1. #1
    VegasVic
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    2008-09 Season Point Total Predictions

    Assessing my season point totals this year has two themes that helped lead to itĎs conclusion. Both revolve around the fact that there will be 80% more inter-conference games played by all teams this year as opposed to last.

    22% of every teamís schedule will now be played outside of their own conference. In my eyes this is a decided advantage for the Western Conference as they have proven to be the stronger of the two. This is evidenced by the fact they have out pointing the Eastern Conference in each of the last three seasons. They have averaged 14 points more each year since the lockout. This year that number should grow even more with the addition of more games.

    The other theory I have dealing with games played between conferences is they tend not to go to OT with the regularity of games played within oneís conference or certainly within oneís own division. Needless to say that all division games are played much closer to vest and tend to make up the bulk of every teamís three point games. Games played outside the conference tend to be more open with fewer ending up with a extra five minutes.

    All this means less points will be tallied as a whole. For instance in 2005-06 and 2006-07 the league tallied 2741 points. By no coincidence there was exactly 281 OT games played for both years. Last season OT games dropped by nine to 272 and of course the leagueís point total did as well to 2732. This year I believe the OT games will drop again and I set my number at 261. This leads me to my prediction that the NHL will have 2721 points recorded.

    Now itís just a matter of figuring out how those 2721 points will be divided. Last year the Western Conference was 22 points better than the east. This year I think that number grows exponentially to 73 points. A bold projection but one I feel is justified when you look at the unbalanced talent level of the two conferences as a whole.

    I break down those 2721 points into 1324 for the east and 1397 for the west.

    My recommendations when books finally come out with their numbers is to look for unders in the east and overs in the west.



    Atlantic
    Pittsburgh--------------103
    Philadelphia--------------96
    New Jersey--------------91
    NY Rangers--------------90
    NY Islanders-------------65

    Northeast
    Montreal----------------103
    Buffalo------------------90
    Ottawa------------------90
    Boston------------------89
    Toronto-----------------79

    Southeast
    Washington-------------102
    Tampa Bay--------------86
    Carolina-----------------86
    Florida------------------83
    Atlanta-----------------71



    Central
    Detroit-----------------113
    Chicago-----------------91
    Columbus----------------90
    Nashville-----------------83
    St Louis-----------------82

    Northwest
    Edmonton---------------95
    Calgary-----------------93
    Vancouver--------------93
    Minnesota---------------90
    Colorado----------------89

    Pacific
    Anaheim----------------105
    San Jose---------------104
    Dallas------------------101
    Phoenix-----------------89
    Los Angeles-------------79

  2. #2
    element1286
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    I really don't like Anaheim's team at all, getting older and slower, division is catching up with a young/talented Dallas team, Phoenix and LA improving, and San Jose still being in the hunt.

  3. #3
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    i think montreal played over there heads last year, they'll make the playoff but idon't see themg getting 100 points this year, Adding Tangauy and Lang??? who knows if that willl make them better, plus Carey Price will be the go to guy all year now with Huet gone, he might slip given the fulltime job
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  4. #4
    betplom
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    Quote Originally Posted by element1286 View Post
    I really don't like Anaheim's team at all, getting older and slower, division is catching up with a young/talented Dallas team, Phoenix and LA improving, and San Jose still being in the hunt.
    I agree 100%, Anaheim was GREAT fade material last season, they'll only get worse, plus there is alot of distraction in the Ducks system right now, owner having legal problems, a GM that wants to leave, players semi-retired etc.

    They couldn't score goals last year and were hard to watch, plus they took alot of really undisciplined penalties, the Ducks best days are definitely behind them.

  5. #5
    VegasVic
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    Quote Originally Posted by element1286 View Post
    I really don't like Anaheim's team at all, getting older and slower, division is catching up with a young/talented Dallas team, Phoenix and LA improving, and San Jose still being in the hunt.
    Consider their record after they got Niedermayer and Selanne back. Consider the Stanley Cup hangover. Perry, Getzlaf, Kunitz..Bobby Ryan. To me this team has the perfect blend of young and experience.

    I do agree that the talent pool is very tight in the Pacific.

  6. #6
    VegasVic
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    Quote Originally Posted by betplom View Post
    I agree 100%, Anaheim was GREAT fade material last season, they'll only get worse, plus there is alot of distraction in the Ducks system right now, owner having legal problems, a GM that wants to leave, players semi-retired etc.

