kcavas Under 6.0/6.5 Chase System (+283 Units So Far In 2013/2014)

[HockeyRocks]

Every game is a play, always!

tsimmns - Good to have you on board, your unit size (.50 per team) looks good. I like small units relative to bankroll for this system, because of the juice.

Yes, i do play every game, then double up on the chase games. Do i understand thats the way to play your system?

[tsimmns]

I don't think he doubles up on chase games from my viewpoint. Looks like the chase game is 1unit (in my case) .50 cents per team. In the chase game it appears you bet the unit of 1 dollar or whatever to win your unit and add the .50 cents to it in my case. So since the Islanders/Penguins game went over tonight it looks like the Penguins/Canadiens game tomorrow will be 1 bet plus the .50 cents to the game. So if the line is -220 for under 6.5 goals then I will bet 2.20 + .50 for the chase.

[tsimmns]

Not good tonight. Looks like another game will be causing another chase tomorrow with the flames and panthers.

[Alonsovic]

Example

NYR/NJD Under 6.5, -200

Bet to win 1 unit PER team. $15 for NYR and $15 for NJD. So you'd bet $60 to win $30.

If win - great. Move onto the next game. If lose, attribute $30 of loss to NYR, 30 to NJD.

Next game....

NJD/MON Under 6.5, Odds -150. You take the $30 you lost previous + 15 for unit chase for NJD + 15 for unit chase for Montreal + X units if Montreal lost their previous game. In this scenario, assuming Montreal won their last game, you would bet to win $60, so you'd bet $90.

If you win - great, next game. If you lose, $45 per team, etc etc

Hi.

I don't understand why are you betting 1 unit per team, because betting both teams, you are always losing money.


Using the example of today's Ottawa Senators/Detroit Red Wings we have these 2 situations:

Unit = 10$
OTT/DET Under 6.5, -210 -> Bet 21$ to get 31$ (10$ profit).
$10 for OTT +115
$10 for DET -135


- Win the Under
Final: 0-2, so you win the Under, you win the bet of Detroit, but you lose the bet of Ottawa.
Total bet: 21 + 10 + 10 = 41$
Total win: 31 + 17.40 = 48.40$
Profit: 7.40$

- Lose the Under
Final: 5-4, so you lose the Under, you win the bet of Ottawa, but you lose the bet of Detroit.
Total bet: 21 + 10 + 10 = 41$
Total win: 21.50$
Profit: -19.50$


So, when you win the Under, you can't get the 1 Unit profit because you lose money betting both teams.
And when you lose the Under, you also lose more money because of the 2-teams bet.

Did I miss something ??

[Kababayan]

Where'd ya all go? Not on the Doc.

I'm still playing. The system is so simple that there isn't a need to come to the forum to check plays everyday. I check this post occasionally to see if there has been anything new going on. This week the system has been down a bit, depending on when you began. It's down around 25 units this week, with some open chases pending, however I'm still up around 20 units for the past two weeks. I was going to look into the idea of chasing both over and under alternative lines. I don't know, however, if my book will allow that.

[tsimmns]

I don't think one unit is being bet per team. The way I understand if you have 2 teams playing in a chase game against each other.

You A. Bet the money to get the unit. In this case you have the Senators and Red Wings at -185 for under 6.5 goals. So you bet $1.85 in my situation and then divide what you bet the past game on the Senators and do the same for the Red Wings. For example if it was -160 on each of the past two games you would have an additions 80 cents from the Red Wings and 80 cents for the Senators. In this case you would would bet the 1.85 + .80 +.80.

This is just my understanding of the system so far. I just started so I am going off all games as of yesterday.

You had the Islanders Penguins Panthers Flames Blue Jackets Canucks all getting into chase games.

Islanders play the Flyers. The line at -6.5 goals scored is -185. So I am going to bet 1.85 to win 1 unit and then take the -160(1.60) I bet on their game last night, divide it by 2, and add the .80 cents to this game. Which makes the total bet 2.65

[tsimmns]

If my odds are off above or I am doing something wrong please correct me.

[Kababayan]

I don't think one unit is being bet per team. The way I understand if you have 2 teams playing in a chase game against each other.

You A. Bet the money to get the unit. In this case you have the Senators and Red Wings at -185 for under 6.5 goals. So you bet $1.85 in my situation and then divide what you bet the past game on the Senators and do the same for the Red Wings. For example if it was -160 on each of the past two games you would have an additions 80 cents from the Red Wings and 80 cents for the Senators. In this case you would would bet the 1.85 + .80 +.80.

This is just my understanding of the system so far. I just started so I am going off all games as of yesterday.

You had the Islanders Penguins Panthers Flames Blue Jackets Canucks all getting into chase games.

