Originally Posted by
PStrangers
I'll only say this once. Systems that do not factor in the odds of a game, will never be profitable in the long run. Now, I'm not saying you shouldn't bet the favorite. There are many many times where their is plenty of expected value betting a favorite, even a heavy favorite. But, certainly teams always get over-bet. The Canucks are a great example of this. Lines man need to make the line very low, otherwise they would get way to much one-sided action. In my opinion, the best way is to try to predict the odds of a side winning, and turning that into a money line, and then bet accordingly. For instance tonight I have that the Blackhawks have at 69.2% of winning (according to my model), which should be a line of -225, but they are currently at -175, showing value for betting them. But the Sharks only have a 63% chance of winning making the line -170, but the line is -190, meaning there is no value. Now my model is far far FAR from perfect, if it was, I wouldn't be on this forum, I'd be sitting on yacht with all the money I won from the bookies. Because my model is not perfect, I've found 'confirming' line movement to be a good indicator. For instance, last night I calculated the Blues have a 64.6% chance of winning, making the line -182. When I saw it open at -115 and quickly drop to -135 I knew that in fact my model prediction was correct, and I bet it. But for instance for the Blackhawks, making the line at -225, but the line opened at -185 and dropped to -175. Someone out there likes Canadians, perhaps they have a better model, perhaps they have a better 'situational statics' which makes them know the Blackhawks will have trouble tonight, or perhaps they have 'insider' information (injury, etc.) that makes them like Canadians. Regardless of what 'system' ends up working for each individual, it must incorporate the actually odds that are getting laid. My good friend and I have very different systems, in fact it is not uncommon for us to be on the opposite sides of a game, despite lengthy discussions over odds, models, etc. But year after year we both make money. So I'm not trying to talk you off betting favorites, there are often times there is good expected value on them. I'm simply trying to convince you to take your handicapping to the next level, and you'll really start killing the book!