    They couldn't score goals last year and were hard to watch, plus they took alot of really undisciplined penalties, the Ducks best days are definitely behind them.
    Agree their scoring was limited and they were a dreadful team to watch last year. I can't tell you how many times I fell asleep watching these guys last year. But any team that drops as far as they did from the previous season is bound to bounce back the next.

  7. #7
    bigboydan
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    You are giving me credit to the Blackhawks than I am Mr.Vic. I still feel they are about another year away from making a real impact.

    SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005


  8. #8
    VegasVic
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigboydan View Post
    You are giving me credit to the Blackhawks than I am Mr.Vic. I still feel they are about another year away from making a real impact.
    Whatís not to like with this team Dan? I have them pegged for 91 points and being a eight seed in the playoffs. Not a far stretch. Last year they finished with 88 and missed the post season by 3 points.

    They lost no one of any huge significance in the off season, (Jason Williams being somewhat of a loss) and picked up one of the best puck moving defensemen in the league, (Brian Campbell). They own a good blueline led by him, Duncan Keith, and Brent Seabrook.

    Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews are absolute studs and should only improve on the 45 combined goals they got last year as rookies. Patrick SharpÖDustin ByfuglienÖand if Martin Havlat can stay healthy for at least 70 games? Look out.

    And the more I think about it perhaps having both Critobal Huet AND Khabibulin isnít such a bad thing after all. Sure itís a big cap hit but the competition could be enough to fire up both of these tenders to play at their best. It certainly did with Huet last year as he just took the job away from Kolzig. If nothing else itís one hell of a insurance policy and Iíve always said that a team needs two quality goalies to win a cup.

    The new ownership, renewed fan interest, New Yearís game at Wrigley, games back on TV in ChiTown. Canít you just feel the vibe? 91 points might just be low.

  9. #9
    bigboydan
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    It might be new ownership as the former owner is now deceased, however it's still the same front office who always finds a way to screw up matters.

    SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005


  10. #10
    element1286
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    The blackhawks blueline is very dangerous, those guys can skate, move the puck, and play defense.

  11. #11
    SlickFazzer
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    Always good to see some good hockey analysis.

  12. #12
    aznbluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasVic View Post
    Assessing my season point totals this year has two themes that helped lead to itĎs conclusion. Both revolve around the fact that there will be 80% more inter-conference games played by all teams this year as opposed to last.

    22% of every teamís schedule will now be played outside of their own conference. In my eyes this is a decided advantage for the Western Conference as they have proven to be the stronger of the two. This is evidenced by the fact they have out pointing the Eastern Conference in each of the last three seasons. They have averaged 14 points more each year since the lockout. This year that number should grow even more with the addition of more games.

    The other theory I have dealing with games played between conferences is they tend not to go to OT with the regularity of games played within oneís conference or certainly within oneís own division. Needless to say that all division games are played much closer to vest and tend to make up the bulk of every teamís three point games. Games played outside the conference tend to be more open with fewer ending up with a extra five minutes.

    All this means less points will be tallied as a whole. For instance in 2005-06 and 2006-07 the league tallied 2741 points. By no coincidence there was exactly 281 OT games played for both years. Last season OT games dropped by nine to 272 and of course the leagueís point total did as well to 2732. This year I believe the OT games will drop again and I set my number at 261. This leads me to my prediction that the NHL will have 2721 points recorded.

    Now itís just a matter of figuring out how those 2721 points will be divided. Last year the Western Conference was 22 points better than the east. This year I think that number grows exponentially to 73 points. A bold projection but one I feel is justified when you look at the unbalanced talent level of the two conferences as a whole.

    I break down those 2721 points into 1324 for the east and 1397 for the west.

    My recommendations when books finally come out with their numbers is to look for unders in the east and overs in the west.



