1. 04-30-13 08:11 AM #1
    huntley
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    Playoff Chase Thread

    Playoff System

    Ive been doing this for a couple of years and its proved extremely successful. It is based on the principle that the better team in a series is not going to get swept by the worse team--pretty simple. It is set up similar to most chase systems with the goal being to win 1 unit over the course of 4 games. Once the one unit is won, the chase is over and there are no more bets on the playable team until the next series (assuming they advance and are still the favourite). I DO NOT play all the series, although I do believe it would be profitable to do so. Instead, I double my unit size on teams which I feel are likely to win one of their first 2 home games). A quick side note, as the rounds progress I will adjust the plays and the playable teams based on how teams are playing. It is usually quite easy to predict upsets once the first series is complete. For example, last years LA Kings would have bankrupt the system if one was to be stubborn and maintained that higher seed=better team. Play it straight up for the first round if you please, but I will list plays as I will bet them and as I have been successful doing so.

    Please be advised that although series VERY RARELY reach the third game, they do bets become quite substantial at that point so do not play an overly aggressive unit size if you are not set up to do so.

    Todays plays will be posted shortly.
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  2. 04-30-13 10:53 AM #2
    huntley
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    April 30th

    Chase 1-Chi (2unit chase)
    Game 1 (Chi-1.434)-Bet 4.608U to win 2Units

    Chase 2-Ana (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Ana-1.740)-Bet 1.351U to win 1Unit

    Note-No chase on the LA/STL series.
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  3. 05-01-13 05:57 AM #3
    huntley
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    April 30th

    Chase 1-Chi (2unit chase)
    Game 1 (Chi-1.434)-Bet 4.608U to win 2Units

    Chase 2-Ana (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Ana-1.740)-Bet 1.351U to win 1Unit

    Note-No chase on the LA/STL series.

    Chase Record 2-0 (+3Units)
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  4. 05-01-13 07:33 AM #4
    huntley
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    May 1st

    Chase 3-Bos (2unit chase)
    Game 1 (Bos-1.55)-Bet 3.604U to win 2Units

    Chase 4-Pit (2unit chase)
    Game 1 (Pit-1.427)-Bet 4.684U to win 2Units

    Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit

    Chase Record 2-0 (+3 Units)
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  5. 05-01-13 10:03 PM #5
    jonny2k4
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    Good job.. wish I would of followed from beginning!
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  6. 05-02-13 05:58 AM #6
    huntley
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    May 1st

    Chase 3-Bos (2unit chase)
    Game 1 (Bos-1.55)-Bet 3.604U to win 2Units

    Chase 4-Pit (2unit chase)
    Game 1 (Pit-1.427)-Bet 4.684U to win 2Units

    Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit

    Chase Record 4-0 (+7 Units)
    Open Chases-1
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  7. 05-02-13 04:40 PM #7
    huntley
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    Don't have my computer but plays are on nyr and mon .. Both 1 unit
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  8. 05-03-13 06:05 AM #8
    huntley
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    May 2nd

    Chase 6-Mon (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Mon-1.709)-Bet 1.41U to win 1Unit

    Chase 7-NYR (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (NYR-2.15)-Bet 0.87U to win 1Unit

    Chase Record 4-0 (+7 Units)
    Open Chases-3
    Game 2 Van-May 3rd
    Game 2 Mon-May 3rd
    Game 2-NYR-May 4th (**Note-12:30pm est start**)
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  9. 05-03-13 06:44 AM #9
    huntley
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    May 3rd

    Chase 6-Mon (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Mon-1.709)-Bet 1.41U to win 1Unit
    Game 2-Awaiting Line

    Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit
    Game 2 (Van-1.719) Bet 3.313 to win 2.282Units

    Chase Record 4-0 (+7 Units)
    Open Chases-3
    Game 2-NYR-May 4th (**Note-12:30pm est start**)
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  10. 05-03-13 09:10 AM #10
    odog11
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    Do you ever consider bailing when it looks like you have picked the wrong team as the better team? I think with Luongo in net for the Nucks they are not the better team.
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  11. 05-03-13 09:49 AM #11
    huntley
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    Quote Originally Posted by odog11 View Post
    Do you ever consider bailing when it looks like you have picked the wrong team as the better team? I think with Luongo in net for the Nucks they are not the better team.
    Consider.. Yes, but I believe I have only actually done so once and it was after game 2 when the team got completely dismantled at home in back to back games. Agree with you that van got outplayed, and I could see San Jose ultimately winning this series, but I remain convinced that it is extremely unlikely that they do so via the sweep. Would appreciate your input after tonight's game.. It should give us a good idea of whether or not van is gonna roll over
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  12. 05-03-13 11:43 AM #12
    odog11
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    Quote Originally Posted by huntley View Post
    Consider.. Yes, but I believe I have only actually done so once and it was after game 2 when the team got completely dismantled at home in back to back games. Agree with you that van got outplayed, and I could see San Jose ultimately winning this series, but I remain convinced that it is extremely unlikely that they do so via the sweep. Would appreciate your input after tonight's game.. It should give us a good idea of whether or not van is gonna roll over
    I think Vancouver should come out strong tonight and have the better of the 5 on 5 play, but a few other key points I always factor when capping, especially in the playoffs.

