1. #71
    on3
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    so NYI is around a -300 favorite, do you have any figures on playing the ML when PL is over -200?

  2. #72
    Maxi_EV
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wallco99 View Post
    I only have the loss dates listed, wins were all 1 unit, so dates weren't critical to me when I was testing. I test systems for "whole season" production, not day-day. There really is no answer for that question. Even if I had a number for you, it wouldn't mean that it would never exceed that. We average 9 losses per season. When they happen is never the same. We could have all 9 early, then never see another one. Or go on a 100 game run then lose 9 of our next 10. I figure 9 losses on average, so have a bankroll large enough to cover the 9 losses happening as our first 9 games, which will never happen. Figure your bankroll and work backwards. Assume the average loss is 20 units, I believe it is lower, but it makes for easy math. I would need 180-200 units in my bankroll in case of disaster.

    If I average 9 losses per season, and I lost all 9 games up front, I would be down 180 units. This is an unbelievable worst case scenario.

    Now assume my starting bankroll was $10000. I would need to be equal to about 200 units so the 180 unit loss wouldn't have wiped me out (10000/200=50). If I started with 5000, my units would be 25.

    I would probably play $50 units in this case. I play more, but I am a higher risk player.
    Thanks buddy!

  3. #73
    Wallco99
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    Quote Originally Posted by on3 View Post
    so NYI is around a -300 favorite, do you have any figures on playing the ML when PL is over -200?
    Not yet, but I will see if I can find time to look into that. Pretty much any game in hockey -150 or lower is -200 or more on puck lines. That is the large majority of the games, so I will assume the losses would be a lot greater for us, since the P/L bets came in play quite often in my tests.
    Last edited by Wallco99; 10-25-11 at 09:54 PM.

  4. #74
    ko0l
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    Is Edmonton a play for thursday, against washington?

  5. #75
    Wallco99
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    Wallco NHL GOLD
    2011-12 System to date: 7-1 (fin. series)
    System profit/loss: -11.60 units(finished series)
    Current open series: 2 (-4.80 units)

    (10/25/11):
    #10 N.Y. Islanders (+1) (A) - Loss

    v1 Plays
    (A) 4-3
    (B) 1-0
    (C) 0-0

    v2 Plays
    (A) 1-2
    (B) 1-1
    (C) 0-1


    Games for (10/26/11):
    #9 Resumes (B) on 10/27/11
    #10 Resumes (B) on 10/27/11
    #11 Philadelphia @ Montreal (+1) v2 (A) (7:35 pm EDT)


    ** Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. We will always play the M/L on favorites and (-110) games, and always play the (+1) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1 1/2) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
    System rules & backtest can be found in posts #1 and #2.

  6. #76
    Wallco99
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    Yes

  7. #77
    alexknyc
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    At odds well over -200, even (A) losses will add up quickly.

  8. #78
    Wallco99
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    Quote Originally Posted by alexknyc View Post
    At odds well over -200, even (A) losses will add up quickly.
    No different than JM plays. Just that there are more of them. If it's too much, pick one version or the other. Plus, we will be on the M/L of these close line games a lot too. It won't always be -200. That is what I was trying to say earlier. If the average loss is approx. 20 units, than the average single bet line is around -176. Pretty close to JM NBA (buy 3 point lines) are for a three game chase. We are playing games with a higher probability of winning, therefore, the lines will not be in our favor usually.
    Last edited by Wallco99; 10-26-11 at 11:36 AM.

  9. #79
    peterpan19
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    what do u recommend as starting bankroll
    lets say if you have 1000 should u start with 10 as unit to win or 5 or ?

    GL

  10. #80
    YouHave2outs
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    Quote Originally Posted by peterpan19 View Post
    what do u recommend as starting bankroll lets say if you have 1000 should u start with 10 as unit to win or 5 or ? GL

    on the last page wallco recommended a bet size of $50 for a 10k roll. he also added that he'd size his bets slightly larger than this, but he is a higher risk player.

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 138 pts


  11. #81
    alexknyc
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wallco99 View Post
    No different than JM plays. Just that there are more of them. If it's too much, pick one version or the other. Plus, we will be on the M/L of these close line games a lot too. It won't always be -200. That is what I was trying to say earlier. If the average loss is approx. 20 units, than the average single bet line is around -176. Pretty close to JM NBA (buy 3 point lines) are for a three game chase. We are playing games with a higher probability of winning, therefore, the lines will not be in our favor usually.
    I understand. I may have to adjust my unit size for these bets.

  12. #82
    Wallco99
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    Quote Originally Posted by alexknyc View Post
    I understand. I may have to adjust my unit size for these bets.
    Definitely, at least until you get a feel for the system, any trends that may be found within the system, which is performing better v1 or v2, or until we have a decent chunk of the book's money, as where a loss will still leave us in the positive. I realized this last season when I was playing JM NHL. It had a great season, but there were times when we had a few open (B) and (C) bets. With the high juice, these can be larger amounts.
    This was only the second time since all my backtest was done that a team lost a series after a three game losing streak and starting with the third game. Next year I may just have to say skip the first three games in both versions. See how everything plays out. We still have way too small of a sample to judge anything or increase our bet size. Play safe for now, 0.5% units (or 1 unit of 200 as described earlier). You can always raise it later, but when you raise it too early and lose it, it is gone.
    Last edited by Wallco99; 10-26-11 at 05:47 PM.

