[UM1CEV1C]

Hi guys,

I've been looking a long time for place to express myself by writing about hockey. I've been placing bets for years, but never taking it that seriously. This year I started to play only singles to the game we all love, hockey. I am basically only betting on NHL (90%) and Finnish Hockey League. Sometimes I like to write a bit deeper analysis what is the reason behind my picks, sometimes I just put the pick out there without explaining it further.

I will be posting my own opinions & picks here daily. Hopefully. I do have actual job as well so at this point this is just a fun hobby for me. To be honest, I am not even completely sure how all the kelly's dividers work but I am using the simplest way (mathematically challenged ). For me, 1 unit = 10€ (Around 13.5 USD). I actually already might said something I have no clue but I do know something about hockey, and I will use that for my advantage. I strongly believe I have some sort of an edge especially when it comes to Finnish Hockey League. Since this is my first time actual keeping any data, I don't have anything to show but hopefully at the end of the season we're still making money. 90% of my bets will go through pinnacle, but I do use some european bookmakers as well.

Bets so far :

Units = +43.14
Payback % = 104.49%
Average stake = 4.58 Units
Bets = 210


Finnish Hockey League, 07/12/2013 15:00 CET

TPS v Tappara
Pick : Tappara -1
Odds : 2.25 (+125)
Stake : 7

TPS is on the last place on the league with only 26 points after 30 GP. Away team Tappara will go into tomorrows match-up holding the 2nd position with 57 points. Even it's away game, I don't give the home advantage much credit on this one. TPS just lost their top guy to the KHL (he was leading the league in points) and it seems the management is trying to save (financially) whatever there is left to save for the season and starting to build and prepare things for next season already. Tomorrow is also the first game they play without their top guy.

TPS has lost 9 out of their last 10 games, when Tappara comes with 5 wins, and 4 losses during 10 game stretch. TPS lost against one of the worst teams in the league, when Tappara suffered tight losses against the premium teams. Tappara's goaltender is also most likely top 3 in the league, and I'm estimating he will get yet another start tomorrow.

NHL 06/12/2013 01:00 CET

Carolina Hurricanes v San Jose Sharks
Pick : o5.5
Odds : 2.13 (+113)
Stake : 8

It actually amazes me a bit that Sharks didn't score more than 1 goal against the Pens last night. After the scoring opened up going into the 2nd period, it felt Sharks was shocked a bit by the quick goals from Pens. They definitely had some really good scoring opportunities several times during the match , but they actually ran out of luck as well on those spots. Not sure, but I'd say Sharks will give Niemi a day off tonight, and he has been awesome during the season. Not an easy game for him last night, would definitely give him a night off against Carolina.

Those odds actually amazes me a bit since for example Sharks last 4 games has ended with 6,6,7 and 9 goals. Carolina's last 5 games : 7,5,5,7 and 7 goals. We also know what kind of an fire power the Sharks can bring on the table so I am really confident regarding this bet.


Carolina Hurricanes v San Jose Sharks
Pick : SJS o3.5
Odds : 2.67 (+167)
Stake : 3


Columbus Blue Jackets v Minnesota Wild
Pick : Minnesota ML
Odds : 1.90 (-111)
Stake : 5


If you have anything to ask, please do. Also please note that English isn't my first language so there might be some weird sentences here and there. I'll do my best.

[bdc30]

awesome, really look forward to following your finnish hockey league picks. I mainly bet just for fun with small units so always like to add action on stuff like that. Best of luck, and thanks for taking the time to write it up.

[UM1CEV1C]

awesome, really look forward to following your finnish hockey league picks. I mainly bet just for fun with small units so always like to add action on stuff like that. Best of luck, and thanks for taking the time to write it up.

Thanks! It's a really low-scoring league so you will see a lot of under 4.5 & 5 bets coming The standard line on that league (pinnacle) is usually o/u4.5 so that tells you something as well.

Yesterday's biggest bet SJS@CAR o5.5 was nicely a winner with the final score of 5-3 for Carolina. I had the SJS o3.5 which was a bit disappointment.

