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Parlays are the worst possible bets you can make. Sure you can hit a few and look good, but long term, you are loosing so much value. On top of already losing value by buying a goal. Its going to be very, very hard to win long term like that.Originally Posted by RED
Two negative expected value plays doesn't become one good when you parlay.
I want to test this theory tonight... Attached is a spreadsheet with all of the information and expected outcomes based on the system. My wager will be small... 10 dollars to win 174.50 (parlay all games). (This doesnt include washington and NJ games in the parlay since they dont have a 4.5 or 6.5 total on that site...but I listed the expected outcomes for those in the spreadsheet)....I agree fully that this isnt sustainable with the juice involved... especially because you can buy a half point on gamebookers for much less and do 5 or 6 totals instead of 4.5 and 6.5.. but.. Anyway. Good luck all.. we'll see if this comes through.
Good luck.
IMO buying points for O/Us just isnt worth it. Just way too pricey to buy 1 extra goal, you are better off just playing the original total. Your essentially paying 1 unit for 5.5 goals, and doubling that price to 2 units for 1 extra goal. Just not worth it.
I might try selling half points instead of buying them. Here's what I would take tonight/instead of.
MTL/BOS Under 4.5 @ +184 / Under 6 @ -222
CBJ/BUF Under 5 @ +155 / Under 6.5 @ -190
TOR/NYR Under 5 @ +131 / Under 6.5 @ -220
WPG/PHI Over 6 @ +133 / Over 4.5 @ -300
NYI/PIT Under 4.5 @ +200 / Under 6 @ -207
FLA/OTT Over 6 @ +142 / Over 4.5 @ -226
TB/NSH Over 6 @ +146 / Over 4.5 @ -309
ANA/MIN Under 4.5 @ +189 / Under 6 @ -244
LA/DAL Under 4.5 @ +157 / Under 6 @ -309
WSH/EDM Under 5 @ +129 / Under 6.5 @ -222
NJ/PHX Under 4.5 @ +163 / Under 6 @ -287
Tough to say not buy goals when last night I have 5.5 and both games land on 6 with very late goals it stings your butt
You can actually check for yourself. All you have to do is go to last Sat. with the averages and my criteria and you will see. You don't have to take my word for it but if you have doubts do your homework first. Any game totaling 5 or 6 is a win which is like half the games and then you just have to check the others.
Last edited by spankmythighs; 10-27-11 at 01:32 PM.
Interesting theory. I might try this on the side aswell. What I will do tonight is have both sides in seperate parlays using pairs. So even if one or 2 games fail you still come out ahead.
Here are my picks for tonight:
CBS VS. Buf UNDER 6.5 -185
MTL VS. Bos UNDER 6.5 -286
NYI VS. Pitt UNDER 6.5 -270
TOR VS. NYR UNDER 6.5 -238
WPG VS. Phili OVER 4.5 -286
FLA VS. Ott OVER 4.5 -263
ANA VS. Minn UNDER 6.5 -303
TB VS. Nash OVER 4.5 -270
LA VS. Dal UNDER 6.5 -333
WASH VS. Edm UNDER 6.5 -227
NJ VS. Phx UNDER 6.5 -345
Here we go!!
Current record is 28-2 +23 units since last Sat.
Here are my picks for tonight: CBS VS. Buf UNDER 6.5 -185
MTL VS. Bos UNDER 6.5 -286
NYI VS. Pitt UNDER 6.5 -270
TOR VS. NYR UNDER 6.5 -238
WPG VS. Phili OVER 4.5 -286
FLA VS. Ott OVER 4.5 -263
ANA VS. Minn UNDER 6.5 -303
TB VS. Nash OVER 4.5 -270
LA VS. Dal UNDER 6.5 -333
WASH VS. Edm UNDER 6.5 -227
NJ VS. Phx UNDER 6.5 -345
Here we go!!
yes
Damn, that is some ridiculous juice. Good luck.
We'll see. But please keep posting, I like your avatar. I have also taken the averages from each game and rounded them up and down to the nearest goal for OVER/UNDER aswell. Here are the lines:
CBS VS. Buf UNDER 5 +170
MTL VS. Bos UNDER 5 +112
NYI VS. Pitt UNDER 4.5 +198
TOR VS. NYR UNDER 5 +135
WPG VS. Phili OVER 6 +135
FLA VS. Ott OVER 6 +145
ANA VS. Minn UNDER 4.5 +173
TB VS. Nash OVER 6 +152
LA VS. Dal UNDER 4.5 +162
WAS VS. Edm UNDER 5 +134
NJ VS. Phx UNDER 5 -112
Risking $50 on each.
