This reasoning behind this two choices should be fairly straightforward here. Luongo has been great these past two games and Detroit has been pathetic this past...well almost this whole season. How Detroit can be the favourite in this game boggles my mind.
Luongo's greatness and Vancouver's lack of scoring will more than offset Detroit's scoring ability and lack of goaltending ability so I expect this game to be low scoring and tight. Luongo will probably give up one or two goals while Vancouver will probably get no more than 3, so under seems like a pretty safe bet to me.
The night also features a couple other interesting matchups:
Phi @ Was and Col @ Edm
Edmonton has been rock solid at home this year. But Colorado has been rock solid everywhere this year and Anderson is coming off a game where he was spectacular against Detroit. Its somewhat hard for me to pick an outright winner on this game but given Colorado's return of 2.15 I figured its a good bet offset with the one below.
The Phi/Was game i expect to be pretty close. Philly won by one goal at home against Washington earlier this year and I can see the same thing happening in favour of Washington. But given the fairly poor return on Washington tonight I am going to avoid the game and play the Home team spread -1.5 @ 2.40 return.
Washington will likely help me out with this bet, and Vancouver will likely do the same. The wild card is is the Col/Edm game which I have covered by betting on Colorado. If Col wins big I likely lose on this one but if they lose I likely win this bet and split the difference either way.
Of course all 4 of these bets could go down the toilet if Detroit wakes up and wins 5-2 but I don't see that as a very likely outcome given Detroit's recent play, their ability to fall asleep in the 3rd period and give up late leads and Luongo's newly found hot streak.
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