Islanders play the Flyers. The line at -6.5 goals scored is -185. So I am going to bet 1.85 to win 1 unit and then take the -160(1.60) I bet on their game last night, divide it by 2, and add the .80 cents to this game. Which makes the total bet 2.65

You are correct, however the original system calls to bet $1 per team, as opposed to $1 per game. So, it would be $2 per game. The goal is to win $1 per team, per chase. All games are in play, as 70% of all of the games go under the alternative lines. This is my second week in. The first week I was +47 and the second week (current week) I am down 24. There are quite a few open chases right now, and the juice is high, so I can reset everything and still be +23 over two weeks.

[tsimmns]

Right, I am just betting $1 per game is my units are .50 since I have a smaller bankroll. That is how I am taking it.

Edited to add: Actually not betting $1 per game, but to win $1 per game so .50 cents per team as opposed to the $1 you are since my bankroll is smaller

[tsimmns]

I think I might start mixing this up. As there is such high juice if a game is at 6 I might start going to 5.5 with a lot lower juice and see what plays out. Especially if I am in the middle of a so called chase and the lowest number is 6 instead of 6.5. I do like this system though and will track the progress.

[Kababayan]

I think I might start mixing this up. As there is such high juice if a game is at 6 I might start going to 5.5 with a lot lower juice and see what plays out. Especially if I am in the middle of a so called chase and the lowest number is 6 instead of 6.5. I do like this system though and will track the progress.

I'd like to see how this would work chase-betting both sides of the alternative lines. My book has O3.5 and U6.5. The juice is high, but chasing both may alleviate large losses when long streaks happen. I'll look into it a little more.

[Alonsovic]

Ok, I think now I understand the system.
Thanks for the explanation!

[HockeyRocks]

Tonights chase games would be Chicago, Detroit, Colorado, Montreal, NYI, Phoenix, Vancouver. Please correct me if i am wrong..

[jgabby]

Tonights chase games would be Chicago, Detroit, Colorado, Montreal, NYI, Phoenix, Vancouver. Please correct me if i am wrong..

We had 3 chases come through this afternoon already with Carolina, Winnipeg, and an extremely juiced Minnesota on their 3rd game in the chase. Tonight's chases are Ottawa (C), Detroit (B), New York I (D), Phoenix (D), Chicago (B), Vancouver (B), and Colorado (B). With all games being A plays, B means 2nd attempt, C means 3rd, and so forth. The Montreal - Washington game was a win last night so there is no need to chase them.

To clarify for people who still haven't been able to figure out the betting method, we are not betting on either team to win ever in this system. It is strictly a play on the Under buying the extra goal. Example with random teams:

12/1 - Anaheim vs. Los Angeles
We will play to win 1 unit on Anaheim for the game total to be under 6 or 6.5, taking the highest offered.
We will also play to win 1 unit on Los Angeles for the game total to be under the highest offered.
The line for U6.5 is -200 so we will be betting 4 units to win 2 units
Final Score: Anaheim 2 - Los Angeles 3
We win 2 units (1 unit for Anaheim, 1 unit for Los Angeles)
We are now a positive 1 unit on Anaheim and a positive 1 unit on Los Angeles

12/1 - San Jose vs. Phoenix
We will play to win 1 unit on San Jose for the game total to be under 6 or 6.5, taking the highest offered.
We will also play to win 1 unit on Phoenix for the game total to be under the highest offered.
The line for U6.5 is -200 so we will be betting 4 units to win 2 units
Final Score: San Jose 5 - Phoenix 3
We lose 4 units (-2 units for San Jose, -2 units for Phoenix)
We are now a negative 2 units on San Jose and a negative 2 units on Phoenix

12/2 - Anaheim vs. San Jose
We will play to win 1 unit on Anaheim for the game total to be under 6 or 6.5, taking the highest offered.
We will play to win 1 unit on San Jose for the game total to be under the highest offered.
We will play to win an additional 2 units on San Jose for the game total to be under the highest offered to chase our loss in the San Jose - Phoenix game.
We will play to win an additional 1 unit on San Jose for the game total to be under the highest offered to chase our lost profit in the San Jose - Phoenix game.
The line for U6.5 is -200 so we will be betting 10 units to win 5 units
Final Score: Anaheim 4 - San Jose 1
We win 5 units (1 unit for Anaheim, 4 units for San Jose)
We are now a positive 2 units on Anaheim and a positive 2 units on San Jose

12/2 - Los Angeles vs. Phoenix
We will play to win 1 unit on Los Angeles for the game total to be under 6 or 6.5, taking the highest offered.
We will play to win 1 unit on Phoenix for the game total to be under the highest offered.
We will play to win an additional 2 units on Phoenix for the game total to be under the highest offered to chase our loss in the San Jose - Phoenix game.
We will play to win an additional 1 unit on Phoenix for the game total to be under the highest offered to chase our lost profit in the San Jose - Phoenix game.
The line for U6.5 is -200 so we will be betting 10 units to win 5 units
Final Score: Los Angels 6 - Phoenix 1
We lose 10 units (-2 units for Los Angeles, -8 units for Phoenix)
We are now a negative 1 unit on Los Angeles and a negative 10 units on Phoenix