Today we have a lot of o/u bets, I am just going to list them, they seem to be pretty no-brainer picks. At least for me. I actually also took some more Tappara for Finnish Hockey League today. Maybe a bit too much already but we'll see.

NHL 07/12/2013

Ottawa Senators v Toronto Maple leafs
Pick : o5.5
Odds : 1.97 (-103.09)
Stake : 8

This is my "bet of the day" if you count out the team Tappara to crush TPS in Finnish league today.
Craig Anderson will get the start for Ottawa tonight. Not sure what happened to him but he is 7-8-2 this season with horrible save % of .897 and 3.42 GAA. Seeing stats like on on goaltender who was phenomenal on last season is a bit weird. But, we'll take that and we are happy to back to o5.5 here. Saturday game in Ottawa, and a most likely it's going to be coast to coast game. When these teams last met, we saw total 9 goals, and lately both teams have been involved in somewhat high scoring fixtures. I do feel confident about this bet and therefore it's the biggest stake for me today on NHL.

NHL 07/12/2013

Edmonton Oilers v Calgary Flames
Pick : o5.5
Odds : 1.86 (-116.28)
Stake : 5

Reto Berra against Devan Dubnyk? Ok, not confirmed but I'd take that. As well with these two teams, they have been involved with heavy scoring on their past games. Edmonton crushed Colorado couple nights back and that gives you some sort of an idea what the youngsters in Edmonton are capable of. Although it's not always that pretty. The young-guns have proven themselves what they can bring into the table when they feel like it. The shitty defence sometimes (and bad goalies) draws them back but I am confident we're going to see some scoring tonight. Every time Edmonton is playing, I kinda feel confident of backing the o5.5 line.

And rest of the bets :

Finnish Hockey League 07/12/2013 15:00 CET

Kärpät - Ässät
Pick : u5
Odds : 2.13 (+113)
Stake : 5

TPS - Tappara
Pick : Tappara -0.5
Odds : 1.81 (-123.46)
Stake : 10

NHL 07/12/2013

Dallas Stars - Philadelphia Flyers
Pick : ML 2
Odds : 2.16 (+116)
Stake : 4

Boston Bruins - Pittsburgh Penguins
Pick : o5
Odds : 1.8 (-125)
Stake : 3

St.Louis Blues - Anaheim Ducks
Pick : o5.5
Odds : 2.11 (+111)
Stake : 5

[UM1CEV1C]

Damn, can't write much but I'll just post todays picks and units and clean the formatting tomorrow morning.


Minnesota +0.5 | 7 Units
Boston v Toronto o5 | 8 Units
Chicago v Florida o5.5 | 5 Units

[UM1CEV1C]

Alrighty. Yesterday was a busy day and I only had my iPad to use so I didn't want to waste time writing a long post with it. It sucks btw

Pretty good day, and decent start for the thread. Yesterday 3/3, and quite easily if I may say. Tappara was a huge let-down few days ago and lost a lot of units there. I don't want to go into details but mostly due to refs Tappara got robbed... Also they didn't start with the 1st goaltender as I predicted. Bad luck there.

Let's see how we did during the weekend :

Picks : 14
Won : 7
Push : 1
Lost : 6

Since almost every "major" bet won, the result was ok. I had some good selection to invest my units correctly and this is a good start to continue.

Invested : 83 Units
Won : 92.02 Units
Total = +9.02 Units

I'll write later on more about today's picks.

[ardacet8]

keep up, look like good pick even i dont have any idea o european hockey (except khl which is just a bit) although i live in europe. They say european hockey is less of unexpected results, you think the same?

[UM1CEV1C]

keep up, look like good pick even i dont have any idea o european hockey (except khl which is just a bit) although i live in europe. They say european hockey is less of unexpected results, you think the same?

Not sure about the answer to that question. I do find it sometimes hard to pick the winners as well, but that's why I mostly concentrate o/u picks on Finnish hockey. I don't play any other european leagues. I'd say once you get familiar with the patterns and the overall image of the league, you slowly start making good decisions and smart bets. Each league can be described very shortly to give at least some sort of a view what kind of a structure the league holds. Finnish Hockey League is extremely low scoring league, and I've trapped myself few times betting those o4.5 & 5.5 lines as well.

