[Stocks]

I've finally finished my NHL model so now I guess it's time to see what it can do. I'll post my expected win% for each game instead of just the picks so if the line moves anyone following can redo the edge for what ever lines they're getting.

For this test I will also be using half Kelly with a starting bankroll of $500.

I've never used Kelly before but now that this model gives me a win% and edge I figure I would give it a try.

Starting Bankroll $500

Current Bankroll $500

Record 0-0

[grey area]

GL hope you have a great start

[Stocks]

Tampa Bay NY Rangers	52.30% 47.70%	-109 +109	+101 -111	49.5% 52.61%	+2.80% -4.91%	$6	$6.21
Montreal Colorado	49.14% 50.86%	+104 -104	-109 +101	52.15% 49.75%	-3.01% +1.11%	$2	$2.02
Boston Anaheim	48.17% 51.83%	+107 -107	+111 -121	47.39% 54.75%	+0.78% -2.92%	$2	$2.22
Florida Columbus	62.84% 37.16%	-169 +169	+115 -125	46.51% 55.56%	+16.33% -18.40%	$47	$54.05
Arizona Edmonton	47.30% 52.70%	+111 -111	-104 -106	50.98% 51.46%	-3.68% +1.24%	$3	$2.83

[Stocks]

The table above is todays games and picks.

1st column Game (Team in green is a pick)

2nd column is my win%

3rd column my line

4th column books line (I bet at 5Dimes)

5th column books win%

6th column is the edge

7th column risk amount

8th column win amount

[Stocks]

Shitty day yesterday but I figured that would happen. After 2 weeks of tracking this and it being off the charts good of course right when I start betting it starts losing.

Bold Green Teams are my Bets

Red means questionable injuries

2nd Column my win%

3rd column book win%

4th column Edge

5th Column risk amount

Ottawa NY Islanders	42.30% 57.70%	37.74% 63.64%	+4.56% -5.94%	$5.42
Vancouver Washington	53.50% 46.50%	49.50% 52.83%	+4.00% -6.33%	$7.77
Dallas Toronto	37.74% 62.26%	46.95% 55.16%	-9.21% +7.10%	$17.85
Tampa Bay Buffalo	66.40% 33.60%	65.75% 36.10%	+0.65% -2.50%	$2.44
Philadelphia San Jose	45.10% 54.90%	37.45% 64.16%	+7.65% -9.26%	$9.04
New Jersey Pittsburgh	31.80% 68.20%	35.09% 66.67%	-3.29% +1.53%	$0.00
Nashville Carolina	56.40% 43.60%	56.90% 45.05%	-0.05% -1.45%	$0.00
Florida Detroit	34.60% 65.40%	35.09% 66.67%	-0.49% -1.27%	$0.00
Arizona Calgary	34.00% 66.00%	40.65% 60.94%	-6.65% +5.06%	$16.09
Boston Los Angeles	41.60% 58.40%	40.49% 61.09%	+1.11% -2.69%	$1.47

[Stocks]

Starting Bankroll $500
Current Bankroll $$475
Profit -$25

Much better day yesterday. I ended up betting Pittsburgh late after Crosby was confirmed. It's hard to update all the especially late or picks from just before game time. If the line moves enough to give me any edge I will bet it so my win% are there so if your following just make sure any late line moves are not from injuries or something.

Games	My win%	Book win%	Edge%	Risk
Montreal Minnesota	51.1% 48.9%	43.5% 58.3%	+7.6% -9.4%	$13
Edmonton Winnipeg	34.1% 65.9%	37.0% 64.9%	-2.90% +1.00%	$4
St Louis Chicago	36.8% 63.2%	42.4% 59.4%	-5.6% +3.8%	$13
Philadelphia Anaheim	35.9% 64.1%	33.4% 65.7%	+2.46% -1.55%	$3

[Stocks]

2-2 yesterday I thin it was about break even. I'm short on time so just my win% and my bet amount.

Vancouver 41.8%
Pittsburgh 58.2% $2

New Jersey 30.1%
Toronto 69.9% $20

Dallas 35.1%
Detroit 64.9% $2

Columbus 32.4%
Florida 67.6% $26

Colorado 36.1%
Calgary 63.9% $13

Boston 48.6% $3
San Jose 51.4%

Washington 48.6%
Carolina 51.4% $4

NY Islanders 48.7%
Ottawa 51.3% $3

Buffalo 31.4% $8
Tampa 68.6%

St Louis 38.5%
Nashville 61.5% $4

Los Angeles 55.3% $0
Arizona 44.7%

[Stocks]

Not a very good day yesterday although Buffalo should have been a no bet. I didn't realize it was a home and home so when I adjusted it today for that it came out to no edge.

Anaheim 44.70% $0
Minnesota 55.30%

Montreal 29.4%
Chicago 70.60% $22

Colorado 45.70% $5
Winnipeg 54.30%

[Stocks]

Ottawa 42.9% $8
Pittsburgh 57.1%

Philadelphia 32.2%
Los Angeles 67.8%

NY Rangers 44.0%
Detroit 56.0%

Buffalo 41.3% $6
Florida 58.7%

Chicago 55.0% $19
Nashville 45.0%

Boston 49.7%
Arizona 50.3% $12

St Louis 43.9%
NY Islanders 56.1% $10

Vancouver 52%
Toronto 48%

Columbus 25.7%
Tampa Bay 74.3% $19

Washington 54.2% $9
New Jersey 45.8%

Montreal 50.7% $10
Dallas 49.3%

San Jose 35.0%
Calgary 65.0% $42

[Stocks]

Another crappy day yesterday. hopefully I'm just been on the wrong side of variance this week.

Anaheim 50%
Winnipeg 50%

Vancouver 53.8%
Ottawa 46.2% $6

Detroit 46.2%
Carolina 53.8% $21

San Jose 51.4%
Edmonton 48.6% $15

[Stocks]

Finally a winning day 2-1 yesterday with 2 dog wins.

Pittsburgh 48.2%
NY Rangers 51.8%

Florida 43.7% $13
St Louis 56.3%

New Jersey 43.1%
Carolina 56.9% $17