    1. Which goalie is more likely to stand on his head and steal a game. Slight edge Sharks.

    2. Which goalie is more likely to spit the bit and cost the team the game: One word: Luongo. Pretty big edge to the Sharks.

    3. Special Teams. Edge to Sharks here too.

    I agree that Sharks not very likely to sweep, but I think looking at this game by itself value is with the Sharks at +125.
    Last edited by odog11; 05-03-13 at 01:32 PM.
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  13. 05-03-13 12:56 PM #13
    huntley
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    Still waiting on Montreal line movement--line is steadily cimbing


    Quote Originally Posted by odog11 View Post
    I think Vancouver should come out string tonight and have the better of the 5 on 5 play, but a few other key points I always factor when capping, especially in the playoffs.

    1. Which goalie is more likely to stand on his head and steal a game. Slight edge Sharks.

    2. Which goalie is more likely to spit the bit and cost the team the game: One word: Luongo. Pretty big edge to the Sharks.

    3. Special Teams. Edge to Sharks here too.

    I agree that Sharks not very likely to sweep, but I think looking at this game by itself value is with the Sharks at +125.

    All good food for thought, I appreciate the insight. Hopefully, for the sake of the system, urgency prevails tonight.
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  14. 05-03-13 02:05 PM #14
    huntley
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    May 3rd-Mon line added

    Chase 6-Mon (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Mon-1.709)-Bet 1.41U to win 1Unit
    Game 2 (Mon-1.751)-Bet 3.209U to win 2.41Units

    Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit
    Game 2 (Van-1.719) Bet 3.313U to win 2.282Units

    Chase Record 4-0 (+7 Units)
    Open Chases-3
    Game 2-NYR-May 4th (**Note-12:30pm est start**)
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  15. 05-04-13 07:39 AM #15
    huntley
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    May 3rd

    Chase 6-Mon (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Mon-1.709)-Bet 1.41U to win 1Unit
    Game 2 (Mon-1.751)-Bet 3.209U to win 2.41Units

    Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit
    Game 2 (Van-1.719) Bet 3.313U to win 2.282Units

    Chase Record 5-0 (+8 Units)
    Open Chases-2
    Game 2-NYR-May 4th (**Note-12:30pm est start**)
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  16. 05-04-13 08:10 AM #16
    huntley
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    May 4th

    Chase 7-NYR (1unit chase)--Note 12:30pm est start time
    Game 1 (NYR-2.15)-Bet 0.87U to win 1Unit
    Game 2 (NYR-2.12)-Bet 1.67Units to win 1.87Units

    Chase Record 5-0 (+8 Units)
    Open Chases-2
    Game 3-Van on May 5th
    Last edited by huntley; 05-04-13 at 09:02 AM.
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  17. 05-05-13 08:33 AM #17
    huntley
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    May 4th

    Chase 7-NYR (1unit chase)--Note 12:30pm est start time
    Game 1 (NYR-2.15)-Bet 0.87U to win 1Unit
    Game 2 (NYR-2.12)-Bet 1.67Units to win 1.87Units

    Chase Record 5-0 (+8 Units)
    Open Chases-2
    Game 3-Van on May 5th
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  18. 05-05-13 09:14 AM #18
    huntley
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    May 5th

    Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit
    Game 2 (Van-1.719) Bet 3.313U to win 2.282Units
    Game 3 (Van-2.240) Bet 4.593U to win 5.695Units

    Chase Record 5-0 (+8 Units)
    Open Chases-2
    Game 3-NYR on May 6th
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  19. 05-06-13 12:00 AM #19
    jonny2k4
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    I would reverse the chase on the Vancouver series.
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  20. 05-06-13 01:03 AM #20
    hockey216
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    happened last year to canooks and is happening this year again to the canooks.
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  21. 05-06-13 08:45 AM #21
    huntley
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    May 5th

    Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit
    Game 2 (Van-1.719) Bet 3.313U to win 2.282Units
    Game 3 (Van-2.240) Bet 4.593U to win 5.695Units

    Chase Record 5-0 (+8 Units)
    Open Chases-2
    Game 3-NYR on May 6th
    Game 4-VAN on May 7th
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  22. 05-06-13 10:24 AM #22
    huntley
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    May 6th

    Chase 7-NYR (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (NYR-2.15)-Bet 0.87U to win 1Unit
    Game 2 (NYR-2.12)-Bet 1.67Units to win 1.87Units
    Game 3 (NYR-1.719)-Bet 4.924Units to win 3.54 Units

    Chase Record 5-0 (+8 Units)
    Open Chases-2

    Game 4-VAN on May 7th
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  23. 05-07-13 07:06 AM #23
    huntley
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    May 6th

    Chase 7-NYR (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (NYR-2.15)-Bet 0.87U to win 1Unit
    Game 2 (NYR-2.12)-Bet 1.67Units to win 1.87Units
    Game 3 (NYR-1.719)-Bet 4.924Units to win 3.54 Units

