Flea Hotel's Legendary Chalk Free Plays

[fataliz]

thank you for the night!

but should it be win 1 unit? 1 from okc tt, 1 from wild over 2.5, -1 for min to win in regulation

[nature_one]

Keep it rolling,i'm on board on every play since the Christmas break ended ) Cheers

[Flea Hotel]

You're right, will amend. Ty.

thank you for the night!

but should it be win 1 unit? 1 from okc tt, 1 from wild over 2.5, -1 for min to win in regulation

[franknikki1]

Haha right when I saw Crosby score I remember that bet you wanted to make lol. I called my book to ask them why they don't offer some of these prop player bets. Guy had no idea why, said he would get back to me today. lol

Good call on that Flea Hotel.

[sedwards86]

After you hit that sick Minnesota reverse PL last week, reverse PL's have been on my mind more than anything else. It happens way more than I would have guessed. It occurs about once each night and some nights 2-3 times. Last night (12/27), it was the Jets beating the Hawks 3-1. It's almost always a road dog. Probably because if a team is at home and still the underdog, they have no business winning by 2 or more.

All that being said, Flea, you being the reverse PL genius that you are, I'm hoping to convince you to enlighten me and others as to what reverse PL you think has the best shot each night. Pretty please. You wouldn't have to count it towards your official record or anything. It could be considered a bonus.

[Flea Hotel]

I'm always on the lookout for them. I play several games a night but I only post my best of the best here. I'm doing well on the reverse PL's but I'm only posting them here if I think they have a better chance of hitting than not. I'm always on the lookout, even underdog in regulations, anything chalk free, I'm crunching. Tonight's play is a pretty meat and potatoes number.

After you hit that sick Minnesota reverse PL last week, reverse PL's have been on my mind more than anything else. It happens way more than I would have guessed. It occurs about once each night and some nights 2-3 times. Last night (12/27), it was the Jets beating the Hawks 3-1. It's almost always a road dog. Probably because if a team is at home and still the underdog, they have no business winning by 2 or more.

All that being said, Flea, you being the reverse PL genius that you are, I'm hoping to convince you to enlighten me and others as to what reverse PL you think has the best shot each night. Pretty please. You wouldn't have to count it towards your official record or anything. It could be considered a bonus.

[Flea Hotel]

Tonight's plays.
(YTD 8-8, 7.05u)

LA PL-1.5 vs Vancouver (+215) 1u to win 2.15u

Toronto def Florida IN REGULATION/IN 60 MINUTES (+176) 1u to win 1.76u

Naturally, I'm taking the Kings Over 2.5 (-135) and Toronto Over 2.5 (-110) in my team totals thread.

[Flea Hotel]

Adding...

Pittsburgh Penguins PL-1.5 (+175) 1u to win 1.75u


I'm thinking Crosby makes it 5 in a row too. Too much juice to play the over 2.5 on this one to post it but I will be playing it personally.

[franknikki1]

Lets get this money flea!!!!!!

[Flea Hotel]

I think the Pens dance all over Carolina. I almost played a PL -2.5

Lets get this money flea!!!!!!

[sedwards86]

What's your thoughts on Toronto reverse PL?

[agendaman]

leafs play fla. tonite and tampa bay tomorrow 1 win for sure i like habs also

[Flea Hotel]

If you think Toronto can win, then +265 to +275 can be tempting. I almost played Toronto ML. Wouldn't be the worst play.. Usually when it's a pickem and believe a side will win, I usually strongly consider the PL or RPL since Toronto is -110 ML or +265 PL -1.5. Interesting play, I do three rounds of models and I had the Leafs winning 2.8-2.5 in the first and most extensive, not enough for round 2 (need -0.5 in RD1 to go to RD2) but gun to head, I'd take the Leafs. Playing the PL is looking for value. If you love the Leafs in this spot it's something to consider.

What's your thoughts on Toronto reverse PL?

[Flea Hotel]

Last minute play...

