[winningdoc]

Even though my work field is science and medicine, I love math and have always been convinced that math can predict handicapping better than anything else, even though I have yet to see anyone do it successfully, including myself. This past week I have been playing around with formulas for several sports, but can't be backtracked and is a very small sample size. My current one for hockey has picked out of 23 out of 33 games; they are mostly very heavy favorites, but it has won 7.5 units in that time. I don't like this formula, as I don't think it will work in the long run, but it has outgained betting it any other way. Anyway, here are the picks for today that I will be putting small plays on:

Detroit -150
Dallas -145
Boston -215
NY Islanders -130
San Jose -205
St. Louis -200

We'll see what happens....

[LizReed44]

As you allude to, it's tough when you're laying that much wood - you can go 4-2 but if your losers are on the Bruins and Sharx, you lose money.

[Damian82]

Hockey tends to be over analyzed. Some stats/trends are totally worthless and tend to make me second guess myself in the end. Who really cares what the Red Wings record is on a Tuesday? Home/away records, winning/losing streaks/GF/GA/injuries/starting goalies..and gut instinct is what i go on and I do just fine. But that's just me.

[winningdoc]

Results for Sat and units:
Detroit -150 W +1.0 unit
Dallas -145 L -1.45 unit
Boston -215 L -2.15 unit
NY Islanders -130 W +1.0 unit
San Jose -205 W +1.0 unit
St. Louis -200 W +1.0

Total: 4-2 +0.4 units for the day
Total for this formula: 27/39 +7.9 units

[winningdoc]

Picks for Sunday:

Pittsburgh -130 (already started, but was still a play)
Washington -240
NY Rangers -130
Vancouver -230

[winningdoc]

Results for Sunday:

Pittsburgh -130 W +1.0 unit
Washington -240 W +1.0 unit
NY Rangers -130 L -1.3 units
Vancouver -230 L -2.3 units

2/4 for the day, for a loss of 1.6 units

Totals: 29/43, +6.3 units

[winningdoc]

For Monday (all super heavy favorites):

Ottawa -175
Boston -175
Detroit -230
St. Louis -200

[PuckIt]

For Monday (all super heavy favorites):

Ottawa -175
Boston -175
Detroit -230
St. Louis -200

Did you parlay any of these? ML or PL?

And as for the whole math to pick games thing, AccuScore does something similar and they seem to do pretty well, but mostly for football and soccer it seems.

[H1Cypher]

I don't need math to tell me a team that is -200 or better favorite should win that game. Use your math to predict NBA totals and be + that might prove something. This is a total wash. Let's see you use math to consistently pick dogs- oh wait you can't.

My biggest bet was Nashville they were at -115. Math didn't tell you they were just as good a pick as the -200 favorites today?

Just saying this would be way more impressive with basketball. Possessions allowed, possesions per, offensive efficiency, points allowed, points per game, points in the paint, points allowed in the paint, fastbreak points, etc. etc. etc.

You working your math with the team totals?

[winningdoc]

I don't need math to tell me a team that is -200 or better favorite should win that game. Use your math to predict NBA totals and be + that might prove something. This is a total wash. Let's see you use math to consistently pick dogs- oh wait you can't.

My biggest bet was Nashville they were at -115. Math didn't tell you they were just as good a pick as the -200 favorites today?

Just saying this would be way more impressive with basketball. Possessions allowed, possesions per, offensive efficiency, points allowed, points per game, points in the paint, points allowed in the paint, fastbreak points, etc. etc. etc.

You working your math with the team totals?

You are missing the point though. Yes, you don't need math to say that a -200 team should win. The goal is to find something that is profitable that is math driven. Why does it matter if they are dogs or huge favorites? It's just an experiment, but it's all about making money. So far it has very, very short term, and the goal is to see if it will long term or not. Otherwise, I will keep trying.

[1sob]

betting heavy wood in hockey will get you on welfare..
good luck

[boondoggle]

doc...the nucks were -220 last night and were routed by the ducks. Examine the winning % needed to profit at -110. Now extend to -175 and -200. This is where quite a few of your selections are based.