[UM1CEV1C]

Seems like a really boring day to bet. There was few picks I was interested, but mostly today will be slow. I'll have one pick (so far) for Finnish Hockey league as well. I think it might be hard to find the same bet since I don't recall seeing this bet-type on many bookmakers out there. Not even the European ones.


Finnish Hockey League - 10/12/2013 17:30 CET

Kärpät v Lukko
Pick : Lukko under 1.5 goals (regulation)
Odds : 2.16 (+116)
Stake : 3 Units

Both teams have good last 2 games. Well.. Kärpät has a bit more than 2 good games this season. To be honest, I've lost count already but they have lost something like 2-3 games for the past 20 games? Doesn't matter the exact statistic on this one, Kärpät is the best team in the league by far. They have scored the most (103 goals in 30 games) and gave the least (52 goals). More than likely Kärpät will start tomorrow with Jussi Rynnäs between the posts. He came back to Finland from trip to US and oh boy... He has been amazing. He leads the goalies in basically every category and it literally seems the pucks can't go past him. 20 games played, save % of 94.36 and 1.38 GAA. It's Kärpät home game, and they are really good at home. Raksila, their home-arena is really though place for any team. I will keep the units on this pick fairly small since if Rynnäs isn't the starting goaltender, the bet looses some value. Lukko has been pretty good lately as well, but I am confident team Kärpät will continue where they left 2 days ago, winning 1-0 at home.

I'll post 1-2 NHL picks and maybe one more from Finland later this evening. Time for lunch

EDIT :

Ok, only 2 picks for NHL tonight.

NHL - 09/12/2013


Vancouver Canucks v Carolina Hurricanes
Pick : o5.5
Odds : 2.26 (+126)
Stake : 5

This pick will be (well, a bit more than usually) based on my gut feeling and some statistic to back it up Last time these two teams met, I had quite a good size bet on o5.5 as well. 3 minutes into 2nd period and we already saw 5 goals. Needless to say, game of course ended 3-2 which was a miracle. When Vancouver has found themselves on a 4 games winning streak, Carolina has done the same with 3 W's as well. The difference is that Vancouver seems to be struggling a bit with scoring, but Carolina has scored nice 4,5 and 5 goals on their past 3 games. To be honest, I don't follow all the teams as closely, and Vancouver & Carolina definitely isn't my "favourites". And when I say favourites, I mean that usually it's hard to find value when those 2 teams play. But, I'll go with my gut today again, and I do actually feel pretty good about this pick. Since these teams have only played 1 per season against each other, I wouldn't give too much credit for those results. Although, if you want to do so, the positive thing is that in the past 10 years, most of the games between thes teams has been o5.5 goals.


Anaheim Ducks v New York Islanders
Pick : Anaheim -1.5
Odds : 2.20 (+126)
Stake : 8

The Isle's are in a dark and cold place at the moment. It's not called Finland but it's still pretty cold and dark... We'll they most likely aren't as bad team as the last 10 games would indicate. Their schedule has been most likely one of the hardest in the league. Kings, Blues, Pens, Caps, Red Wings, Pens again...... But Isle's are struggling at the moment and that's a place where I want to strike. Ducks is returning home again after having amazing road trip, getting W's against Blackhawks & Blues. If you watch NHL, you know that it isn't easy to get wins against those two teams at the moment. Impressive 5-2 W over the Blues will definitely give some good spirit for the Ducks to skate on the ice again on front of their fans.

I have a feeling that Islanders will going to get dominated by the Ducks tonight.

That's it for today, I doubt I find anything else to play from NHL today.

[UM1CEV1C]

Good morning,

It's going to be a big day. It wasn't planned but after researching the fixtures, I came by pretty good picks for tonight's NHL round.

Not going to write that much today (simply too much to write...) But there is one absolute favourite I am really confident today.

