Assessing my season point totals this year has two themes that helped lead to it‘s conclusion. Both revolve around the fact that there will be 80% more inter-conference games played by all teams this year as opposed to last.
22% of every team’s schedule will now be played outside of their own conference. In my eyes this is a decided advantage for the Western Conference as they have proven to be the stronger of the two. This is evidenced by the fact they have out pointing the Eastern Conference in each of the last three seasons. They have averaged 14 points more each year since the lockout. This year that number should grow even more with the addition of more games.
The other theory I have dealing with games played between conferences is they tend not to go to OT with the regularity of games played within one’s conference or certainly within one’s own division. Needless to say that all division games are played much closer to vest and tend to make up the bulk of every team’s three point games. Games played outside the conference tend to be more open with fewer ending up with a extra five minutes.
All this means less points will be tallied as a whole. For instance in 2005-06 and 2006-07 the league tallied 2741 points. By no coincidence there was exactly 281 OT games played for both years. Last season OT games dropped by nine to 272 and of course the league’s point total did as well to 2732. This year I believe the OT games will drop again and I set my number at 261. This leads me to my prediction that the NHL will have 2721 points recorded.
Now it’s just a matter of figuring out how those 2721 points will be divided. Last year the Western Conference was 22 points better than the east. This year I think that number grows exponentially to 73 points. A bold projection but one I feel is justified when you look at the unbalanced talent level of the two conferences as a whole.
I break down those 2721 points into 1324 for the east and 1397 for the west.
My recommendations when books finally come out with their numbers is to look for unders in the east and overs in the west.
Atlantic
Pittsburgh--------------
99, Still a contender during the playoffs but they lost a lot of depth that is needed to rack up points during the regular season. Probably has a better shot at winning the cup than most 100+ point teams.
Philadelphia--------------
105, very complete team. Their top 9 wingers could all be 30+ goal scorers some day. The return of Gagne could be what puts them over the top offensively. This is a perennial all-star and a Richard Trophy threat every year. They signed Briere with the sole intent of playing him with Gagne but it didnt happen last year due to the injury. Their D is solid and among the best in the league (I'd say top 5 even with Pylon Hatcher).
New Jersey--------------
94, Only threaten the playoffs due to Brodeur. Nothing's new here. Borderline lottery team on paper but Brodeur wins games. Parise/Martin are really their only hope this year. Elias is in the twilight of his career. Madden is great at what he does but it's more playoff suited than to help NJ rack up points in the regular season.
NY Rangers--------------90
Big questionmark. Cant predict how these guys will do. Logic tells me that they should be among the best in the East but a gut feeling just tells me that there is not going to be any chemistry. Zherdev/Naslund both fit this bill. Redden is overrated. Marc Staal is turning into a solid #2 Dman and Lundqvist wins games but something just tells me that this is going to be a bad year for them.
NY Islanders-------------
77, No hope for this season. Not even too many brightspots for the future outside Okposo.
Northeast
Montreal----------------
109, ready to become the class of the east. Just play a really complete team game despite the lack of a true superstar. If Kovalev can repeat last years revival and the Kos
yns/Price can progress as expected (or even not regress) then you can assume that Montreal will be atop the standings in the East. Just so much team depth and thats what you need to rack up points in the regular season.
Buffalo------------------
99, among the best forward balance in the league. Vanek will need to begin to live up to that contract and there is no reason why Buffalo cannot return to the form they were at two seasons ago. Roy and Pominville have shown that they are both worthy of being #1's and Max still has limited gamebreaking abilities. Hecht is solid. Stafford is developing well. If Connolly can stay healthy Buff can role 3 solid (maybe 4) offensive lines)
Ottawa------------------
89, overrated and in tough to make the playoffs. Outside the big 3 and Fisher there is not much offensive depth. Not a big believer in Foligno as a top 6 forward just yet. Their D is below average as well. Phillips/Volchenkov are as good as it gets but then it really tails off from there. I see the upside in Lee but it'll take a while. I'm a huge Smith fan but he's just about done.
Boston------------------
96, underrated but not ready to take the next step yet
Toronto-----------------
67, among or the worst team in the league Ponikarovsky - Grabovski - Antropov / Hagman - Steen - Kulemin just dont cut it for top 2 lines. I really dont even feel like either is a 2nd line. Their D is pretty poor as well. Elite top 2 like Ottawa but major drop off. Toskala is probably a little underrated. There's not much that separates him from Nabokov (although Nabby is waaaaay overrated). If they expect Schenn to step in an become an elite shutdown Dman right away, Leaf Nation is dreaming
Southeast
Washington-------------102
Love this team. Their time is here. Great mix of explosive youth and veteran leadership (Fedorov is great for the Russians). Alzner will take the step this year and be eased into the NHL. I expect some soft minutes and Boudreau will probably shelter him at the beginning and then give him more responsibilities in the 2nd half of the season. Semin is a threat for 45 goals and Ovechkin can flirt wil 70. Nylander (I even underrated him, thought he was a product of teammates) is a great offensive player and he should be healthy this year. Expect Nylander-Ovechkin and Backstrom-Semin. The big ? is going to be Theodore in net. Johnson is serviceable but they really need Theodore to take steps back to 03 form.