The next Phoenix game we will be betting to win 13 units. If we win, then we will be up 3 units on Phoenix which equals 1 unit per game. The system is designed to win 1 unit per team per game. With an unlimited bankroll and stopping the chases after they finish after 75 games to avoid chases running out after the year, theoretically you could win at least 2,250 units with some teams chasing past 75 games (1 unit * 30 teams * 75 games). This is a very juicy system as you can tell and your bankroll should be at least 200 units.

[kcava]

jgabby: Yes. Perfect! Thank you for explaining it.

[jgabby]

Thank you kcava for posting the system so everyone can make some extra money! Hopefully I was detailed enough so people don't have to continue asking questions on how to bet the system

[forsberg21]

What sites is everyone using to get these alternate U6.0 and U6.5 lines?

From reading the thread, I'm seeing:

5Dimes
Pinnacle

Are there any others?

[Alonsovic]

What sites is everyone using to get these alternate U6.0 and U6.5 lines?

From reading the thread, I'm seeing:

5Dimes
Pinnacle

Are there any others?

You also have those lines at Bet365.

[tsimmns]

So have I been following the system wrong so far? I have been betting to win $1.00 on the game, which would mean I winning $.50 cents on the each team. It appears I am on the system, just for less money than most of yall. So typically my bests have been around $1.80 or so to win $1.00 which would mean while most would bet $3.60 to win a dollar or whatever on each team I'm just winning less.

[tsimmns]

Also appears after reading the last post I made a few mistakes my second day chasing a team by not putting enough money on them in their chasing game. I will do some more research and will also, continue to see how this plays out taking reduced juice when the line is not 6.5. I will be taking 5.5 instead of taking the extra high juice and getting 6.

[tsimmns]

So with today's games there are no chase teams: so I will be betting $2.25 on the Senators/Hurricanes game to win 1 unit of $.50 cents per team with the line at under 6.5 goals and $1.65 on the Detroit/Buffalo game to win $.50 cents on each team with the under at 5.5 instead of 6 and the juice on 6 being -235. My logic is if it goes under 6 you are offering less juice and possibly losing less money. The only benefit of taking 6 is hoping for a push if it lands on 6.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Also appears after reading the last post I made a few mistakes my second day chasing a team by not putting enough money on them in their chasing game. I will do some more research and will also, continue to see how this plays out taking reduced juice when the line is not 6.5. I will be taking 5.5 instead of taking the extra high juice and getting 6.

I thought about this so I did a quick formula on my spreadsheet.
@5.5 O/U So far this year, your record is 258/200, 56.3%. If you play 6 @5.5 lines, your record would be 258/144/56p for 64.2%. Doing it your way, you're adding 56 losses. However, are the 200 losses @5.5 cheaper than 144 @6? Dunno.

edited for 6.5. 6.5 @5.5 is 314/144 68.6%

[BuckeyeKaptn]

I thought about this so I did a quick formula on my spreadsheet.
@5.5 O/U So far this year, your record is 258/200, 56.3%. If you play 6 @5.5 lines, your record would be 258/144/56p for 64.2%. Doing it your way, you're adding 56 losses. However, are the 200 losses @5.5 cheaper than 144 @6? Dunno.

edited for 6.5. 6.5 @5.5 is 314/144 68.6%

Thinking about this, and using a standard loss of -110 for 5.5, and -200 for 6...then your play is correct. However, if you have the chance for 6.5, take it, as you would be adding 56 wins that were pushes @ 6.

[kcava]

I thought about this so I did a quick formula on my spreadsheet.
@5.5 O/U So far this year, your record is 258/200, 56.3%. If you play 6 @5.5 lines, your record would be 258/144/56p for 64.2%. Doing it your way, you're adding 56 losses. However, are the 200 losses @5.5 cheaper than 144 @6? Dunno.

edited for 6.5. 6.5 @5.5 is 314/144 68.6%

What site did you use to check this? Seems like it could be of help.

[tsimmns]

Thinking about this, and using a standard loss of -110 for 5.5, and -200 for 6...then your play is correct. However, if you have the chance for 6.5, take it, as you would be adding 56 wins that were pushes @ 6.

I always have took 6.5 the past few days since starting this system. I just noticed the other day since some lines only offer 6 and not 6.5 I will take the 5.5 instead of the 6 since 6 would just offer a push. I don't know the results this would be. But I am working on tracking my results since I started on the 22 of Nov.

