Redman's Euro-Hockey thread

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  • Redman3693
    SBR MVP
    • 04-30-12
    • 1312

    #176
    Nice start from Pardubice 2-0 as Pavelec continues to be a sieve & lets in a 45 footer & follows it up with another weak one less than a minute later.

    I may have gotten jammed on the German game -
    10:30am Eisbaren Berlin -.5 vs Hamburg Freezers (-118 Bet365) 3 units

    I don't see either of the Philly gunners in the lineup... but the fourth line has not been populated so I cannot be sure. The game is tied at 1 at the start of the 2nd period.
    C - Claude Giroux to Eisbaren Berlin 28G, 65A for Philly
    C - Daniel Briere to Eisbaren Berlin 16G, 33A for Philly
    Comment
    • Redman3693
      SBR MVP
      • 04-30-12
      • 1312

      #177
      The goals are really coming in bunches for this match!

      11:00am
      Pardubice -.5 vs Liberec (-133 Bet365) 3 units

      1st period
      2 goals for Pardubice in 15 seconds
      2 goals for Liberec in 27 seconds

      2nd period

      2 goals for Pardubice in 1 minute & 40 seconds

      Both goalies are having technical difficulties
      As long as Pavelec has more, I'm happy!
      Comment
      • Redman3693
        SBR MVP
        • 04-30-12
        • 1312

        #178
        Recap

        AUSTRIA: EBEL11:45am Graz 99ers -2.5 vs TWK Innsbruck (-114 Bet365) 3 units --Loser I was not able to watch this match but can only assume that Graz had their kids play while they went to the bar... They were playing a team that's dead last with no wins & they had home ice advantage... Their fans are probably as happy as the Atlanta fans after that 'infield fly' call that funked they out of the playoffs. A sad a lame effort from one of the league's better teams. Final 4-2 TWK win.

        CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
        11:00am Pardubice -.5 vs Liberec (-133 Bet365) 3 units --Winner Pardubice blaster Pavelec for 6 goals. Both Hemsky & Krejci scored (Krejci had the winner). 6-2 final

        CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
        12:15pm Sparta Prague vs Litvinov ML (+190 Bet365) 3 units --Winner I love it when the big odds cash. Sparta dominated the 1st period but Litvinov came back & scored 3 in the 2nd & 2 in the 3rd to seal the win. Final 5-4

        CZECH REPUBLIC: Extraliga
        12:30pm Kometa Brno -.5 vs Vitkovice (-125 Bet365) 3 units --Winner Vokovice scored late in the 1st & held the lead till late in the 2nd until Kometa tied it with 1:14 left. The game looked to be heading for a tie when Kometa scored with 14 seconds left in the game. Nice.

        GERMANY: DEL
        10:30am Eisbaren Berlin -.5 vs Hamburg Freezers (-118 Bet365) 3 units --Loser I played this one only because I thought Giroux & Briere were in the lineup - I was mistaken & paid for it. Berlin ended up winning it in the shootout. Jamie Benn had 2 goals in regulation & 1 in the shootout for Hamburg.


        Daily total 3-2 +4.36 units -Still in the red, but starting to dig out finally.

        YTD

        Risked: 181.00u Won: 61.05u Lost: -86.00u Net: -24.95u Win Percentage 45.00% | 27-33-8
        Comment
        • Redman3693
          SBR MVP
          • 04-30-12
          • 1312

          #179
          G'Morn folks - Turkey day - Wobbly pops - Football ( I beat the Prick again with 4-1 )

          I'm a little slow today... Selections are small for hockey but I have 3 I will be playing.


          RUSSIA: KHL
          11:00am Lokomotiv Yaroslavl -1 vs Barys Astana (-138 Bet365 alt line) 4 units

          Lokomotiv 7w-3OTW-3L = 25 points
          Barys 6W-2OTL-5L = 20 points


          RUSSIA: KHL
          11:30am Atlant Mytishi -1 vs HC Yugra (-120 Bet365 alt line) 4 units

          Atlant 4W-3OTW-2OTL-4L = 20 points
          Yugra 3W-2OTL-7L = 11 points


          RUSSIA: KHL
          11:45am CSKA Moscow vs SKA St. Petersburg Tie (+310 Bet365) 2 units

          CSKA 5W-4OTW-4L = 23 points
          SKA 7W-1OTL-3L = 22 points 2 games in hand


          Best O'Luck to all on your PiX!
          Comment
          • Redman3693
            SBR MVP
            • 04-30-12
            • 1312

            #180
            Recap

            RUSSIA: KHL
            11:00am Lokomotiv Yaroslavl -1 vs Barys Astana (-138 Bet365 alt line) 4 units --Winner Lokomotive dominated & scored 3 unanswered goals in the 2nd - and followed with another in the 3rd to seal the deal. Barys scored a couple in the 3rd but could do no more. Final 4-2 Lokomotive