[face]

not all -200 lines are the same. like when capitals or flyers are -200 who cares? but the sabres are not going to beat the red wings tonight

[nammertl]

A couple of guys were following statistics and were doing great and then fell into a losing streak and have since disappeared. I firmly believe that over a very long period of time and with a nice bankroll math and statistics will make u a profit. But instincts can work wonders if u know when to follow it. I've been in the hole for disregarding my guts and "gamble" instead. These i won't feel good betting on the visiting team no matter how good the are and I've learned that certain teams are a bad match up for certain teams in certain situations for example I will not bet against Phoenix playing as dogs and at home to any team. if the were the visiting team well I'd reconsider

[Cicima6709]

I don't think you can use math to pick ml winners.

I know you will get buried laying that much juice in hockey on a blind system. I'd only lay that much juice in very select spots.

If you want to use math, look into props. Very easy to make a profit, and almost entirely math based. However you get limited fast, and books that offer props usually have tight limits. With that said, IMO props are the way to go. People here get excited when they get a game line at -115 that closed at -120...if you look at props, you can constantly get bets at -120 that close at -200.

[winningdoc]

Thanks for the responses. I am only on here a couple of times a day so I can't get to reply very much. I am just playing everything on the Money Line. Yes, typically I would agree 100% that high juiced lines will kill someone's bankroll. However, I was trying this to see if it could possibly work (and not all are -200 favorites, it's just whatever the formula says to bet).

Cicima6709, are you talking about 3-way lines (final score in regulation?) I actually was using the formula instead of the money line, but that ended up at -4.3 units for the same games, which surprised me. That's why I was trying money line only, but still tracking the 3-way lines.

Results for Monday: 3/4, +1.25 units
Ottawa -175 L -1.75 units
Boston -175 W +1.0 unit
Detroit -230 W +1.0 unit
St. Louis -200 W +1.0 unit

Totals so far for formula:
32/47 +7.55 units

[winningdoc]

Picks for Tuesday, Jan 17: (I personally don't like this card, but still am betting the same small amount to experiment)

Philadelphia -200
Pittsburgh -210
Washington -175
New Jersey -175
NY Rangers -180
Boston -180
Detroit -150
Vancouver -175
San Jose -210

[SiX111]

Picks for Tuesday, Jan 17: (I personally don't like this card, but still am betting the same small amount to experiment)

Philadelphia -200
Pittsburgh -210
Washington -175
New Jersey -175
NY Rangers -180
Boston -180
Detroit -150
Vancouver -175
San Jose -210

Very interesting picks, I'm really interested in your concept though.

[theblueprint]

This is ridiculous...youre just picking the heavy favorites....what kinda math you need to figure something as simple as that out?

[Damian82]

Picks for Tuesday, Jan 17: (I personally don't like this card, but still am betting the same small amount to experiment)

Philadelphia -200
Pittsburgh -210
Washington -175
New Jersey -175
NY Rangers -180
Boston -180
Detroit -150
Vancouver -175
San Jose -210

Nothing wrong with picking heavy favorites but you can bet that at least 2 or 3 of the favorites each night will trip up. Honestly I'm not sure who I want to take tonight. Theres a lot of good picks on the ML and O/U tonight.

[winningdoc]

Results for Jan. 17: 6/9; +.7 units
Philadelphia -200 W +1.0 unit
Pittsburgh -210 W +1.0 unit
Washington -175 L -1.75 unit
New Jersey -175 W +1.0 unit
NY Rangers -180 W +1.0 unit
Boston -180 L -1.8 units
Detroit -150 W +1.0 unit
Vancouver -175 L -1.75 units
San Jose -210 W +1.0 unit

Totals: 38/56 +8.25 units

Plays for Wednesday, Jan. 18:
Chicago -240

[winningdoc]