    Atlantic
    Pittsburgh--------------99, Still a contender during the playoffs but they lost a lot of depth that is needed to rack up points during the regular season. Probably has a better shot at winning the cup than most 100+ point teams.
    Philadelphia--------------105, very complete team. Their top 9 wingers could all be 30+ goal scorers some day. The return of Gagne could be what puts them over the top offensively. This is a perennial all-star and a Richard Trophy threat every year. They signed Briere with the sole intent of playing him with Gagne but it didnt happen last year due to the injury. Their D is solid and among the best in the league (I'd say top 5 even with Pylon Hatcher).
    New Jersey--------------94, Only threaten the playoffs due to Brodeur. Nothing's new here. Borderline lottery team on paper but Brodeur wins games. Parise/Martin are really their only hope this year. Elias is in the twilight of his career. Madden is great at what he does but it's more playoff suited than to help NJ rack up points in the regular season.
    NY Rangers--------------90 Big questionmark. Cant predict how these guys will do. Logic tells me that they should be among the best in the East but a gut feeling just tells me that there is not going to be any chemistry. Zherdev/Naslund both fit this bill. Redden is overrated. Marc Staal is turning into a solid #2 Dman and Lundqvist wins games but something just tells me that this is going to be a bad year for them.
    NY Islanders-------------77, No hope for this season. Not even too many brightspots for the future outside Okposo.

    Northeast
    Montreal----------------109, ready to become the class of the east. Just play a really complete team game despite the lack of a true superstar. If Kovalev can repeat last years revival and the Kosyns/Price can progress as expected (or even not regress) then you can assume that Montreal will be atop the standings in the East. Just so much team depth and thats what you need to rack up points in the regular season.
    Buffalo------------------99, among the best forward balance in the league. Vanek will need to begin to live up to that contract and there is no reason why Buffalo cannot return to the form they were at two seasons ago. Roy and Pominville have shown that they are both worthy of being #1's and Max still has limited gamebreaking abilities. Hecht is solid. Stafford is developing well. If Connolly can stay healthy Buff can role 3 solid (maybe 4) offensive lines)
    Ottawa------------------89, overrated and in tough to make the playoffs. Outside the big 3 and Fisher there is not much offensive depth. Not a big believer in Foligno as a top 6 forward just yet. Their D is below average as well. Phillips/Volchenkov are as good as it gets but then it really tails off from there. I see the upside in Lee but it'll take a while. I'm a huge Smith fan but he's just about done.
    Boston------------------96, underrated but not ready to take the next step yet
    Toronto-----------------67, among or the worst team in the league Ponikarovsky - Grabovski - Antropov / Hagman - Steen - Kulemin just dont cut it for top 2 lines. I really dont even feel like either is a 2nd line. Their D is pretty poor as well. Elite top 2 like Ottawa but major drop off. Toskala is probably a little underrated. There's not much that separates him from Nabokov (although Nabby is waaaaay overrated). If they expect Schenn to step in an become an elite shutdown Dman right away, Leaf Nation is dreaming


    Southeast
    Washington-------------102 Love this team. Their time is here. Great mix of explosive youth and veteran leadership (Fedorov is great for the Russians). Alzner will take the step this year and be eased into the NHL. I expect some soft minutes and Boudreau will probably shelter him at the beginning and then give him more responsibilities in the 2nd half of the season. Semin is a threat for 45 goals and Ovechkin can flirt wil 70. Nylander (I even underrated him, thought he was a product of teammates) is a great offensive player and he should be healthy this year. Expect Nylander-Ovechkin and Backstrom-Semin. The big ? is going to be Theodore in net. Johnson is serviceable but they really need Theodore to take steps back to 03 form.
    Tampa Bay--------------79, got a lot better but are quickly becoming overrated. They've hyped Stamkos up to be the "next one" which, sorry, he isnt even close to being. I'd take Toews before I take Stamkos on my team. Stamkos will be a slightly better version of Pat Kane that plays center. Expect 70-75 points, not the 90+ he's being hyped up for. He's not playing with Vinny and Marty. Their D arguably got worse. Boyle, say what you want, ate up 30+ minutes for them while heathly. Who's ready to take on that responsibility? Meszaros? Seriously? Ranger? They already had one of the worst D's/Goaltending in the league. Ramo impressed me last year but he'll be left exposed this year again. This kid will never get a fair shot because he plays for Tampa.
    Carolina-----------------95, Pitkanen could be their godsend (their season rides on him). Staal is their franchise player but Pitkanen and Ward are going to be the differences between winning and losing on most nights. I'm not a big Ward fan, in fact I think he sucks. Like bottom tier of goalies in the league in a class with Roli/Kolzig/etc. When Pitkanen has things going for him he dominates games. He controls them like a Scott Neidermayer but he has a size closer to Pronger. If he could develop a physical game (which is almost non-existant, not going to lie) and get his head on straight he could really become a top tier Dman in the league.
    Florida------------------69, expect them to be among the worst in the league. Traded away their captain and best offensive player. Their D-core is young and solid but not top 10 yet. Their offense is probably bottom tier. Yes Horton can score, Weiss is ok, Matthias could play great as a rook, etc but on paper its not better than 20+ teams in the league.
    Atlanta-----------------76, I always want to see them do better but they never do. This team just plain sucks. I love Kovalchuk but he has no help. Bogosian might play this year but he'll look exposed as all 18yr old rook Dmen do. Not even EJ made the step at 18 and he's the closest thing to a generational Dman.