            RUSSIA: KHL
            11:30am Atlant Mytishi -1 vs HC Yugra (-120 Bet365 alt line) 4 units --Winner The game was tied at 1 after the 1st. Atlant scored 3 unanswered goals in the second to get the win. Yurga did manage to get a second goal midway through the 3rd in this losing effort. Final 4-2 Atlant


            RUSSIA: KHL
            11:45am CSKA Moscow vs SKA St. Petersburg Tie (+310 Bet365) 2 units --Loser
            Datsyuk was in on both goals for CKSA, goal & an assist, but it was not enough. SKA shut down CKSA when they had an extended 2 man advantage early in the 3rd and never looked back. SKA played an excellent game & deserved the win. I thought that CKSA was going to get the tie but it was not to be. Kovalchuk put on a clinic & pocketed a hat-trick for SKA. Final 4-2 SKA St. Petersburg


            Daily total 2-1 +4.23 units

            YTD

            Risked: 195.00u Won: 67.28u Lost: -88.00u Net: -20.72u Win Percentage 46.03% | 29-34-8
            I'm slowly digging out of the hole I dug. Over 8 units up in the past 2 days.
            Comment
            • tr4sh
              SBR Sharp
              • 09-06-12
              • 311

              #181
              Isn't today +6 units?

              Anyways, nice few days, keep grinding Redman!
              Comment
              • Redman3693
                SBR MVP
                • 04-30-12
                • 1312

                #182
                Originally posted by tr4sh
                Isn't today +6 units?

                Anyways, nice few days, keep grinding Redman!
                That would have been nicer, but I had 1 loss...
                I picked up:

                2.9 On Lokomotive
                3.33 on Atlant
                6.23 + units
                then I lost:
                2 on Tie between SKA & CKSA

                4.23 overall earnings

                I intend to keep at it tr4sh & said at the start that this was new to me (Euro-Hockey) to give everyone fair warning. Even though I'm in the red, I think that I'm not that far out - there were a few games where I feel 'external forces' were at play & the parlays were hurting me as well. If I could remove those 2 factors, I would probably be very close to even or maybe a little in the black. I would definitely have a winning record though & that gives me confidence.

                ThanX for the kind words mate
                Comment
                • fitguy67
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 03-13-11
                  • 5082

                  #183
                  big big for your tremendous effort thus far...

                  your love for the sport and the meticulousness with which you apply it are evident...
                  Comment
                  • Redman3693
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-30-12
                    • 1312

                    #184
                    Originally posted by fitguy67
                    big big for your tremendous effort thus far...

                    your love for the sport and the meticulousness with which you apply it are evident...

                    ThanX fitguy

                    I'm putting in the time, now I just need to see some 'fruits' for my labor. I'm sure they will come, but I had hoped for faster results.

                    Cheers mate
                    Comment
                    • Redman3693
                      SBR MVP
                      • 04-30-12
                      • 1312

                      #185
                      Tuesday's PiX

                      SLOVAKIA: Extraliga
                      11:00am Zvolen -1 vs Skalica (+105 Bet365 alt line) 5 units

                      Zvolen 8W-1OTW = 26 points -1st place
                      Skalica 4W-5L = 12 points --6th place

                      Goals for/Against
                      Zvolen 38-23 = avg 4.22/2.56
                      Skalica 29-37 = avg 3.22/4.11

                      Zvolen has not lost any games this season - add in home ice advantage & I am hard pressed not to jump all over this game. They lead the 2nd place team by 6 points & should easily win this game by at least 2 points. I see the final being 4-1 or greater.

                      Skalica is on a 3 game losing streak. They have only 1 road win & that was against 8th place Ban Bystrica.


                      FINLAND: SM-liiga
                      11:30am Jyp Jyvaskyla -1.5 vs TPS Turku (-118 Bet365) 5 units

                      Jyp 8W-1OTL-1L = 25 points --1st place --Home 3W-1L
                      TPS 2OTW-2OTL-5L = 6 points -14th place -Away 4L (1 game in hand)

                      Goals for/Against
                      Jyp 28-20 = avg 2.8/2.0
                      TPS 18-32 = avg 2.0/3.56

                      JYP lost their last home game. The last time JYP played TPS, they lost in OT. This will be their chance to exact revenge on TPS. I see the final being 4-1 or 5-1 for JYP. TPS has not won any road games (5-2, 5-2, 5-1, 3-0) & they won't start here. They lost by a minimum of 3 goals.


