1. 12-30-11 06:01 AM #1
    Optional
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    Streaky System

    I take some notice of team streaks when capping NHL games and have noticed it's been a pretty reliable metric so far this season.

    Going to use this thread to track a simple system.

    Rule 1: Tail teams who have won their last 2 games, and at least 6 of their last 10.
    Rule 2: Fade teams who have lost their last 2 games, and at least 6 of their last 10.
    Rule 3: If price is worse than -160, play Reg Time -½ (no bet worse than -160)
    Rule 4: If a Tail plays a Fade double up the bet, or take the PL.


    I'll also be tracking totals in games where Tail v Tail and Fade v Fade to see if there is any correlation there.



    Fri 30th Dec

    Calgary Flames* +115 vs Ottawa Senators 1 Unit (Fading Senators)
    Detroit Red Wings* +115 vs Chicago Blackhawks 1 Unit (Tailing Wings)
    Last edited by Optional; 12-30-11 at 06:14 AM.
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  2. 12-30-11 06:17 AM #2
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    Current Tails: Boston, Vancouver, Detroit and Winnipeg
    Current Fades: Toronto, Ottawa, Edmonton and Phoenix
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  3. 12-31-11 11:30 AM #3
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    0-2 -2.30u


    Current Tails: Boston, Vancouver, Nashville, Washington and Winnipeg
    Current Fades: Calgary, Toronto, Buffalo, Edmonton and Phoenix


    2 Unit
    7:05 PM 64 Winnipeg Jets* -125 vs Toronto Maple Leafs

    1 Unit
    1:05 PM 52 New York Islanders* -130 vs Edmonton Oilers
    6:05 PM 58 Minnesota Wild* -122 vs Phoenix Coyotes
    7:05 PM 61 Ottawa Senators* +130 vs Buffalo Sabres
    7:05 PM 65 Washington Capitals* -120 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
    8:05 PM 71 Boston Bruins (1st 60 min)* -½ -109 vs Dallas Stars (1st 60 min)
    10:05 PM 73 Vancouver Canucks* -135 vs Los Angeles Kings


    A lot more plays than I expected. Might also test with the minimum required streak of 3 for a few days to compare. Which would leave;

    1 Unit
    6:05 PM 58 Minnesota Wild* -122 vs Phoenix Coyotes
    8:05 PM 71 Boston Bruins (1st 60 min)* -½ -109 vs Dallas Stars (1st 60 min)
    10:05 PM 73 Vancouver Canucks* -135 vs Los Angeles Kings
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  4. 01-01-12 03:08 PM #4
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    2 Unit
    7:05 PM 64 Winnipeg Jets* -125 vs Toronto Maple Leafs

    1 Unit
    1:05 PM 52 New York Islanders* -130 vs Edmonton Oilers
    6:05 PM 58 Minnesota Wild* -122 vs Phoenix Coyotes
    7:05 PM 61 Ottawa Senators* +130 vs Buffalo Sabres
    7:05 PM 65 Washington Capitals* -120 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
    8:05 PM 71 Boston Bruins (1st 60 min)* -½ -109 vs Dallas Stars (1st 60 min)
    10:05 PM 73 Vancouver Canucks* -135 vs Los Angeles Kings

    4-3 +1.64 units

    Overall: 4-5 -0.66 units

    3 streak picks went 0-3



    1st Jan

    2 Units
    Nashville Predators* -121 vs Calgary Flames
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  5. 01-02-12 02:36 PM #5
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    Preds win +2 units

    Overall 5-5 +1.34 units

    2nd Jan

    1 unit
    Chicago Blackhawks (1st 60 min)* -½ -139 vs Edmonton Oilers (1st 60 min)
    Colorado Avalanche* +150 vs Los Angeles Kings

    Tailing Hawks and Avs.


    Ottawa v New Jersey is tail v tail tonight. Will track total.
    Last edited by Optional; 01-02-12 at 02:41 PM.
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  6. 01-03-12 12:08 PM #6
    caboman
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    I am guessing you are on TB for 2 units today? Other picks may include NYI, Washington for 2u, Edmonton and Phoenix?