Results for Jan 18: 1/1, +1.0 unit
Chicago -240 W +1.0 unit

Totals: 39/57 +9.25 units

Plays for Jan. 19:
Nashville -145
Toronto -165
Boston -145
NY Rangers -135
Philadelphia -205
St. Louis -270
Winnipeg -150
Detroit -170
Los Angeles -180

[winningdoc]

Results for Jan. 19: 6/9 +.8 units
Nashville -145 W +1.0 unit
Toronto -165 W +1.0 unit
Boston -145 W +1.0 unit
NY Rangers -135 L -1.35 units
Philadelphia -205 L -2.05 units
St. Louis -270 W +1.0 unit
Winnipeg -150 W +1.0 unit
Detroit -170 W +1.0 unit
Los Angeles -180 L -1.8 units

Totals: 45/66 +10.05 units

[a4u2fear]

You may want to check the math I did on last years stats, should help you.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/hockey-bet...l#post13101329

[winningdoc]

Those are some interesting stats, a4u2fear. Not sure if they apply here exactly though, as I am using stats from each team for a formula to predict which should be plays or not. Most of the time the majority of favorites or heavy favorites end up being plays, but not every favorite is played (for example, last night San Jose was -170, but was a non-play).

Plays for Friday, Jan. 20th:
Pittsburgh -165
Dallas -135
Chicago -200

[winningdoc]

Results for Friday, Jan 20th; 2/3 +0.65 units
Pittsburgh -165 W +1.0 unit
Dallas -135 L -1.35 units
Chicago -200 W +1.0 unit

Totals for system: 47/69 +10.7 units

[winningdoc]

Totals for system: 47/69 +10.7 units

Plays for Sat, Jan. 21st:
Boston -155
Philadelphia -120
Vancouver -155
Detroit -330
NY Islanders -145
Toronto -155
Winnipeg -150
Phoenix -170
St. Louis -235
Los Angeles -170

[winningdoc]

Today's picks :
Pittsburgh
Boston

[a4u2fear]

Care to share any information regarding the "formula"?

[winningdoc]

I just use a number of team statistics, both offensive and defensive, factor in the current Money lines, and then it calculates which teams are plays or not.

I was out of town this weekend, so results from Sat. and today are below, with a slight loss for for the two days.

Results for Sat, Jan. 21st: 5/10 -3.0 units
Boston -155 L -1.55 units
Philadelphia -120 W +1.0 unit
Vancouver -155 W +1.0 unit
Detroit -330 W +1.0 unit
NY Islanders -145 W +1.0 unit
Toronto -155 L -1.55 units
Winnipeg -150 L -1.5 units
Phoenix -170 L -1.7 units
St. Louis -235 W +1.0 unit
Los Angeles -170 L -1.7 units

Results for Sunday: 2/2 +2.0 units
Pittsburgh -185 W +1.0 unit
Boston -135 W +1.0 unit

Totals: 54/81 + 9.7 units

[PuckIt]

Very interesting. Subscribed bc i'm curious! I wonder how your system differs from the standard capping simulators.

[winningdoc]

Totals: 54/81 + 9.7 units

Picks for Monday, Jan. 23:
Carolina -130
Detroit -150
Nashville -240
San Jose -180

[winningdoc]

There is also a (I will call it) Version II pick, which has an underdog pick and will only be underdogs, but rarely. I will track these separately.

Version II Picks: 0/0
Ottawa +120

[winningdoc]

Just got off of work and missed the earlier games, if I get done with paperwork I'll go back tonight and backtrack the plays.

Plays still not started yet:
Colorado -155
Vancouver -315

[H1Cypher]

Just got off of work and missed the earlier games, if I get done with paperwork I'll go back tonight and backtrack the plays.

Plays still not started yet:
Colorado -155
Vancouver -315

So lucky you didn't go 0-2 canucks were 1 shoot out goal away from losing the game. Just be careful- you're basically running a chase system no?

No doesn't look like your doubling your units to account for losses. Just imagine if you were how much you'd be up

Just continuously betting chalk.