                      GERMANY: DEL
                      1:30pm Kolner -1 vs Munchen (-120 Bet365 alt line) 3 units

                      Kolner 5W-2OTW-1L = 19 points -2nd place
                      Munchen 2W-1OTL-4L = 7 points -13th place (1 game in hand)

                      Goals for/Against
                      Kolner 28-15 = avg 3.5/1.88
                      Munchen 12-15 = avg 1.71/2.14

                      Kolner had their 1st loss of the season. Returning home I expect them to be looking for revenge. They will probably cover the full 1.5 spread, but the Goals for/Against for Munchen (12-15 = avg 1.71/2.14) gives me cause for concern. I'll play this a little safer & get the push at worst.


                      SWITZERLAND: NLA
                      1:45pm Ambri-Piotta vs Bern -1 (-120 Bet365 alt line) 3 units

                      Ambri 1W-1OTL-7L = 4 points -12th place (1 game in hand)
                      Bern 4W-2OTL 4L = 14 points -6th place

                      Ambri Home 1W-1OTL-3L ---last 5 4L-1OTL
                      Bern Away 2L-1OTL-1W-1L -last 5 1W-2L-1W-1OTL

                      Goals for/Against
                      Ambri 15-30
                      Bern 25-22

                      Ambri is in freefall. 4 straight losses & last place overall. Their one NHL signing, Max Pacioretty, has done little to help. Bern, on the other hand, has added depth & talent by acquiring:
                      D - Mark Streit to SC Bern 7G, 40A for NYI
                      D - Roman Josi to SC Bern 6G, 14A vor Nashville / AHL
                      C - John Tavares to SC Bern 31G, 50A for NYI

                      John Tavares only has 2 assists & is due for a breakout game - Ambri may give him that opportunity.


                      SWITZERLAND: NLA
                      1:45pm Lugano -1 vs Tigers (-120 Bet 365 alt line) 3 units

                      Lugano 4W-1OTW-2OTL-3L = 16 points -5th place
                      Tigers 1W-1OTW-2OTL-3L = 7 points --11th place (3 games in hand)

                      Lugano Home 3W-1OTW-1OTL
                      Tigers Away 1W-1OTW-2OTL-3L

                      Goals for/Against
                      Lugano 26-25 = avg 2.6/2.5 -last 5: L-W-OTL-L-W
                      Tigers 13-20 = avg 1.86/2.86 -last 5: W-L-2OTL-L

                      NHL talent
                      Lugano
                      D - Luca Sbisa to HC Lugano 5G, 19A for Anaheim
                      F - Patrice Bergeron to HC Lugano 21G, 14A for Boston
                      Tigers
                      D - Jared Spurgeon to SCL Tigers 3G, 20A for Minnesota
                      F - Tyler Ennis to SCL Tigers 15G, 19A in 48 games for Buffalo

                      Overall standings are decieving as the Tigers have 3 games in hand. The factors influencing me are: Goals for/Against, home ice adv, & Last 5.


                      SWITZERLAND: NLA
                      1:45pm Servette -1 vs Rapperswil (-120 Bet 365 alt line) 3 units

                      Servette -8W-1OTW-1L = 26 points---------1st place
                      Rapperswil -5W-1OTW-1OTL-3L = 18 points -3rd place

                      Goals for/Against
                      Servette 31-17 = avg 3.1/1.7
                      Rapperswil 32-31 = avg 3.2/3.1

                      Servette not only lost their last game (1st loss of the season), they were blown out 5-1 by Bern (6th place). Back at home, I see them looking to avenge the loss. Rapperswil is not a pushover by any means, but I believe they are in for a rough ride this game.

                      NHL talent
                      Servette
                      D - Yannick Weber to Geneva-Servette 4G, 14A for Montreal
                      C - Logan Couture to Geneva-Servette 31G, 34A for San Jose
                      Rapperswil
                      C - Jason SPEZZA to RAPPERSWIL-JONA Lakers 34G, 50A for Ottawa **Spezza lit it up with 2G & 2A on their last game (Lugano)


                      SWITZERLAND: NLA
                      1:45pm Zug ML vs Davos (+120 Bet365) Strong lean with Zug as they have just signed Zetterburg - who travelled there Friday (I'm not sure he will play this game). Also nash is supposed to return to Davos today - even if he does, I'm sure that his ice time will be very limited. This play will be a game time decision for me.

                      Best O'Luck on all your PiX
                      Comment
                      • Redman3693
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-30-12
                        • 1312

                        #186
                        Addon game

                        RUSSIA: KHL
                        12:30pm Dinamo Riga vs Dinamo Minsk ML (+115 Bet365) 3 units


                        Riga 3W-2OTW-2OTL-7L = 15 points -12th place
                        Minsk 4W-1OTW-9L = 14 points -----13th place


                        Goals for/Against
                        Riga 27-33 = avg 1.93/2.36
                        Minsk 28-46 = avg 2.0/3.29


