[ChalkyDog]

First, these aren't spot plays. These are more about me feeling the itch to gamble.

PACERS ATS

Nothing like the game 4 matchup where I came across an insane trend. Instead, I am looking at pertinent numbers.

• Pacers 5-0 ATS last 5 after following a loss
• Pacers 7-1 ATS at home
• In series that fluctuate back and forth like this one has, the winner of Game 5 only wins game 6 45% of the time
• Very basic line making has the Pacers as 2 pt favorites

-I think the Pacers win this game, but the fact that Miami can explode at anytime has me hesitant to pound Indiana in a closeout game.


Chicago -160

This may very well be homerism going on here. I love my hawks. However, at least I can provide some solid reasoning for my homer pick.

• LA 1-11 in their last 12 road games
• LA 3-7 in their last 10 in Chi-Town
• LA has been anemic on offense, averaging 1.25 goals per game
• CHI wrecks teams that scored less than 2 goals in their last game (38-13) - the LA avg gives more credence to this being meaningful.

Generally speaking, Quick gives them a real ability to win this. Hawks, I feel, are just too good - and the stats support it. However, if you play based on value - the value is on the Kings in this game, no question.

Anyway, good luck. Would love to cash these.

[ChalkyDog]

1 down, the easy one at that. Now to wait and hurl death threats at my Tv towards James, entire pacers team, and undoubtedly the refs and stern.

Amazing would be cashing this.

[Speedy88]

Good luck Chalky. I think taking the pts is the right side here, especially with Birdman out. His absence will definitely be felt tonight. He is the only Miami player capable of guarding Hibbert.

Only thing that scares me about Indy is their inexperience in a must-win game, and that the line is now moving to -3 at some books.

[Vegas39]

Wasn't exactly easy but GL chalky

[odog11]

First, these aren't spot plays. These are more about me feeling the itch to gamble.

PACERS ATS

Nothing like the game 4 matchup where I came across an insane trend. Instead, I am looking at pertinent numbers.

• Pacers 5-0 ATS last 5 after following a loss
• Pacers 7-1 ATS at home
• In series that fluctuate back and forth like this one has, the winner of Game 5 only wins game 6 45% of the time
• Very basic line making has the Pacers as 2 pt favorites

-I think the Pacers win this game, but the fact that Miami can explode at anytime has me hesitant to pound Indiana in a closeout game.


Chicago -160

This may very well be homerism going on here. I love my hawks. However, at least I can provide some solid reasoning for my homer pick.

• LA 1-11 in their last 12 road games
• LA 3-7 in their last 10 in Chi-Town
• LA has been anemic on offense, averaging 1.25 goals per game
• CHI wrecks teams that scored less than 2 goals in their last game (38-13) - the LA avg gives more credence to this being meaningful.

Generally speaking, Quick gives them a real ability to win this. Hawks, I feel, are just too good - and the stats support it. However, if you play based on value - the value is on the Kings in this game, no question.

Anyway, good luck. Would love to cash these.

Nice hits with some solid reasoning and self awareness, not enough of those things around here. Points were not needed, but taking them was the smart move.

[Vegas39]

Well done chalky

[STAY STRONG]

in it to win it

[PAULYPOKER]

[ChalkyDog]

Blackhawks were not easy, but at -160 it better be a bit easier.

[GUMMO77]

Good work. Chalky

[ChalkyDog]

Fukk it, gonna just make this thread title count twice. I took the hawks last second today on a complete degen move (obviously I am posting this well after the fact, it's 4-1 with 3mins left in the game).

So, figure I will just follow this up under similar logic on Pacers ATS.

Those guys have paid the bills this post season, going to give them a chance for glory by giving them the opportunity to cash a ticket and send James and the asshats packing in the same fell swoop.

Anyway, good luck. And as always - fukk Miami.