[Rich Boy]

NJ +158
I'm pretty confident this line will come down tomo so jump on it now. NJ is pretty solid on the road and edges Stl in home/road goal differential at +0.15 vs -0.04 and -0.02 vs -0.05 overall. Stl has been flaky of late and shouldn't be getting this much respect for a team only scoring 2.22 goals/game at home, good for 4th worst in the league. +145 for this game is what I expected.


Buf/Min OVER 5 -105
I was surprised when I checked the home/road goal totals and found an average of 5.53 for Buf and 5.19 for Min.
Add that to the large moneyline and the Sabres recently pulling goalies in 4-1 situations and this price is a steal. Fair price should be around -120 IMO.



Chi -0.5 in regulation +117
Chicago is one of the hottest teams in the NHL right now winning 7 straight and have a strong home record of 18-5-1. Nashville is pretty weak on the road and haven't been playing well of late. The home/road goal differentials for these teams is quite large with Chicago at +1.32 goals/game and Nash at -1.00. Really surprised to get plus money on this game for at least a pick em IMO, perhaps books are just overvaluing Nashville at the moment?


Edm/Ari OVER 5.5 +113
These teams are averaging 5.64 goals per game (home/road and overall) good for ~50% OVER 5.5 per poisson. Passes the visual test also, Arizona averages 6.23 goals/game at home, highest in the NHL. Getting this line at plus money is a strong play, would have priced this at +105ish due to Edmonton's weak road offense (1.86 goals/game, 2nd worst in NHL).




YTD: 28-14 (66%), +16.84 units

[Rich Boy]

Col +116

I liked Col when this line opened at +102 but had a feeling it would move in TB's favor. +116 is a great price for this play. I feel like these teams are evenly matched and TB shouldn't be favored by this much on the road at the end of a long trip. Col had been playing well up until that beatdown at Chicago, expect them to come out hard tonight at home.