Montreal vs Tampa Bay GOES TO OVERTIME (+265) 1u to win 2.65u

Most of my models have MTL winning by 1, or TB winning by 1. After a lot of number crunching, I have Montreal winning 2.49 to 2.40. I like this game to go to OT.

[sedwards86]

Anderson has won 3 of 4 with only 1.26 GAA while Luongo has lost 3 of 4 with 3.47 GAA. That's either a trend that carries on or is stopped tonight. Like I said earlier in the thread, reverse pl happens about once a night and this seems like the most likely one. But this is the NHL, so watch it be Hurricanes -1.5 over Pens or Canucks -1.5 over Kings.

[knicksrulez]

2 games in a row Crosby scores... Your hunch was indeed correct Flea

[Flea Hotel]

I'll keep betting him till he doesn't, unless the price turns chalky...He'll score again next game, maybe twice. You can just tell by watching him play, he's in the zone.

Almost had that Pens PL and don't get me started about the Leafs. Come on Kings, win by 2, score 3 and put Uncle Flea in the black for the night. I don't wanna have my second losing night in history.

2 games in a row Crosby scores... Your hunch was indeed correct Flea

[Flea Hotel]

That Toronto game was gross. I got my TT and my ML but lost my in reg and you lost, if you bet it, a sweet RPL because of some of the weirdest hockey in the second period. Oh well. Why they can't play 3 on 3 OT till someone scores I'll never know. Shootouts are so lame.

Anderson has won 3 of 4 with only 1.26 GAA while Luongo has lost 3 of 4 with 3.47 GAA. That's either a trend that carries on or is stopped tonight. Like I said earlier in the thread, reverse pl happens about once a night and this seems like the most likely one. But this is the NHL, so watch it be Hurricanes -1.5 over Pens or Canucks -1.5 over Kings.

[Flea Hotel]

Oh, I forgot about this. Nice. I rock.

Last minute play...

Montreal vs Tampa Bay GOES TO OVERTIME (+265) 1u to win 2.65u

Most of my models have MTL winning by 1, or TB winning by 1. After a lot of number crunching, I have Montreal winning 2.49 to 2.40. I like this game to go to OT.

[Flea Hotel]

My second losing night in almost four weeks. As usual, feel great about the bets, especially the Toronto and Pitt plays. LAK fooled all my models. Nailed the Habs and TB going to to OT. No worries, my system learns from it's mistakes and winners galore await us, and hot Asian girls await me.

(YTD 9-11, 6.70u)

[franknikki1]

I made a big mistake and went too heavy on Kings -1.5 and Pitts -1.5. DAMN!!!

[Flea Hotel]

Bankroll management.

Take your entire bankroll. Divide by 100. Play 1 unit per play. Tail good cappers or make good picks and you will end up with more money than you started with. Don't chase losses. Don't be more than a unit. The reason 95+% of sports bettors lose is because they don't have the discipline for it. People who want a high risk/high reward should go put 1000 dollars on 20 red on a roulette table.

After a month or two, recount your bankroll and again, divide by 100. That's your new unit size. I turned 5 dollar units into 50 dollar units in under a year. It requires a lot of patience and going to bed frustrated but if you like cash money, that's how you do it.

Without discipline and proper bankroll management, making money long term betting sports is impossible.

I made a big mistake and went too heavy on Kings -1.5 and Pitts -1.5. DAMN!!!

[Flea Hotel]

Ok, crappy day yesterday but shit happens. I wouldn't be on this forum if I didn't have bad days. Will have more. What's good for me, is I'll have more good days than bad days. Maybe just one more, maybe many more, but I always end up in the black, and in the green, or brown, since I'm Canadian and I hate twenties, and I love Asians.... I digress.
(YTD 9-11, 6.70u)

Boston def Buffalo in 60 minutes. (+126) 1u to win 1.26u

Toronto Maple Leafs ML. (+120) 1u to win 1.20u

[franknikki1]

Yes that makes sense Flea, I always want that big payday and go to much on some picks. I need to follow that Bankroll management advise. thanks bro

[sedwards86]

Flea, I will give you every bet point I have (the whole measly 380 or whatever) if you will give a RPL to wager tonight. I know you got one you like.
I have three that I kind of like and I'm hoping the one you say coincides with one of mine.