[tsimmns]

Today there are no chase games, so I will be placing the standard wager to win $1.00 or $.50 cents on each team.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

What site did you use to check this? Seems like it could be of help.

DeGen Gamble over on Covers forum, makes automated excel sheets that pull info from covers. I figured out a way to pull this year's also. Here's a post I made on a couple of other forums:

If you have 2007 excel or better, go to:


http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101371839&pa ge=3


post #58 and download the NHL spreadsheet. From this spreadsheet, you can download years worth of info. DeGen is awesome. It also has for NFL, NBA and MLB.

Because of all the spreadsheets on that forum, I was able to break down formulas etc, and basically, teach myself Excel.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Today there are no chase games, so I will be placing the standard wager to win $1.00 or $.50 cents on each team.

I'm not going to chase the teams. I'm going to split the losses and put them on the pairs of team that offer the best chance to win. For example: Dallas just didn't cover the other day. The next game vs Anaheim would be the next game in the chase. Dallas only hits under 6 52.6% of the time, Anaheim 63.6 and between them, 58.5%. That's not very good for high juice...especially when I can split that onto 2 games that have, respectively, 81.8% (Pitts 72% and Boston 90%) and 75.7% (NY Rangers 84%, Tampa Bay 67%) win right.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

		Under 6				Under 6.5
Anaheim		14	8	63.64%		18	8	69.23%
Boston		20	2	90.91%		21	2	91.30%
Buffalo		16	6	72.73%		18	6	75.00%
Calgary		8	9	47.06%		14	9	60.87%
Carolina		16	4	80.00%		19	4	82.61%
Chicago		11	9	55.00%		15	9	62.50%
Colorado		12	4	75.00%		18	4	81.82%
Columbus		13	8	61.90%		15	8	65.22%
Dallas		10	9	52.63%		13	9	59.09%
Detroit		12	8	60.00%		16	8	66.67%
Edmonton		11	9	55.00%		15	9	62.50%
Florida		15	8	65.22%		16	8	66.67%
Los Angeles		15	7	68.18%		17	7	70.83%
Minnesota		16	5	76.19%		19	5	79.17%
Montreal		18	5	78.26%		19	5	79.17%
Nashville		15	6	71.43%		17	6	73.91%
New Jersey		18	5	78.26%		18	5	78.26%
NY Islanders		9	14	39.13%		10	14	41.67%
NY Rangers		16	3	84.21%		20	3	86.96%
Ottawa		10	11	47.62%		12	11	52.17%
Philadelphia		16	5	76.19%		17	5	77.27%
Phoenix		8	12	40.00%		11	12	47.83%
Pittsburgh		16	6	72.73%		18	6	75.00%
San Jose		12	8	60.00%		15	8	65.22%
St. Louis		12	7	63.16%		15	7	68.18%
Tampa Bay		12	6	66.67%		17	6	73.91%
Toronto		14	5	73.68%		18	5	78.26%
Vancouver		18	5	78.26%		20	5	80.00%
Washington		13	9	59.09%		15	9	62.50%
Winnipeg		16	7	69.57%		18	7	72.00%
		412	210	66.2%		494	210	70.2%

[BuckeyeKaptn]

I uploaded to the sky, errr, cloud, the spreadsheet that I use to get my numbers. You can download it here:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZZVZYU0xLZ3lZQ0U/edit?usp=sharing

On IMPORTER tab...
Columns R to X are based on a system where you bet over on 5, under on 5.5. The percentages are based on that.
Columns AD to AJ are based on the Alt lines 6 and 6.5 under all games.
Columns AP to AW compare Alt lines 6 and 6.5 vs the under 5.5 (V,W,X)...NOT when the O/U line is at 5 (what Tsimmns was working out).

If you wish to have a spreadsheet similar to this, but previous years...see post #133. You'll notice it's the same. I just made this one 2013/14, which you can't get on the one on post #133.

[tsimmns]

Haven't been keeping track and wondering the chase games tonight? I know the past two days have been nice with only 1 lose. Here's for hoping to keep rolling tonight.

[HockeyRocks]

If i am correct, the chase games tonight would be: Jackets/Leafs, Flyers/Panthers and Wild/Blues..

[Kababayan]

What sites is everyone using to get these alternate U6.0 and U6.5 lines?

From reading the thread, I'm seeing:

5Dimes
Pinnacle

Are there any others?

Bookmaker offers them, as well. Also, if I have a really good winning day, I don't chase the losing games. That way it will keep the amount that I have to wager lower. For example, yesterday we went 8-1 (or something like that), so I will not be chasing the losing Pittsburgh game. I am happy with the 10 units that I won. I may be giving up some units, but it may keep me from having to make wagers that get too high.

[HockeyRocks]

Hope everyone's on the unders....Lets getem boys!!!!

[Kababayan]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!