  13. #83
    1gamer
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    CASH THE HABS

  14. #84
    knugen
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    Congrats, looks like some V1 plays tonight 

  15. #85
    Wallco99
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    Wallco NHL GOLD
    2011-12 System to date: 8-1 (fin. series)
    System profit/loss: -10.60 units(finished series)
    Current open series: 2 (-4.80 units)

    (10/26/11):
    #11 Montreal (+1) v2 (A) - Win

    v1 Plays
    (A) 4-3
    (B) 1-0
    (C) 0-0

    v2 Plays
    (A) 2-2
    (B) 1-1
    (C) 0-1
    Losses: Montreal (-18.60 u)

    Games for (10/27/11):
    #9 Washington @ Edmonton (+1) (B) (9:35 pm EDT)
    #10 N.Y. Islanders (+1) @ Pittsburgh (B) (7:05 pm EDT)
    #12 Florida (M/L) @ Ottawa (A) (7:35 pm EDT)
    #13 Tampa Bay @ Nashville (M/L) (A) (8:05 pm EDT)
    #14 N.Y. Islanders (+1) @ Pittsburgh v2 (A) (7:05 pm EDT)


    ** Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. You may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and (-110) games, and always play the (+1) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
    System rules & backtest can be found in posts #1 and #2.
    Last edited by Wallco99; 10-27-11 at 08:15 PM.
    Points Awarded:

    soldier1047 gave Wallco99 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  16. #86
    knugen
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    Nashville have same ML odds as tampa, are thry still ML

    And Florida are fav at pinnacle, but u listed them at RL play??

  17. #87
    knugen
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    Oh saw now that its the final lines that count, i Will place
    My wagers tonight

  18. #88
    Wallco99
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    Quote Originally Posted by knugen View Post
    Nashville have same ML odds as tampa, are thry still ML

    And Florida are fav at pinnacle, but u listed them at RL play??
    Don't base the lines on your book, base them on who is favored or dog at Scoresandodds.com.
    This is what the backtesting is done by, and all results are formulated from. Read the paragraph at the bottom of results post. It explains these questions.
    Both games are currently at -115/+105.
    Last edited by Wallco99; 10-27-11 at 10:49 AM.

  19. #89
    Wallco99
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    Both games are at -110. Keep an eye on these two. We may be on the cheapest possible M/L or the most expensive P/L tonight.

  20. #90
    Wallco99
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    It's looking like Florida will be a M/L play tonight. Unless something changes in the next 9 minutes.

  21. #91
    Wallco99
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    Florida closed at a M/L play for 10/27/11. My earlier post has been corrected for this.
    Last edited by Wallco99; 10-27-11 at 08:14 PM.

  22. #92
    knugen
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    Florida were dogs when i went to bed, glad i took them on RL

  23. #93
    honeyeater
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    test

  24. #94
    knugen
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    Really good night, looks like some nice plays tonight also 

  25. #95
    roile
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    Just a quick Q:
    In the V2 system description it reads: ' you will bet on that team to get a WIN in one of their next three games' That means to me to score more goals than their opponent
    On the other hand the warning at the bottom of the posts is saying: 'We will always play the M/L on favorites and (-110) games, and always play the (+1) if the team we are betting on is a dog' So if a v2 team is a dog (which they are likely to be) we need to use the puck line. The 10/26 Montreal play suggests this also when you played the puckline (however it was a huge win for the Habs.)
    So after all, is the original description not valid in this question? What shall we play if a V2 team is underdog?

  26. #96
    Wallco99
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    Win being a favorite outright or win being a dog, losing by no more than one. Don.t make it complicated. If our team is getting +1 1/2 and they lose by one goal, we WIN the bet, that is the whole point of the 1 1/2 goals.


    ** Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. You may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and (-110) games, and always play the (+1) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
    System rules & backtest can be found in posts #1 and #2
    Last edited by Wallco99; 10-28-11 at 07:16 AM.