[Flea Hotel]

I could only give you a RPL that I'd play if I had a gun to my head. I wouldn't play them but if I had to call one I guess I'd take is Toronto RPL -1.5 +280 but again, I really like the Leafs to win, so all I'm doing is saying for the +280, that would be my play. I wouldn't play it. Take Boston PL or Ottawa PL if you're desperate for +200. Parlaying Boston ML and Ottawa ML is almost +200 but I wouldn't play that either. Sorry man, if I find a value RPL I'll let you know. The Leafs could win by 2 if they could win by one but I'm taking them ML. Good value RPL's are like four leaf clovers, I could never support any RPL for tonight but I gave you my thoughts gun to head. BOL!

Flea, I will give you every bet point I have (the whole measly 380 or whatever) if you will give a RPL to wager tonight. I know you got one you like.
I have three that I kind of like and I'm hoping the one you say coincides with one of mine.

[sedwards86]

Well there will definitely be at least one RPL, probably two. I'm liking Toronto and LA the most to win -1.5. And don't apologize. I hope I didn't "put you in a spot" asking you to give me a RPL.

[Flea Hotel]

There's always RPL's after the games are over. I can't find any to even put a half unit on. I like Toronto over LA. I watched the Kings look like an AHL team last night. I could see Toronto winning 5-2 or 5-3 tonight. I got them ML. The difference between ML and the RPL is just no OT and another goal.

Well there will definitely be at least one RPL, probably two. I'm liking Toronto and LA the most to win -1.5. And don't apologize. I hope I didn't "put you in a spot" asking you to give me a RPL.

[dcsbears]

Hopefully seaward didn't bet that bruins game that's gonna be a loss

[sedwards86]

Hopefully seaward didn't bet that bruins game that's gonna be a loss

Am I "seaward"? Bruins game? Huh? What have I said about Bruins/Sabres?

[sedwards86]

Flea, do you use any type of advanced analytics (Corsi, Fenwick) in your model? I once tried betting teams based off Corsi %, but like almost everything, it worked out about 50% of the time.

In defense of the Kings, they are heavily relying on Peter Budaj. I can easily assume your opinion of that guy, seeing you live around Montreal. When Quick gets back, it's going to be a whole different story.

[Flea Hotel]

Yeah, they sure shit the bed in that one.

Hopefully seaward didn't bet that bruins game that's gonna be a loss

[Flea Hotel]

Nope, I use my own hybrid of common sampling methods, mainly strata and systematic, with a dissertation level twist of the Monte Carlo method. I run over 50 variables on games, ranging from streaks, multiple H2H, refs, recent player performance, etc. I prob have too many variables but when I run them all through, I get a score. If the score meets certain requirements I've set, I play it myself. If it exceeds those requirements, I play it AND post it. My own bias has nothing to do with it. It's purely a statistical modelling system that is for my dissertation which argues my sampling system is a good forecaster of various economic fundamentals, and highly volatile and unpredictable commodities including stocks, precious metals, and now, bitcoin and sports "wagering".

Flea, do you use any type of advanced analytics (Corsi, Fenwick) in your model? I once tried betting teams based off Corsi %, but like almost everything, it worked out about 50% of the time.

In defense of the Kings, they are heavily relying on Peter Budaj. I can easily assume your opinion of that guy, seeing you live around Montreal. When Quick gets back, it's going to be a whole different story.

[Flea Hotel]

That's more like it.
WINNERS!

YTD 11-11, 9.16u

[sedwards86]

That was a damn good night, Flea. I believe the Senators o2.5 was your only miss. And they underperformed against a goalie making his third career start.