    Chase Record 6-0 (+9 Units)
    Open Chases-1

    Game 4-VAN on May 7th
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  24. 05-07-13 03:20 PM #24
    huntley
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    May 7th

    Chase 5-Van (1unit chase)
    Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit
    Game 2 (Van-1.719) Bet 3.313U to win 2.282Units
    Game 3 (Van-2.240) Bet 4.593U to win 5.695Units
    Game 4 (Van-2.241) Bet 7.296U to win 10.288Units

    Chase Record 6-0 (+9 units)
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  25. 05-07-13 03:27 PM #25
    eXon
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    Good luck tonight, this chase system is looking good at the moment.
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  26. 05-07-13 04:02 PM #26
    jaspegs
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    Looks good. GL.
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  27. 05-08-13 08:31 AM #27
    huntley
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    May 7th

    Chase 5-Van (1unit chase) --:--
    Game 1 (Van-1.724) Bet 1.382U to win 1Unit
    Game 2 (Van-1.719) Bet 3.313U to win 2.282Units
    Game 3 (Van-2.240) Bet 4.593U to win 5.695Units
    Game 4 (Van-2.241) Bet 7.296U to win 10.288Units

    Chase Record 6-1 (-7.584 units)
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  28. 05-08-13 08:35 AM #28
    huntley
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    May 8th-No plays
     Chase Record 6-1 (-7.584 units)-tough break with Van got catch-up to do next round
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  29. 05-09-13 08:35 AM #29
    huntley
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    May 9th
    Going to chase some series till they finish out to recover some of what was lost in the Vancouver debacle. Looking at Pit, Bos and Chi to each win one of their remaining 3 games(with 2 at home).

    Chase 8-Pit (2 Unit Chase)
    Game 1(5) (Pit-1.467)-Bet 4.283U to win 2U

    Chase 9-Chi (2Unit Chase)
    Game 1(5)- (Chi-1.377)-Bet 5.306U to win 2U

    Chase Record 6-1 (-7.584 units)
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  30. 05-09-13 10:37 AM #30
    huntley
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    Quote Originally Posted by huntley View Post
    May 9th
    Going to chase some series till they finish out to recover some of what was lost in the Vancouver debacle. Looking at Pit, Bos and Chi to each win one of their remaining 3 games(with 2 at home).

    Chase 8-Pit (2 Unit Chase)
    Game 1(5) (Pit-1.467)-Bet 4.283U to win 2U

    Chase 9-Chi (2Unit Chase)
    Game 1(5)- (Chi-1.377)-Bet 5.306U to win 2U

    Chase Record 6-1 (-7.584 units)
    Adding Ottawa to list now that Carie Price is out for the rest of the series.

    Chase 10
    Game 1(5)- (Ott-2.140)-Bet 1.754U to win 2U
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  31. 05-10-13 03:43 PM #31
    huntley
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    May 9th

    Chase 8-Pit (2 Unit Chase)
    Game 1(5) (Pit-1.467)-Bet 4.283U to win 2U

    Chase 9-Chi (2Unit Chase)
    Game 1(5)- (Chi-1.377)-Bet 5.306U to win 2U

    Chase 10-Mon (2Unit Chase)
    Game 1(5)- (Ott-2.140)-Bet 1.754U to win 2U

    Chase Record 9-1 (-1.584 units)
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  32. 05-10-13 03:46 PM #32
    huntley
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    May 10th

    Chase 11-Bos (2Unit Chase)
     Game 1(5)- (Bos-1.492)-Bet 4.066U to win 2U

    Chase Record 9-1 (-1.584 units)
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  33. 05-11-13 06:55 AM #33
    huntley
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    May 10th

    Chase 11-Bos (2Unit Chase)
     Game 1(5)- (Bos-1.492)-Bet 4.066U to win 2U

    Chase Record 9-1 (-1.584 units)
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  34. 05-12-13 11:00 AM #34
    huntley
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    May 12th

    Chase 11-Bos (2Unit Chase)
     Game 1(5)- (Bos-1.492)-Bet 4.066U to win 2U
    Game 2(6)- (Bos-1.757)-Bet 8.013U to win 6.066U

    Chase Record 9-1 (-1.584 units)
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  35. 05-13-13 10:19 AM #35
    huntley
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    May 12th

    Chase 11-Bos (2Unit Chase)
     Game 1(5)- (Bos-1.492)-Bet 4.066U to win 2U
    Game 2(6)- (Bos-1.757)-Bet 8.013U to win 6.066U
    Game 3(7)- Awaiting Line Movement
    Chase Record 9-1 (-1.584 units)

    Extremely torn on this one. Line seems outrageous given the fact the leafs have dominated (maybe not score but definitely play and chances) in the last two games. They have won 2/3 in this series in Boston so obviously they are dealing with the crowd. Reimer has been outstanding to say the least and Phil Kessel has even been spotted backchecking, on occasion. If the line move substantially I will look to continue with the chase, however if not, I am exploring how I will bury the invested ~12Units chases in round 2.
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