1. 11-13-13 05:44 PM #1
    Simon Gruber
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    Laughs worth a look tonight at + $

    Not a fan of the Wild. They're extremely top heavy on both offense and defense. Their second pairing of Ballard and Stoner are both injured although Stoner will play tonight on a bad leg. The Wild haven't beaten any team at home that has a winning record including OT/SO losses. Both teams have had 3 days off coming into tonight's match. Toronto is +130 tonight.
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  2. 11-13-13 05:46 PM #2
    aznbluff
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    Toronto is a bad NHL team though. Most teams in the East are

    Minnesota is a solid team. Top 10 in the league. On home ice. Deserving of their price tonight
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  3. 11-13-13 05:48 PM #3
    aznbluff
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    Ballard and Stoner are also both replacement level players, not their 2nd pair
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  4. 11-13-13 06:03 PM #4
    Blueshirtfaithf
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    how is Toronto a bad NHL team ?
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  5. 11-13-13 06:04 PM #5
    Simon Gruber
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    Taking a shot here with TO for 2.5 units @ +135 (Bookmaker)

    Bernier back in net tonight for Leafs versus Backstrom who has been awful this season.
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  6. 11-13-13 06:19 PM #6
    aznbluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blueshirtfaithf View Post
    how is Toronto a bad NHL team ?
    Terrible possession numbers.
    Fenwick close % close to the bottom of the league (2nd worst next to Buffalo), among teams like Edmonton, Buffalo, Columbus, Washington, etc
    Corsi stats (derivative of Fenwick stats, so not surprising) are also close to league worst, along with Edmonton, Buffalo, Calgary, etc

    This is the prime team to fade in the NHL right now, as they are extremely overrated.
    Last edited by aznbluff; 11-13-13 at 06:23 PM.
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  7. 11-13-13 06:22 PM #7
    aznbluff
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    Minnesota, on the other hand, is top 5 in Corsi % surrounded by teams like Chicago, LA, St. Louis, San Jose, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, New Jersey (surprise)
    They are 6th in Fenwick close % behind, again, Chicago, LA, St. Louis, San Jose, Pittsburgh

    This is essentially one of the best teams in the league vs one of the worst, with home ice, but the public isn't aware of it yet
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  8. 11-13-13 06:30 PM #8
    Simon Gruber
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    TO was last, and that's dead last in Corsi % last season, yet they still managed to finish 5th in conference and held a 4-1 lead in game 7 against Boston. If you're still grouping them with teams like Calgary, Edmonton, and Buffalo you need to see a shrink.
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  9. 11-13-13 06:41 PM #9
    aznbluff
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    They overachieved in a short season ya
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  10. 11-13-13 06:43 PM #10
    cmendo2005
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    Toronto isn't an awful team, and most east coast teams with any physicality play well against Minn.
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  11. 11-13-13 06:46 PM #11
    aznbluff
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    East teams struggle against the west in general. Mostly because western teams have embraced the importance of winning the Corsi battle
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  12. 11-13-13 07:09 PM #12
    Simon Gruber
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    Leafs getting crushed in this first period - thankfully still tied at 0-0 though. Franson and Kadri look noticeably bad. Hopefully Carlyle will wake this team up between periods. Backstrom took himself out, Harding now playing despite illness. I think I'd rather have a healthy Backstrom to contend with.
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  13. 11-13-13 07:41 PM #13
    rainman416
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    No idea what these %'s are that you're talking about.. Any tips for where I can learn more? Always interested in learning new statistical formula's/systems etc. Can't hurt right?
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  14. 11-13-13 09:41 PM #14
    Simon Gruber
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    Well...Looks like I got screwed by NHL reffing again. Kadri gets a 5 minute major/game misconduct penalty for a clean hit w/ about 10 minutes left to go in the game. Leafs spend 5 minutes shorthanded, are minus their best center for the game + OT. They kill the major but end up losing the game in a shootout. Thx NHL.

    Another great performance by Bernier though.
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  15. 11-13-13 09:55 PM #15
    aznbluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by rainman416 View Post
    No idea what these %'s are that you're talking about.. Any tips for where I can learn more? Always interested in learning new statistical formula's/systems etc. Can't hurt right?
    Fenwick close % is a measure of possession that has a higher correlation with predicting future wins than wins themselves.

    Corsi % is a measure of shots taken vs shots against first invented/tracked by a Buffalo assistant coach, Jim (?) Corsi. When used in conjunction with zone starts and qualcomp, you can get a good indication of the performance of individual players. It can also be used on a team level but is less useful than Fenwick%
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  16. 11-13-13 09:57 PM #16
    Mike Huntertz
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    Nice SO shot from Kessel,eh?
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  17. 11-13-13 10:02 PM #17
    mnwild11
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    all homer bias aside, that was not a clean hit by any means. A blatant elbow to the face
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  18. 11-13-13 11:42 PM #18
    matskoviche
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    Quote Originally Posted by aznbluff View Post
    Fenwick close % is a measure of possession that has a higher correlation with predicting future wins than wins themselves.

    Corsi % is a measure of shots taken vs shots against first invented/tracked by a Buffalo assistant coach, Jim (?) Corsi. When used in conjunction with zone starts and qualcomp, you can get a good indication of the performance of individual players. It can also be used on a team level but is less useful than Fenwick%
    do you have a source to somewhere where i can read more about this? Do you compute these statistics yourself or are they available somewhere?
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  19. 11-13-13 11:46 PM #19
    aznbluff
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    No just google fenwick % hockey, it should be common knowledge
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