    Central
    Detroit-----------------121, I can't see them losing 20 games. Babcock said he'll start the year with: Holmstrom-Dats-Hossa/Franzen-Zett-Hudler(why Hudler but whatever) giving them 2 legit scoring lines that are also elite checking lines. Throw in a 3rd line that will feature Draper and Filppula and Sammy (basically a lesser version of the first 2 lines) and Babcock can role 3 solid lines at any point in a game. Throw in the best Dman of our generation and it doesnt matter how badly Osbad sucks. Detroit dominates games.
    Chicago-----------------94, Signing Huet and a healty Toews should make Chicago a playoff team. Toews is the real deal. Probably the best young player outside Ovie/Sid/Geno (maybe Phaneuf). Kane is also living up to that 1st overall selection with a solid rook campaign. Their D is nothing to write home about and Brian Campbell is just about as overrated as they come but its still solid. Probably upper 50% of the league. Their $13 million goaltending duo is probably top 65% in the league which is pretty bad considering the cost but still the talent is there, just overpaid. Patrick Sharp might be the difference maker that no one knows about. Very impressive player - the complete package. Can throw him out there in any situation.
    Columbus----------------79, losing their #2 forward wasn't replaced by Huselius. Voracek is going to be a star but 1 line is not going to be enough to carry this team. Filatov is most likely playing Junior this year. Nash is just about the most overrated forward in the league and Huselius is too inconsistent. Zherdev out/Juice in was basically the same player. Their D has ?question marks? although Hejda is turning into a solid-elite shut down Dman. Klesla has some hype. Leclaire is also vastly overrated. This guy isnt even good.
    Nashville-----------------76, start the rebuild, they don't have the core apart from Weber. This team sucks. I've always felt that yet they always surprise me. This year will probably be different though as they will likely suck bad. The Radulov debacle robs them of their only forward with any sort of star power. Ellis is not the answer in net
    St Louis-----------------85, One of the best young cores, Brad Boyes (no one knows this guy) could flirt with 50 goals as well. EJ will be taking on 22+ minutes/night this year and will become a difference maker on most nights. Bringing in a lot of young talent but won't be ready this year.

    Northwest
    Edmonton---------------95
    Calgary-----------------93
    Vancouver--------------93
    Minnesota---------------90
    Colorado----------------89
    I like your NW, I'm an Oiler fan but I still think Calgary will take the division. I would write too much in this section


    Pacific
    Anaheim----------------94, one of the most overrated teams in the league. Giguere is not good, Pronger was average-mediocre last season, not even by his standards but an actual average #3 D-man. Getz/Perry are the hope of this team and a lot depends on Bobby Ryan's year. 1 more year of Selanne is not the answer.
    San Jose---------------104
    Dallas------------------111, the second best team in the NHL in my books. No one flashy or big named makes them the most underrated team in the league. Lehtonen still ranks among the best checking wingers of all time. Modano is a serviceable 3rd line center. Morrow is the definition of captain. A healthy Zubov (Top 5 Dman, arguably top 3 if healthy) and Boucher will make that PP lights out. Throw in a developing Niskanen and Dallas has a Top 3 Defense in the NHL (Behind Detroit/Montreal(Anaheim)). They also added Rookie Fabian Brunnstrom who was "the best player not in the NHL" last year but I'm not completely sold on him
    Phoenix-----------------91, Watch out for Phoenix, their time is almost here. They will contend for a playoff spot this year and probably squeek in. Addition of Jokinen to center Doan (who is really underrated) along with the young forward core could be enough to push them over the edge. Only question now is their D.
    Los Angeles-------------74, Not ready and not even close. Very good solid young D-core but they will be exposed again this year. Bernier may or may not make the step this year and will be a stud in the future but not ready yet. Very good young Forward group too but they need to learn more 2-way responsibility before LA contends for the playoffs.
    My take

  13. #13
    VegasVic
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    First let me say thanks for your well thought out opinions. I appreciate your input. I agree with most of your assessments but offer these few thoughts.