Finnish Hockey League 10/12/2013 17:30 CET

HIFK v KalPa
Pick : HIFK -1 (2-way)
Odds : 1.84 (-119.05)
Stake : 9

KalPa, that Finnish Islanders. They are in a lot of trouble at the moment. Due to huge injury list, KalPa's roster today isn't nowhere near their top roster. They are entering the game with record (last 10 games) 4-6, and are facing maybe the hottest (Ok, 1st place goes to Kärpät but 2nd at least!) team in the league at the moment. HIFK. HIFK's record from the past 10 games is 9-1 (They lost to Kärpät 1-3). These 2 teams actually met 3 days ago, and HIFK took the away win for final score of 1-6. That tell's you something about today's match-up already. HIFK's young goaltender Ville Husso has been one the biggest stars when we are entering the 2nd half of the season. Not sure if he is starting though, but I don't see any reason they would start with the number 2 goaltender. HIFK also has proven that those W's they have claimed doesn't give any room for guessing.

6-1, 5-1, 2-0, 6-4, 4-1, 4-1, 3-1, 4-2 and 4-3. As you can see, only once HIFK has won less than 2 goals during the 10 game stretch. So, I am confident placing today's 2nd largest bet in units to HIFK -1.


Blues v Ässät
Pick : u4.5
Odds : 1.99 (-101.01)
Stake : 4


Kärpät v Lukko
Pick : u5
Odds : 1.88 (-113.64)
Stake : 4


NHL 10/12/2013

San Jose Sharks v New York Islanders
Pick : o5.5
Odds : 1.89 (-112.36)
Stake : 10

My biggest pick for today. As I wrote yesterday how I think Ducks will feel returning home, I'd say Sharks have the same effect here. Their road trip was definitely a disappointment for them, coming back home with 0 points and 0-3 record. I watched 2 of those games (against Pens & Wild) and I was impressed. Sharks fore-checking is something you don't see every day on this league. And of course, needless to say that they have wide material, with Joe Pavelski 3rd line center? C'moon. It's back to back game for Islanders, which already mentioned are somewhere where it is really cold and dark. Now they need to face the Sharks who are returning home, and are prepared to turn the course of their loosing streak. I have a feeling Islanders will get another beating today. Sharks win (1X2) and Sharks -1.5 didn't give me enough odds (imo) to play, I decided to take the over 5.5 here since I think Sharks will score the MINIMUM of 4 goals today.



Columbus Blue Jackets v New Jersey Devils
Pick : u5
Odds : 1.85 (-117.65)
Stake : 3

Washington Capitals v Tampa Bay Lightning
Pick : o5.5
Odds : 2.12 (+112)
Stake : 5

Florida Panthers v Detroit Red Wings
Pick : Detroit ML
Odds : 1.90 (-111.11)
Stake : 5

Winnipeg Jets v St.Louis Blues
Pick : o5.5
Odds : 1.88 (-113.64)
Stake : 3


Edmonton Oilers v Carolina Hurricanes
Pick : o5.5
Odds : 2.05 (+105)
Stake : 3

*************
Bets so far = 228
Payback % = 105.28%
Units = +56.41
Average stake = 4.68 Units
*************

[bdc30]

Tailing you on the HIFK play, hope they're as good as you say lol

GL us, thanks for posting.

[UM1CEV1C]

Tailing you on the HIFK play, hope they're as good as you say lol

GL us, thanks for posting.

Yup GL!

3 more facts to back up the statistics

1. HIFK is the best team in the league Shorthanded
2. HIFK is the 2nd best team in the league on power-play
3. HIFK won last 2 this season when these teams met (6-1 & 2-1)

Should be good!

[UM1CEV1C]

HIFK... 2 cheap break-aways for the opponent and then they started to play on the 3rd period... HIFK ended up winning 4-3 OT after being down 0-3... Sigh. Another u4.5 was ruined by Blues, 3 goals in 3 minutes late into the 2nd period. Harsh day coming up.. Kärpät - Lukko u5 and Lukko u1.5 held. Kärpät won 3-1.

[bdc30]

sigh is right. that's about enough finnish league hockey for me. gl man

[ddude]

not looking shabby so far... can't speak for the finnish league though...