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NHL 2009-10 RLM Plays
I will be keeping track of all reverse line movement games in the NHL for the season. I will be using 3 different sites for number of bets and line movement. Requirements are a 10 cent move, 2500 bets, and 60% on one side.
Things may be very slow to start the season.
10/01/09
No Plays
Do you remember its record for previous seasons? If I recall correctly, RLM was working GREAT in hockey..
I didn't keep a record last year but I know it was +$$$.
thanks hoff. i will check back regularly
Yeah it works well for the NHL. Your win percentage may hover at or below .500 but almost all of your bets will be on dogs so it puts u nicely in the plus.
THANKS for doing this ! Ill be playing
Yo...... Sawyer - you get around huh - good stuff...........
Its the American slug head Turk from the Den who can barely speak a lick of the tongue if you recall
Hoff............
I was thinking of this myself on the lazy tip
but only somewhat different
70% or more of the public I am gauging to fade
Mainly I get a consensus view through sportsbookspy.com
2000 bets
What do you think.........
You might be hard pressed to get 2000 bets on some of the games. You'll probably hit a few big underdogs. GL.Originally Posted by Earl's Liver
10/03/09
NY Islanders +130 loss
Phoenix +125 win
Last edited by The HOFF; 10-04-09 at 04:17 AM.
Could easily have been 2-0 yesterday.
Was this syetsm posted last year or any prior eyars? I tried searching under your name and didn't come up with anything.
Could easily have been 2-0 yesterday.
Was this system posted last year or any prior years? I tried searching under your name and didn't come up with anything.
No, I didn't keep a running total last year. RLM has done well in NHL most years though.
NHL RLM 09-10 (1-1) 50% +0.25
10/05/09
Columbus +135 win
Last edited by The HOFF; 10-06-09 at 02:07 AM.
The line shifted back to Columbus +140 or +145 (The Greek is the only one i see lower than +140 on http://www.sbrodds.com/#/odds/nhl/game/moneyline.html).
A couple questions...
1) is it a play if the line touches below 10 cents, or does it have to close 10 cents below open?
2) What book do you take lines from? (or do use sbr odds)
THanks for the help and the picks. I'll be around all year.
I look for a full 10 cent move anytime there are at least 2000-2500 bets on a game. I don't worry about what the line closes at or if it moves back closer to the opening line. As long as it hits 10 cents and has the # of bets needed, I consider it a play.
I look at SBRodds, Sportsbook Spy and Sports Insights. Sometimes they have conflicting information which makes it tough. So if they do I'll look at line history at major books and see if they all have similar line movement. Major books being 5Dimes, Bookmaker, Greek, etc...
NHL Rlm 09-10
(2-1) 66% +1.60
Good work Hoff. I didn't tail the Islander play, so I am 2-0.Of course, it isn't good policy to be selective on these types of plays but I'll take it. To continued success..
NHL RLM 2009-10
(2-1) 66% +1.60
10/06/09
Tampa Bay +130 loss
Los Angeles +120 win
Last edited by The HOFF; 10-07-09 at 01:57 AM.
This is rolling along nicely so far.
Looks like the line on the phoenix game is moving fast. I was only able to find 1 book with +170 still. They've moved 20+ cents and have ~2300 bets while ~80% are on pittsburgh.
NHL RLM 2009-10
(3-2) 60% +1.80
10/07/09
Phoenix +170 win
Last edited by The HOFF; 10-08-09 at 02:06 AM.
A solid 3-0 victory by the Coyotes. RLM is the reason it is called "investing", and not "gambling".
Found this thread a couple days ago...loving it so far
Im a noob here, but looking forward to cashing in this season!
Just a quick look at sbrodds it looks like there might be a few plays tonight.
I see at least 2 right now, a 3rd that I've seen some contradicting info on, and a 4th with not enough bets yet.
Get on early...
Which site are you looking at? Depending on which books you look at SBRodds has Ducks, Coyotes, Islanders and Thrashers as RLM. Columbus is close, but the price hasnt dropped enough on all books.
using bettracker (sports insight),
- they give 11cents on Ducks,
- Phoenix is 28cents (although now that I look at it, only 56% are on Buffalo, so not a real RLM play),
- Islanders have 62% on their side, so it has movement, just not RLM,
- Atlanta only shows 2cent movement with 39% on their side.
According to SBR,
- Ducks
- Phoenix
- Islanders
- Columbus (2 books have moved under +166, down to about 160 - from 176)
Give it a few more hours and I'm sure we will see 3 plays (maybe not the 60% against the islanders as needed) and maybe 4
Thanks Exhoosier10. I'll take a look at all those. I'm sure some of those will turn into plays before game time.
I understand Phoenix qualifies but you really see them going 3-0 on this roadtrip? Btoh teams play the trap so i expect a close game, and lean under, but I'm not sure I like Phoenix in this spot in a back to back vs a rested squad. Also, HOFF who's starting for Phoenix tonight? please say Labarbra so I can pound Buffalo.
I follow these reverse line moves very closely, but to be a little more selective, I add in an analysis of the goalies. When a goalie is playing well they give their teams, no matter how poor their offense is, a great chance to win. My plays are posted under NHL SMART BETS. Good Work in this forum, though. Like what I see.
I don't want to speak for Hoff, but I assume the idea here is to find teams where it appears that the public, who relies on guesses and assumptions and poor information, are on one side (hence the 60% element) but the people who know what they are doing are on the other side (hence the significant reverse line movement). Any by setting strict, objective variables, you don't risk interjecting some nonessential or weak or subjective analysis into the equation (which would make you bet more like "the public"). And because the public almost always bets favorites in mass, this system will almost always come up with dogs. In other words, if you have a system that works and the plays are based on purely objective criteria (i.e. x% bets on one side, y reverse line movement), then you have to play every play that meets those criteria and leave all other subjective factors out of the equation.
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