1. #1
    livan33
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    NHL Model - 2014

    I developed an NHL model last year and had some success during the playoffs. Used it at the start of this season and got beat up pretty badly. Have made some changes and am going to give it a try now that we have half a season of data to go on. The majority of my picks are going to be on underdogs, so it won't be for everyone.

    January 6th:

    Florida +155
    Calgary +174

    Good luck all!

  2. #2
    livan33
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    A little disappointed as if the Islanders had dropped another 4 cents they would have met my criteria, however, can't complain about a profitable night.

    Record: 1-1 +0.74 Units

    January 7th:

    Winnipeg -111
    Nashville +127
    Edmonton +155
    Vancouver +103

    There's a chance I might add one or two later on...

  3. #3
    livan33
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    That's most likely it for my card. My model has value on Minnesota at +200, but I don't think I can pull the trigger when their top 2 forwards are out. I just don't know how much they are worth so I will probably pass. Was also hoping the New Jersey line would continue to come down, but it looks like it is going the other way now.

    Good luck all.

  4. #4
    jontebond
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    Quote Originally Posted by livan33 View Post
    That's most likely it for my card. My model has value on Minnesota at +200, but I don't think I can pull the trigger when their top 2 forwards are out. I just don't know how much they are worth so I will probably pass. Was also hoping the New Jersey line would continue to come down, but it looks like it is going the other way now.

    Good luck all.
    Yeah and also note that their 3rd goalie is in net, Darcy Kuemper

  5. #5
    livan33
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    Also a good point, thanks Jontebond. Good luck to you tonight!

  6. #6
    jontebond
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    Interested to hear more about how you developed this model.
    Is it mainly based on Statistics?

  7. #7
    livan33
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    Disappointing night, especially when my last lean would have hit as a +200. Pretty brutal loss on Vancouver, up 2 with just over 1 minute left. Oh well.

    January 7th: 1-3 -1.84 Units
    Record: 2-4 -1.10 Units

  8. #8
    livan33
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    Quote Originally Posted by jontebond View Post
    Interested to hear more about how you developed this model.
    Is it mainly based on Statistics?
    Yes, I use Fenwick and PDO to calculate an expected number of goals scored for each team. I then use the Poisson Distribution to calculate the probability of each team scoring 0 goals, 1 goal, 2 goals, 3 goals etc. The Poisson Distribution only needs the mean in order to calculate these probabilities, so I used the expected number of goals as the mean. Once I have the probability of each team scoring each number of goals I can calculate the probability of each team winning the game. I then convert this to a betting line and compare to the actual line offered. I'm happy to provide more details if you are interested.

    Each time I've started over with this model I've found one or two areas that I was missing. So it is still improving and is still a work in progress. I hope if I can iron out all the kinks it is a model that can eventually generate profit in the longterm.

  9. #9
    livan33
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    January 8th:
    NY Rangers +172

    January 9th:
    Carolina -130
    Nashville +131
    Calgary +165

  10. #10
    bruceBRUCEbruce
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    Interesting system, good luck, would love to see the process behind the ny rangers pick tonight.

  11. #11
    livan33
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceBRUCEbruce View Post
    Interesting system, good luck, would love to see the process behind the ny rangers pick tonight.
    My model had the line closer to -150, so I felt there was value on New York at +172. It was more of a play on the Rangers rather than a fade of Chicago. Chicago is a great team, Fenwick supports that. However, Fenwick percentages suggest that the Rangers are better than their current record indicates. Fenwick has them as the 8th best team in the league and Fenwick Close has them as 11th. Looking at their road splits, they have a 5.49% shooting percentage contributing to a 0.97 PDO. This is extremely unlucky and is unsustainably low. This suggests that they have been playing better on the road than their record would indicate. These were some of the main factors that contributed to my line being around -150 and hence the value I felt was on New York.

    January 8th: 1-0 +1.72 Units

    Record: 3-4 +0.62 Units

  12. #12
    livan33
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    Posted above:

    January 9th:
    Carolina -130
    Nashville +131
    Calgary +165

    Added:

    January 10th:

    NY Rangers -147
    NY Islanders +151
    Edmonton +162
    Vancouver +103

  13. #13
    bruceBRUCEbruce
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    nice hit on the rags the other evening

  14. #14
    livan33
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    Read Carolina perfectly, might have deserved a better fate in Nashville and got crushed in Calgary.

