In another thread we started talking about betting reverse line movements. It sparked my interest to look into it more, and I figured I would start a thread where I track reverse line movements and then bet using the line movement as a requirement. The basis will be
1. The betting action must be at least 60% on one side. This must be confirmed from 4 sources all in agreement.
2. The line movement must be at least 5 points at all 4 sources, but two sources must be at least 8.
3. Injury and other announcements which move the lines will make that game a no-play.
I will keep 2 records, one in which satisfies the above criteria and one which includes my personal handicapping. For full disclosure, I will actually be throwing down my hard money on my plays, but the plays based only on the above criteria will just be for tracking purposes. I will include the price I actually get to bet the line (if I used more books I could probably get better lines, but I will put what I actually bet).
Just for clarity
Method A: Only the above to make the call
Method B: The above will be taken into account, but I will include some of my own handicapping.
Oct. 3rd:
Sides:
Panthers at Stars
Percentages of bets on the Panthers: 32% / 40% / 32% / 26%
Opening line of the Panthers: +152 / +145 / +145 / +146
Current line of the Panthers: +143 / +135 / +130 / +138
Method A and B: Bet $100 at +135 on the Panthers
Totals
Blues at Preds
Percentages of Bets on the Over: 34% / 33% / 35% / 36%
Opening line of the Over: 5 (-110) / 5 (-110) / 5 (-105) / 5 (-105)
Current line of the Over: 5 (-120) / 5 (-120) / 5(-118) / 5 (-116)
Method A and B: Bet $115 at -115 on the Over 5.
All I see for today. Good Luck all.