I started betting hockey last year and have been trying to find a good strategy. I've followed a few guys on here that I feel are pretty consistent winners and with their help and my own picks I've done ok. But I'd like to give back a little and hopefully this system works. After seeing a lot of home teams winning lately I did some research this weekend and realized that good teams playing at home usually win at least 60% of the time.
In the 2010-2011 season the top teams (playoff teams) went 377-201-78 for a win % of .575
In the 2011-2012 season the top teams went 404-179-73 for a win % of .616
This year, even though its early, top teams are 47-15-4 for a win % of .712
Now for this system I will be picking playoff contending teams, usually top 8-10 in their conference, who are starting a home stand of at least 2 games. Some guys on here will stop a chase after a specific amount of games, usually 2 or 3, but I'm not bound to that, sometimes you just have to go with your gut. If a team has a long home stand, 5+ games and win the first game, lose the 2nd, I might start a new chase in game 3, but we'll see what happens. I recommend starting with .5 unit or 1 unit in the first game of a chase (depending on what you usually use for a unit) bc units on game 2 (and possibly game 3) will be based on what happened in the beginning of the chase. All of my picks will be 1 unit for game 1 so adjust accordingly. Just my suggestion, I'm not here to tell you what to do, I'm here to give people winners (I hope). I'm new to actually starting threads on here even though I've followed for a while so I don't know what to expect from this, but hopefully it works and brings people some extra info for their selections each night or some extra cash if you decide to follow. GL to all
Picks for tonight 2/4
Tor -115
Col -130 (2nd game of home stand, won 1st game, have 3 remaining including tonight)
Edm +125
Record
0-0
Last edited by chitown17; 02-04-13 at 05:57 PM.
Reason: added lines for each game
Well that wasn't the best start, but it's not a surprise either. Tor was in the final game of a home stand, but they were coming off of a loss, Col was in the 2nd game of a home stand and were coming off of a win and Edm hung in there with a better team, but couldn't hold on late... in regulation or overtime. So we'll get back at it today. A lot of games on the board and a lot of new home stands starting.
Strong leans:
NYI plays 3 out of 4 at home
NJ plays 5 out of 6
OTT 4 in a row
Det 5 out of 6
WPG 5 out of 6
STL 4 in a row
It seems like it would be pretty similar to the home team chase. You could fade the teams that are on the bottom half of the league when they're on an extended road trip. So far this year teams in the bottom of the standings (9th place or lower) are 17-38-6 for a win % of .278
Calgary - 3 games - Det, CBJ, Van
LA - 5 games - started with a loss, next 4 games: CBJ, Nash, Det, STL
Dal - 6 out of 7 on road - started with win, loss - next 4 road games: Edm, Edm, Cal, Van
Wash - 4 out of 5 after tonight - Pit, FL, TB, NYR
Florida - 3 games remaining on 4 game trip - started with win, next 3: WPG, Phi, Was
Tor - 3 games - Was, WPG, Mon
Take it for what it's worth, but it might be something to look into. Some of these "bad" teams might be decent teams in slumps, filled with injuries or playing other "bad" teams so a fade is not always guaranteed, but I'm sure experienced players will look into these factors before locking anything in.
NYI +135 Tough matchup tonight v Pit, but they are coming off of a loss at home and play 5 of their next 7 at home. OTT -140 Coming off 2 losses on the road and starting a 4 game home stand tonight. DET -150 Coming off a loss on the road and play 5 out of 6 at home starting tonight. STL -180 Coming off a loss on the raod and start a 4 game home stand tonight.
Edm 1.44u to win 1.2u They're coming off an overtime loss at home to Van, hopefully they bounce back tonight against Dal (2-4 on the road) who's coming off a road win against Colorado.
Pit -200, 2u to win 1u (or -140 if you take them in regulation). For record keeping I'll be using the -200. Pit is at home for 3 out of 4 starting tonight. STL - 190, 3.8u to win 2u. 2nd game of chase, lost to Nash in game 1, have 3 home games in a row remaining.
Things have to get back to normal sooner or later. BOL
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