    I could easily see my Pittsburgh/Philadelphia predictions reversed. But I am a believer in Stanley Cup hangovers and one team being more hungry than the next. Flyers could easily fit into the hungrier team category. I do agree Philly has the depth over Pittsburgh., (at forward), but the edge in net, (team defense), goes to the Pens.

    I’m surprised at your high expectations for Boston, (at least to the point totals you have). In my mind they overachieved last year and a repeat of that would take a huge year out of Bergeron and they need to find a way to increase on their 2.5 GPG average from last season. They never addressed their most pressing needs for a puck moving dman and help on a porous PK, (ranked 28th). 96 points is very optimistic.

    After much second guessing on my original point predictions, if I could change one thing, I would drop Anaheim closer to your prognostication of 94 and raise San Jose a touch higher. I hope your right about Dallas as I have a large investment on them to win it all but 111 points sounds a touch high.

  14. #14
    Lippsman
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    As long as Philly stays off the IR and they finally use a little common sense about plowing guys into the boards from, behind they will be a force to reckon with.

    Also really liking the Caps

  15. #15
    TodaysAction
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasVic View Post
    Assessing my season point totals this year has two themes that helped lead to itĎs conclusion. Both revolve around the fact that there will be 80% more inter-conference games played by all teams this year as opposed to last.

    22% of every teamís schedule will now be played outside of their own conference. In my eyes this is a decided advantage for the Western Conference as they have proven to be the stronger of the two. This is evidenced by the fact they have out pointing the Eastern Conference in each of the last three seasons. They have averaged 14 points more each year since the lockout. This year that number should grow even more with the addition of more games.

    The other theory I have dealing with games played between conferences is they tend not to go to OT with the regularity of games played within oneís conference or certainly within oneís own division. Needless to say that all division games are played much closer to vest and tend to make up the bulk of every teamís three point games. Games played outside the conference tend to be more open with fewer ending up with a extra five minutes.

    All this means less points will be tallied as a whole. For instance in 2005-06 and 2006-07 the league tallied 2741 points. By no coincidence there was exactly 281 OT games played for both years. Last season OT games dropped by nine to 272 and of course the leagueís point total did as well to 2732. This year I believe the OT games will drop again and I set my number at 261. This leads me to my prediction that the NHL will have 2721 points recorded.

    Now itís just a matter of figuring out how those 2721 points will be divided. Last year the Western Conference was 22 points better than the east. This year I think that number grows exponentially to 73 points. A bold projection but one I feel is justified when you look at the unbalanced talent level of the two conferences as a whole.

    I break down those 2721 points into 1324 for the east and 1397 for the west.

    My recommendations when books finally come out with their numbers is to look for unders in the east and overs in the west.



    Atlantic
    Pittsburgh--------------103
    Philadelphia--------------96
    New Jersey--------------91
    NY Rangers--------------90
    NY Islanders-------------65

    Northeast
    Montreal----------------103
    Buffalo------------------90
    Ottawa------------------90
    Boston------------------89
    Toronto-----------------79

    Southeast
    Washington-------------102
    Tampa Bay--------------86
    Carolina-----------------86
    Florida------------------83
    Atlanta-----------------71



    Central
    Detroit-----------------113
    Chicago-----------------91
    Columbus----------------90
    Nashville-----------------83
    St Louis-----------------82

    Northwest
    Edmonton---------------95
    Calgary-----------------93
    Vancouver--------------93
    Minnesota---------------90
    Colorado----------------89

    Pacific
    Anaheim----------------105
    San Jose---------------104
    Dallas------------------101
    Phoenix-----------------89
    Los Angeles-------------79
    Very nice sir. Thank you and hope you cash `em all.

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