    January 9th: 1-2 -1 Units
    Record: 4-6 -0.38 Units

  15. #15
    livan33
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceBRUCEbruce View Post
    nice hit on the rags the other evening
    Thanks Bruce, appreciate it!

  16. #16
    livan33
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    Quote Originally Posted by livan33 View Post
    Posted above:

    January 9th:
    Carolina -130
    Nashville +131
    Calgary +165

    Added:

    January 10th:

    NY Rangers -147
    NY Islanders +151
    Edmonton +162
    Vancouver +103
    Very nice to have a day when all the bounces go in your favour!

    January 10th: 4-0 +5.16 Units
    Record: 8-6 +4.78 Units

    January 11th:

    Calgary +165
    Minnesota -122
    Winnipeg -118
    Montreal +126
    Phoenix +114

    I know about the flu going around the Jets but I think this line is way too low with Columbus on the second night of a back-to-back no matter who plays.

    Good luck folks.

  17. #17
    livan33
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    Back down to Earth yesterday.

    January 11th: 1-4 -3.14 Units
    Record: 9-10 +1.64 Units

    January 12th:
    Buffalo +179
    NY Rangers -144
    Edmonton +241
    Detroit +174

  18. #18
    TheMLBKing
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    hope you lose your edmonton pick

  19. #19
    livan33
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    Thanks bud, appreciate the well wishes.

  20. #20
    livan33
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    January 12th: 2-2 +0.79 Units
    Record: 11-12 +2.43 Units

    January 13th:

    Calgary +160
    Winnipeg +108

  21. #21
    livan33
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    January 14th:

    NY Rangers -145
    New Jersey +151

    Will probably be more depending on how the lines move before tomorrow night.

  22. #22
    livan33
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    January 13th: 2-0 +2.68 Units
    Record: 13-12 +5.11 Units

    Still watching the lines, will likely be adding to today's card.

  23. #23
    livan33
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    Quote Originally Posted by livan33 View Post
    January 14th:

    NY Rangers -145
    New Jersey +151
    January 14th adding:

    Buffalo +133
    Washington +125
    Florida +102

  24. #24
    livan33
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    January 15th:

    Vancouver +156

  25. #25
    livan33
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    Think the capping was okay last night, just didn't get the results. All the losses were by 1 goal and both wins were by multiple goals. Suggests to me that it could have easily been a better night.

    January 14th: 2-3 -0.92 Units
    Record: 15-15 +4.19 Units

  26. #26
    livan33
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    Quote Originally Posted by livan33 View Post
    January 15th:

    Vancouver +156
    Still may add one more for tonight.

    January 16th:

    Florida +140
    Dallas +106
    New Jersey +138
    Phoenix -115

  27. #27
    livan33
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    Quote Originally Posted by livan33 View Post
    January 15th:


    Vancouver +156
    Well that was a disaster. Good thing all losses count the same!

    January 15th: 0-1 -1 Units
    Record: 15-16 +3.19 Units

  28. #28
    livan33
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    Quote Originally Posted by livan33 View Post
    January 16th:

    Florida +140
    Dallas +106
    New Jersey +138
    Phoenix -115
    Adding: Minnesota -150

  29. #29
    livan33
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    January 16th: 2-3 -1 Unit
    Record: 17-19 +2.19 Units

  30. #30
    ddude
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    yeah pretty rough month for me too
    but you made money, no matter how much, you can't argue against that

  31. #31
    livan33
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    January 18th:

    Buffalo +107
    St. Louis -144
    Nashville -120
    Calgary +187

  32. #32
    livan33
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    Quote Originally Posted by ddude View Post
    yeah pretty rough month for me too
    but you made money, no matter how much, you can't argue against that
    Thanks ddude, definitely not complaining. Hope things turn around for you!

  33. #33
    livan33
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    Adding:

    Winnipeg -147

  34. #34
    cotes17
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    Hey livan33, i sent you a personal message about your model, would be awesome if you could help me out

    Nice OT win for you today and GL tonight

  35. #35
    livan33
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    Hey Cotes, I got your message and am looking forward to chatting but won't have a chance to give you a proper response until tomorrow. Appreciate the interest and it's good to see others thinking with the same mindset. Looking forward to discussing!

    Brutal day yesterday...
    January 18th: 1-4 -3.64 Units
    Record: 18-23 -1.45 Units

    January 19th:

    Washington +136

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