    I am on TB for sure, don't know about the rest...
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  7. 01-03-12 12:27 PM #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by caboman View Post
    I am guessing you are on TB for 2 units today? Other picks may include NYI, Washington for 2u, Edmonton and Phoenix?

    I am on TB for sure, don't know about the rest...
    Yep. Lovin the Bolts as dogs today!

    Been thinking about this and decided the 1 unit plays are kind of silly. Making picks with no reference at all to the opposition.

    Think I'm just going to track bets for the Tail v Fades, and just keep track of Tail v Tail and Fade v Fade games to see if any pattern emerges.
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  8. 01-03-12 12:37 PM #8
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    New Rules: We only play games where a Tail meets a Fade. (for 1 unit flat for the purpose of this thread)

    New Record:     2-0 +2.00 units

    Tail v Tails
    OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)

    Fade v Fades


    3rd Jan

    Current Tails: NAS/OTT/COL/WPG/WAS/TB/NYR
    Current Fades: MON/ANA/CGY/TOR/BUF


    Tampa Bay Lightning* +118 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
    Washington Capitals (1st 60 min )* -½ -111 vs Calgary Flames (1st 60 min) (or the puckline if you prefer)
    Last edited by Optional; 01-03-12 at 12:46 PM.
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  9. 01-04-12 05:30 PM #9
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    So much for the Bolts love

    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Tampa Bay Lightning* +118 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
    Washington Capitals (1st 60 min )* -½ -111 vs Calgary Flames (1st 60 min) (or the puckline if you prefer)
    New Record: 3-1 +2.00 units

    Tail v Tails
    OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)

    Fade v Fades


    4th Jan

    Current Tails: NAS/OTT/COL/WPG/WAS/DET/NYR
    Current Fades: MON/ANA/CGY/CAR


    Winnipeg Jets* +120 vs Montreal Canadiens
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  10. 01-05-12 02:22 PM #10
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    Winnipeg get smashed.

    New Record: 3-2 +1.00 units

    Tail v Tails
    OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)

    Fade v Fades


    4th Jan

    Current Tails: WAS/NAS/OTT/Avs/NYR/DET/SJ
    Current Fades: CGY/ANA/CAR/MIN


    no bets today.
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  11. 01-06-12 04:06 PM #11
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    5th Jan

    Current Tails: OTT/WAS/NYR/SJ/Avs/BOS/DET
    Current Fades: MIN/PHX/EDM/CAR/CBJ/ANA/CGY

    Florida at New Jersey
    NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
    Buffalo at Carolina
    Colorado at Chicago
    NY Islanders at Anaheim



    No bets again today. But I'm taking the 2 NY teams personally.
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  12. 01-07-12 11:38 AM #12
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    6th Jan

    Current Tails: NYR/OTT/Avs/WAS/SJ/BOS/DET
    Current Fades: MIN/EDM/CBJ/CGY

    Vancouver at Boston
    Ottawa at Philadelphia
    Edmonton at Dallas
    Columbus at Los Angeles
    Winnipeg at Buffalo
    Detroit at Toronto
    Tampa Bay at Montreal
    New Jersey at Pittsburgh
    Colorado at St. Louis
    Carolina at Nashville
    NY Islanders at Phoenix
    Minnesota at Calgary
    Washington at San Jose


    Well that's a damn yawn. No bets again for 3rd day in a row.

    Last 2 games are watches at least.

    Probably take Bruins, Stars and Kings today myself. Probably.
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  13. 01-08-12 01:44 PM #13
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    Record: 3-2 +1.00 units

    Tail v Tails
    OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)
    WAS 2 SJ 5

    Fade v Fades
    MIN 1 CGY 3


    7th Jan

    Philadelphia at Ottawa
    Detroit at Chicago
    Columbus at Anaheim

    No team on either Fade or Tail list. No bets again. *yawn*
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  14. 01-10-12 11:41 AM #14
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    No bets on 9th Jan (not sure why I have dates 1 day wrong above.)


