5
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03-28-10 10:55 AM #69
Got my mojo back with an easy A bet win, my last two bets would have even covered the puck line, maybe I should have continued to track that just to see where it would end up. Another play for today, lets keep it rolling.
Puck line:
11 - 16; +$4.00 FINAL COUNT
Money line:
19 - 11 overall
19 - 0 as chase ; +$95
SAN JOSE SHARKS (-220) ; [A] bet ;to win $5
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03-29-10 03:48 PM #70
That's more like it, lets keep racking up those 'A' bet wins and see how far I can go.
Another play tonight with some reasonable juice this time, there may be something to this after all.
Puck line:
11 - 16; +$4.00 FINAL COUNT
Money line:
20- 11 overall
20- 0 as chase ; +$100
ATLANTA THRASHERS (-130) ; [A] bet ;to win $5
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