I'm going to buy points up to 6.5 and bet the under of every game along with parlaying the "locks"(personal favorites of the night) and see how it goes. Placing $10 on each bet and $20 on 3game parlays
So the second set is the dog way... very interesting good luck.. let em hate... no one asked them to play it
thats betterWe'll see. But please keep posting, I like your avatar. I have also taken the averages from each game and rounded them up and down to the nearest goal for OVER/UNDER aswell. Here are the lines:
CBS VS. Buf UNDER 5 +170
MTL VS. Bos UNDER 5 +112
NYI VS. Pitt UNDER 4.5 +198
TOR VS. NYR UNDER 5 +135
WPG VS. Phili OVER 6 +135
FLA VS. Ott OVER 6 +145
ANA VS. Minn UNDER 4.5 +173
TB VS. Nash OVER 6 +152
LA VS. Dal UNDER 4.5 +162
WAS VS. Edm UNDER 5 +134
NJ VS. Phx UNDER 5 -112
Risking $50 on each.
The second set is just closer to what they should average for the game based on their past games. Rounded down under .5 and up over .5. So if the combined average is 5.35, I would go UNDER 5. There will just be more ties this way and probably a better chance of $$'s.
We'll see. But please keep posting, I like your avatar. I have also taken the averages from each game and rounded them up and down to the nearest goal for OVER/UNDER aswell. Here are the lines: CBS VS. Buf UNDER 5 +170 MTL VS. Bos UNDER 5 +112 NYI VS. Pitt UNDER 4.5 +198 TOR VS. NYR UNDER 5 +135 WPG VS. Phili OVER 6 +135 FLA VS. Ott OVER 6 +145 ANA VS. Minn UNDER 4.5 +173 TB VS. Nash OVER 6 +152 LA VS. Dal UNDER 4.5 +162 WAS VS. Edm UNDER 5 +134 NJ VS. Phx UNDER 5 -112 Risking $50 on each.
Which of these will you parlay??
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I parlayed them all as pair bets.
Has this 'system' been back tested at all? I don't see how this could possibly be profitable long term.
Season regular time final scores under more then over
2 Games max. Hockey can be so up and down. Just do your homework. I would have never went over on the stlouis van game. Ive looked at the history between those 2 teams, there always 2-1, 3-2 games. I liked the montreal over, it was only a matter of time befor the canadiens would show up, and bryzgalov sucks against montreal in his history.
If only it was that easy......I bet NHL o/u almost every day - for the last 3 years. Goals for and against averages are a good place to start. Along with previous head to head record, over/under record, last 5, 10, 20 games, goalie's last 5, 10, 20 games and games against that team along with injuries and coaching philosophy, days rest and a few I don't have on the tip of my tongue.
GL on your averages.
You are better off betting LIVE and getting a better number.
Or if you want to lay serious juice, bet365, no team will score 5 goals in the game props. I pick my spots and parlay two.
Did some calculations. Took the average juice for O4.5 for the 11 games tonight and got -240. That means at the juice of -240 break even point is 70.59%. Percentage of games going O4.5 last year was 70.49%.
TIFWIW
looks good...
Looks like LA and Dallas will go OVER so that will be the only loss so far. 8-1 on the night so far.
just checking out teams who played each other twice. the record is 10- 4 where the game over/under reversed.
dallas kings 1-0 last time out. tonight over....this would be at a normal 5.5 though.
Good shit!
!
Unreal record so far but gotta think 70% win ratio over the course of a full season just can't be sustainable.
Two losses on the night tonight to go 9 - 2 for +3 units on my system. Overall record since starting Oct. 21 is 37 - 4 for +26 units.
Edittt
Last edited by bet420; 10-27-11 at 11:44 PM.
First off, thx for the sharing spankmythights.
Just one question:
Has anyone done the calculations to determine what should be the rate of success (hit ratio) for this kind of juice?
At 37-4 (90%) I know it's good
thx
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