    10th Jan

    Current Tails: NYR/SJ/STL/NJ
    Current Fades: PIT/CHI/EDM/MIN/BUF

    Winnipeg at Boston
    Buffalo at Toronto
    Detroit at NY Islanders
    Phoenix at NY Rangers
    Ottawa at Pittsburgh
    Philadelphia at Carolina
    St. Louis at Montreal
    Vancouver at Tampa Bay
    San Jose at Minnesota
    Columbus at Chicago
    Nashville at Colorado
    New Jersey at Calgary
    Dallas at Anaheim



    Only 1 bet: San Jose Sharks (1st 60 min)* -½ +105 vs Minnesota Wild (1st 60 min)
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  15. 01-10-12 11:57 AM #15
    caboman
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    I am loving SJ here. Gonna pound them 3u ML and 1u PL tonight! Let's get 'em!!
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  16. 01-11-12 06:34 PM #16
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    Hope you didn't pound it too hard caboman

    Record: 3-3 ev units

    Tail v Tails
    OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)
    WAS 2 SJ 5

    Fade v Fades
    MIN 1 CGY 3


    11th Jan

    Pittsburgh     at Washington
    New Jersey at Edmonton

    No bets today. Will probably take Devils for myself.
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  17. 01-12-12 06:16 PM #17
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    Record: 3-3 ev units

    Tail v Tails
    OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)
    WAS 2 SJ 5

    Fade v Fades
    MIN 1 CGY 3


    12th Jan

    Tails: NYR/STL/TOR/OTT/NAS
    Fades: PIT/EDM/TB/BUF/CBJ/CAR

    Montreal at Boston
    Philadelphia at NY Islanders
    Ottawa at NY Rangers
    Carolina at Tampa Bay
    Phoenix at Detroit
    Vancouver at St. Louis
    Colorado at Nashville
    San Jose at Winnipeg
    Minnesota at Chicago
    Anaheim at Calgary
    Dallas at Los Angeles

    Damn... 3 home tails and only 1 fade playing today.

    OTT v NYR for the watch list is it.

    Bruins, Jets and Hawks for me today.
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  18. 01-13-12 08:17 PM #18
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    A bit late today... but for the record. (and of course on a day when almost every fade plays)

    Record: 3-3 ev units

    Tail v Tails
    OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)
    WAS 2 SJ 5
    OTT 3 NYR 0

    Fade v Fades
    MIN 1 CGY 3

    13th Jan

    Tails: TOR/OTT/NAS/VAN/BOS/PHI
    Fades: PIT/TB/EDM/BUF/CBJ/MON/PHX

    Tampa Bay at Washington
    Phoenix at Columbus
    Toronto at Buffalo
    Pittsburgh at Florida
    Anaheim at Edmonton


    Toronto +110 over Buffalo

    And Phx/Cbj for the watchlist.

    Didn't have a bet today myself.
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  19. 01-14-12 03:13 PM #19
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    Leafs go down

    Record: 3-4 -1.00 units

    Tail v Tails
    OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)
    WAS 2 SJ 5
    OTT 3 NYR 0

    Fade v Fades
    MIN 1 CGY 3
    PHX 3 CBJ 4

    14th Jan

    Tails: OTT/NAS/VAN/BOS/DET/PHI/WAS
    Fades: TB/EDM/PHX/MON

    Colorado at Dallas
    New Jersey at Winnipeg
    NY Rangers at Toronto
    Ottawa at Montreal
    Buffalo at NY Islanders
    Boston at Carolina
    San Jose at Columbus
    Minnesota at St. Louis
    Philadelphia at Nashville
    Los Angeles at Calgary



    Ottawa Senators* -102 vs Montreal Canadiens


    Watching PHI/NAS
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  20. 01-15-12 08:43 AM #20
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    Senators sneak home in a shootout.

    Record: 4-4 ev units

    Tail v Tails
    OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)
    WAS 2 SJ 5
    OTT 3 NYR 0
    PHI 2 NAS 4

    Fade v Fades
    MIN 1 CGY 3
    PHX 3 CBJ 4

    15th Jan

    Tails: OTT/NAS/VAN/DET/SJ/NJ/WAS
    Fades: TB/EDM/MON/WPG/PHX/MIN

    Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay
    Carolina at Washington
    NY Rangers at Montreal
    San Jose at Chicago
    Los Angeles at Edmonton
    Anaheim at Vancouver


    No bet today. But I think I like the 3 tails.


    System isn't showing much of anything so far. Any bright ideas on a better way to identify teams going on a streak?
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