  27. #97
    Wallco99
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    Wallco NHL GOLD
    2011-12 System to date: 12-1 (fin. series)
    System profit/loss: -6.60 units(finished series)
    Current open series: 1 (-1.10 units)

    (10/27/11):

    # 9 Edmonton (+1) (B) - Win
    #10 N.Y. Islanders (+1) (B) - Win
    #12 Florida (M/L) (A) - Loss
    #13 Nashville (M/L) (A) - Win
    #14 N.Y. Islanders (+1)v2 (A) - Win

    v1 Plays
    (A) 5-4
    (B) 3-0
    (C) 0-0

    v2 Plays
    (A) 3-2
    (B) 1-1
    (C) 0-1
    Losses: Montreal (-18.60 u)

    Games for (10/28/11):
    #12 Resumes (B) on 10/29/11
    #15 St. Louis @ Calgary (M/L) (A) (9:05 pm EDT)
    #16 San Jose @ Detroit (M/L) (A) (7:35 pm EDT)
    #17 Edmonton @ Colorado (M/L) (A) (9:05 pm EDT)



    ** Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. You may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and (-110) games, and always play the (+1) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
    System rules & backtest can be found in posts #1 and #2.
    Points Awarded:

    Maxi_EV gave Wallco99 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    bauerranch gave Wallco99 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  28. #98
    Smails
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    Should there also be a play on Carolina under the v2 system? They have lost 3 straight and play Chicago tonight.

    edit: OK, I think I see why they are not a play. The first game of their losing streak they were the dog and only lost by a goal - so they covered the 1 1/2 goal spread. They lost the next 2 as a favorite, so they could be a play if they lose tonight and don't cover.

    Am I looking at this the right way?
    Last edited by Smails; 10-28-11 at 09:08 AM.

  29. #99
    Wallco99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smails View Post
    Should there also be a play on Carolina under the v2 system? They have lost 3 straight and play Chicago tonight.

    edit: OK, I think I see why they are not a play. The first game of their losing streak they were the dog and only lost by a goal - so they covered the 1 1/2 goal spread. They lost the next 2 as a favorite, so they could be a play if they lose tonight and don't cover.

    Am I looking at this the right way?
    That is correct.

  30. #100
    Wallco99
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    Wallco NHL GOLD
    2011-12 System to date: 13-1 (fin. series)
    System profit/loss: -5.60 units (finished series)
    Current open series: 3 (-4.10 units)

    (10/28/11):
    #15 Calgary (M/L) (A) - Win
    #16 Detroit (M/L) (A) - Loss
    #17 Colorado (M/L) (A) - Loss

    v1 Plays
    (A) 6-6
    (B) 3-0
    (C) 0-0

    v2 Plays
    (A) 3-2
    (B) 1-1
    (C) 0-1
    Losses: Montreal (-18.60 u)

    Games for (10/29/11):
    #12 Ottawa @ N.Y. Rangers (M/L) (B) (3:05 pm EDT)
    #16 San Jose @ N.Y. Islanders (+1) (B) (7:05 pm EDT)
    #17 Resumes (B) on 10/30/11
    #18 Detroit (M/L) @ Minnesota v2 (A) (8:05 pm EDT)


    ** Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. You may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and (-110) games, and always play the (+1) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
    System rules & backtest can be found in posts #1 and #2.
    Last edited by Wallco99; 10-29-11 at 11:17 AM.

  31. #101
    Wallco99
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    The Detroit lines are not out yet. When they become available, I will fill in the blank spot next to Detroit.

  32. #102
    GGPLAYER
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    Checking in for the first time. Hard to believe baseball finally ended last night. Who ever thought a month ago that St. Louis was going to add another flag to their titles?! Crazy. Well I typically don't bet hockey but no NBA has me doing nothing all week betting wise. Just saw your link in the other thread and thought I would check it out. Hope it stays "drama free" in here.

  33. #103
    Wallco99
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    Quote Originally Posted by GGPLAYER View Post
    Checking in for the first time. Hard to believe baseball finally ended last night. Who ever thought a month ago that St. Louis was going to add another flag to their titles?! Crazy. Well I typically don't bet hockey but no NBA has me doing nothing all week betting wise. Just saw your link in the other thread and thought I would check it out. Hope it stays "drama free" in here.
    Me too. Good to hear from you again. I made the most money on JM NHL last year of all the systems I played. So I figured I would try to find something even better. Hopefully I have.

  34. #104
    Maxi_EV
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    Editing a mistake
    Last edited by Maxi_EV; 10-29-11 at 01:08 PM.

  35. #105
    Wallco99
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    Wallco NHL GOLD
    2011-12 System to date: 14-1 (fin. series)
    System profit/loss: -4.60 units (fin. series)
    Current open series: 3 (-7.77 units)

    (10/29/11):
    #12 N.Y. Rangers (M/L) (B) - Loss
    #16 N.Y. Islanders (+1) (B) - Win
    #18 Detroit (M/L) v2 (A) - Loss

    v1 Plays
    (A) 6-6
    (B) 4-1
    (C) 0-0

    v2 Plays
    (A) 3-3
    (B) 1-1
    (C) 0-1
    Losses: Montreal (-18.60 u)


    Games for (10/30/11):
    #12 Toronto (M/L) @ Ottawa (C) (7:35 pm EDT)
    #17 St. Louis (M/L) @ Edmonton (B) (8:05 pm EDT)
    #18 Resumes v2 (B) on 11/1/11


    ** Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. You may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and (-110) games, and always play the (+1) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
    System rules & backtest can be found in posts #1 and #2.
    Last edited by Wallco99; 10-30-11 at 04:30 PM.
    Points Awarded:

    Maxi_EV gave Wallco99 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


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