Tampa Bay--------------
79, got a lot better but are quickly becoming overrated. They've hyped Stamkos up to be the "next one" which, sorry, he isnt even close to being. I'd take Toews before I take Stamkos on my team. Stamkos will be a slightly better version of Pat Kane that plays center. Expect 70-75 points, not the 90+ he's being hyped up for. He's not playing with Vinny and Marty. Their D arguably got worse. Boyle, say what you want, ate up 30+ minutes for them while heathly. Who's ready to take on that responsibility? Meszaros? Seriously? Ranger? They already had one of the worst D's/Goaltending in the league. Ramo impressed me last year but he'll be left exposed this year again. This kid will never get a fair shot because he plays for Tampa.
Carolina-----------------
95, Pitkanen could be their godsend (their season rides on him). Staal is their franchise player but Pitkanen and Ward are going to be the differences between winning and losing on most nights. I'm not a big Ward fan, in fact I think he sucks. Like bottom tier of goalies in the league in a class with Roli/Kolzig/etc. When Pitkanen has things going for him he dominates games. He controls them like a Scott Neidermayer but he has a size closer to Pronger. If he could develop a physical game (which is almost non-existant, not going to lie) and get his head on straight he could really become a top tier Dman in the league.
Florida------------------
69, expect them to be among the worst in the league. Traded away their captain and best offensive player. Their D-core is young and solid but not top 10 yet. Their offense is probably bottom tier. Yes Horton can score, Weiss is ok, Matthias could play great as a rook, etc but on paper its not better than 20+ teams in the league.
Atlanta-----------------
76, I always want to see them do better but they never do. This team just plain sucks. I love Kovalchuk but he has no help. Bogosian might play this year but he'll look exposed as all 18yr old rook Dmen do. Not even EJ made the step at 18 and he's the closest thing to a generational Dman.
Central
Detroit-----------------
121, I can't see them losing 20 games. Babcock said he'll start the year with: Holmstrom-Dats-Hossa/Franzen-Zett-Hudler(why Hudler but whatever) giving them 2 legit scoring lines that are also elite checking lines. Throw in a 3rd line that will feature Draper and Filppula and Sammy (basically a lesser version of the first 2 lines) and Babcock can role 3 solid lines at any point in a game. Throw in the best Dman of our generation and it doesnt matter how badly Osbad sucks. Detroit dominates games.
Chicago-----------------
94, Signing Huet and a healty Toews should make Chicago a playoff team. Toews is the real deal. Probably the best young player outside Ovie/Sid/Geno (maybe Phaneuf). Kane is also living up to that 1st overall selection with a solid rook campaign. Their D is nothing to write home about and Brian Campbell is just about as overrated as they come but its still solid. Probably upper 50% of the league. Their $13 million goaltending duo is probably top 65% in the league which is pretty bad considering the cost but still the talent is there, just overpaid. Patrick Sharp might be the difference maker that no one knows about. Very impressive player - the complete package. Can throw him out there in any situation.
Columbus----------------
79, losing their #2 forward wasn't replaced by Huselius. Voracek is going to be a star but 1 line is not going to be enough to carry this team. Filatov is most likely playing Junior this year. Nash is just about the most overrated forward in the league and Huselius is too inconsistent. Zherdev out/Juice in was basically the same player. Their D has ?question marks? although Hejda is turning into a solid-elite shut down Dman. Klesla has some hype. Leclaire is also vastly overrated. This guy isnt even good.
Nashville-----------------
76, start the rebuild, they don't have the core apart from Weber. This team sucks. I've always felt that yet they always surprise me. This year will probably be different though as they will likely suck bad. The Radulov debacle robs them of their only forward with any sort of star power. Ellis is not the answer in net
St Louis-----------------
85, One of the best young cores, Brad Boyes (no one knows this guy) could flirt with 50 goals as well. EJ will be taking on 22+ minutes/night this year and will become a difference maker on most nights. Bringing in a lot of young talent but won't be ready this year.
Northwest
Edmonton---------------95
Calgary-----------------93
Vancouver--------------93
Minnesota---------------90
Colorado----------------89
I like your NW, I'm an Oiler fan but I still think Calgary will take the division. I would write too much in this section
Pacific
Anaheim----------------
94, one of the most overrated teams in the league. Giguere is not good, Pronger was average-mediocre last season, not even by his standards but an actual average #3 D-man. Getz/Perry are the hope of this team and a lot depends on Bobby Ryan's year. 1 more year of Selanne is not the answer.
San Jose---------------104
Dallas------------------
111, the second best team in the NHL in my books. No one flashy or big named makes them the most underrated team in the league. Lehtonen still ranks among the best checking wingers of all time. Modano is a serviceable 3rd line center. Morrow is the definition of captain. A healthy Zubov (Top 5 Dman, arguably top 3 if healthy) and Boucher will make that PP lights out. Throw in a developing Niskanen and Dallas has a Top 3 Defense in the NHL (Behind Detroit/Montreal(Anaheim)). They also added Rookie Fabian Brunnstrom who was "the best player not in the NHL" last year but I'm not completely sold on him
Phoenix-----------------
91, Watch out for Phoenix, their time is almost here. They will contend for a playoff spot this year and probably squeek in. Addition of Jokinen to center Doan (who is really underrated) along with the young forward core could be enough to push them over the edge. Only question now is their D.
Los Angeles-------------
74, Not ready and not even close. Very good solid young D-core but they will be exposed again this year. Bernier may or may not make the step this year and will be a stud in the future but not ready yet. Very good young Forward group too but they need to learn more 2-way responsibility before LA contends for the playoffs.
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Originally Posted by element1286
