[purplehazae479]

CALLING ALL HOCKEY EXPERTS - WHO WINS GAME 1? PENGUINS OR FLYERS? and WHY?

Straight up bet - no money lines - who wins? Pens or Flyers?

[purplehazae479]

anyone?

[lunchbawks]

Philly had too many injuries, Pittsburgh should win gm 1

[hockey216]

obviously pittsburgh is a favorite. if they're -170, you're betting them as having a 62.9% probability of winning.

There is no way to say who wins. all you can do is assess the percentages. I'd say being a 60/40 favorite sounds about right.

If you are just asking who wins, straight up, not talking about value, you'd have to go with the favorite every time. The only reason you'd pick a 60/40 dog to win outright is if you are getting value... like 3/2 on your money. If you are just talking about straight up, there is no reason to predict that the underdog would win.

In statistical regression, we refer to this as our "Error" term.

meaning if we have an equation, say, y= Bo + B1x1 + B2x2,...,BnXn + E.

reffering to y as i guess expected value of winning. or winning # of games out of a series of games... based on a variety of variables... Error is just deviation from the regression equation explained by all factors not included in model.

your regression assumptions assume that:
1) your Error term has a mean of 0
2) your Error term has constant variance
3) your Error term is independent of other terms, x values, etc.
4) your Error term is normally distributed


So, to get the basic point... pittsburgh is the favorite. There is no question to that. Can Flyers win? Sure. If the Probability of flyers winning=0, the moneyline would be higher than -1trillion, and ppl would still take it because there is no risk because its certain. When you are gambling you are dealing with an uncertain short term event. There is going to be variance. You cannot predict which way the variance will be, because your Error term has a mean of 0. So, all we know is that pittsburgh has [x] probability of winning. Other than that, there is no way to know who wins.

But, if you are asking, which is more likely? Event [A] with probability 60%? Or Event [B] with probability 40%?

Of course for one event, if even money, you'd pick event A. It's more likely. Event B can happen, but it is less likely.

so, pittsburgh should win tonight. There is no way to know who will win. If we knew that, it would not be gambling, the outcome would be certain, and nobody would wager on flyers because the probability of winning=0. It would mean its impossible.

That being said, if someone is dumb enough to give you pittsburgh at even money, take it! They are a sucker. They could get better value at 3/2 on their money in sportsbook. What you could do, if you just wanted free money without risk... is bet them 100 straight up on pittsburgh. Then take their hundred, bet it on flyers moneyline. That way if pitt wins, he reimburses your losses. you lose 100. he pays you 100. If flyers win, you pay him 100. But you get 150 from sportsbooks so you are 50 ahead. you could also bet like 75 on flyers to win like 110 or something. that way you win either way, either 10 if flyers win or 25 if pitt wins. no risk. lol.

[hockey216]

pittsburgh is clearly the better team. crosby has been getting going. they also have depth. their 3rd line center jordan staal i think has 20+ goals. they are solid on defense. good goaltending. and they play a very good system.

pittsburgh should win but there is no way to know for sure. All we can say is there is a 60% chance they win, 40% chance they lose. You have to understand that you are dealing with an uncertain outcome. If the outcome was certain, pit was guaranteed to win, ML would be -99999999999999999 and ppl would still bet pit because there is no risk because you cannot lose, and nobody would bet flyers because probability of winning=0. Pittsburgh definitely is a favorite and is more likely to win. but you have to understand that all you can do is assess probabilities and go on that.

If you think pittsburgh has higher than a 63% chance of winning, bet them. If you think flyers have higher than a 40% chance of winning, bet them. All you can do is assess percentages, and go based on the percentages you assess. There is no way to know the outcome because it is an uncertain event.

[odog11]

pittsburgh should win but there is no way to know for sure. All we can say is there is a 60% chance they win, 40% chance they lose.
.

The books/public set the odds and so they are the ones saying that these are the percentages, roughly 60% Pitt wins in this case, but that does not mean that is the actual likelihood. There have been games where I felt there was a better than 50% chance the underdog wins, game seven of the finals last year comes to mind. Vancouver was the favorite, what you could call a "false" favorite. That's really what it comes down to in gambling to be successful you need to be able to find places where the books have set the odds based on an incorrect probability calculation. Usually this has something to do with public perception or the books/public not weighing certain factors enough or too much. Incidentally I like Pitt tonight, better than 60% in my eyes, even though they are a public darling I think it is highly likely(70% or more) that they win tonight.

[dredmahawkus]

I try and play mostly dogs....but I am on pitt tonight as well. 3 units......I also made a small play on the over.

[hockey216]

The books/public set the odds and so they are the ones saying that these are the percentages, roughly 60% Pitt wins in this case, but that does not mean that is the actual likelihood. There have been games where I felt there was a better than 50% chance the underdog wins, game seven of the finals last year comes to mind. Vancouver was the favorite, what you could call a "false" favorite. That's really what it comes down to in gambling to be successful you need to be able to find places where the books have set the odds based on an incorrect probability calculation. Usually this has something to do with public perception or the books/public not weighing certain factors enough or too much. Incidentally I like Pitt tonight, better than 60% in my eyes, even though they are a public darling I think it is highly likely(70% or more) that they win tonight.

of course. that's why we are handicapping. We are comparing our own opinions of the probabilities to the opinion of public/vegas on the probabilities. What i'm saying is that, if your own opinion assigns a 70/30 chance... you still dont know who is going to win. The outcome is still uncertain. All you knwow is you are 70% to win, 30% to lose. "Randomness" is a phenomena where in the short term the outcome is unknown, but in the long run, the percentage of the outcomes is known.

Not saying vegas is always right. If they were, there would be no reason to bet sports. What im saying is we look at vegas' probabilities, compare them to our own, and use the difference in our views of the probabilities to make bets.