                        This is a cellar dwellar battle in the KHL's West Conf. (12th vs 13th). What draws me to this game is Minsk's latest addition - Pekka Rinne. He is an outstanding goalie, one of the best in the NHL IMHO. This will be his 5th start (1W-3L). Their full NHL list:
                        C - Evander Kane to Dinamo Minsk 30G, 27A for Winnipeg
                        F - Tim Stapleton to Dinamo Minsk 11G, 16A for Winnipeg
                        G - Pekka Rinne to Dinamo Minsk 2.39GAA 43-18-8 .922SV%
                        F - Joe Pavelski to Dinamo Minsk 31G, 30A for San Jose


                        Recently, the coach for Minsk called out Evander Kane:
                        ---Dinamo Minsk's coach accused Evander Kane of not being KHL-ready and said that he's out of shape, according to Pavel Lysenkov.
                        Kane hasn't registered a goal or assist but has 14 PIM and a -3 rating in three KHL games. Kane earned just 11 minutes of ice time in the team's most recent game. This isn't a great sign for the Winnipeg Jets, who've also seen troubling signs from cornerstones Ondrej Pavelec and Dustin Byfuglien during this offseason.---


                        This may be what he needs to WTFU & start playing. Tim Stapleton has 6G & 4A in 14 games for Minsk. I can't confirm if he is in the lineup but it was reported on the 4th that Joe Pavelski will be playing for Minsk this week - that would some serious firepower to a team that averages 2 GPG.


                        Riga has home ice advantage & has acquired:
                        D - Kaspars Daugavins to Dinamo Riga 9G, 8A for Bingo / Ottawa
                        D - Mathieu Carle to Dinamo Riga 6G, 31A Property of Anaheim


                        I really like the +115 odds on this dog.
                        Comment
                        • MetalHeadJeff86
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 07-25-12
                          • 121

                          #187
                          Im tailing. Also took o5.5 goals scored.
                          Comment
                          • BryanBarina
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 05-07-12
                            • 245

                            #188
                            Oh my God. Watching a KHL game on ESPN2. They have sexy cheerleaders at these hockey games. I might move to Russia.
                            Comment
                            • Redman3693
                              SBR MVP
                              • 04-30-12
                              • 1312

                              #189
                              Originally posted by MetalHeadJeff86
                              Im tailing. Also took o5.5 goals scored.
                              ThanX for the vote of confidence. If they keep this pace, 2 goals a period, your over will hit nicely.

                              Too bad Rinne let in that lazy 40 footer... Damn that looked bad. Still lots of time though.

                              Hopefully you grabbed the Zvolen -1 pick I posted - they totally hammered scalica 8-3. It was a nice 5 unit play to start the day.

                              Cheers mate
                              Comment
                              • Redman3693
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-30-12
                                • 1312

                                #190
                                Originally posted by BryanBarina
                                Oh my God. Watching a KHL game on ESPN2. They have sexy cheerleaders at these hockey games. I might move to Russia.

                                Sweeeet action!


                                & the game is pretty good as well
                                Comment
                                • Redman3693
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-30-12
                                  • 1312

                                  #191
                                  Adding
                                  SWITZERLAND: NLA
                                  1:45pm Zug ML vs Davos (-133 Bet365) 3 units

                                  Strong lean with Zug as they have just signed Zetterburg - who travelled there Friday (I'm not sure he will play this game). Also nash is supposed to return to Davos today - even if he does, I'm sure that his ice time will be very limited. This play will be a game time decision for me.
                                  Comment
                                  • MetalHeadJeff86
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 07-25-12
                                    • 121

                                    #192
                                    Originally posted by Redman3693
                                    ThanX for the vote of confidence. If they keep this pace, 2 goals a period, your over will hit nicely.

                                    Too bad Rinne let in that lazy 40 footer... Damn that looked bad. Still lots of time though.

                                    Hopefully you grabbed the Zvolen -1 pick I posted - they totally hammered scalica 8-3. It was a nice 5 unit play to start the day.

                                    Cheers mate
                                    I missed out on that play. Over doesnt look good right now. Maybe an offensive explosion?
                                    Comment
                                    • Redman3693
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 04-30-12
                                      • 1312

                                      #193
                                      Originally posted by MetalHeadJeff86
                                      I missed out on that play. Over doesn't look good right now. Maybe an offensive explosion?
                                      Had some running around to do & just got back in. Looks like the over did not happen - sorry mate. Minsk did not win, but was a push at least.

                                      As for the rest of the PiX, Lugano looks like an easy win, Bern is leading by 1 but needs another to cover the spread, Kolner looks solid leading by 3 late in the 3rd, Servette is pounding Rapperswill after giving up the first goal, and Davos & Zug are tied at 2 halfway through the 3rd. Going to be another good day I think.

                                      Cheers mate
                                      Comment
                                      • MetalHeadJeff86
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 07-25-12
                                        • 121

                                        #194
                                        I think I'm going to stay away from Int'l Hockey for now. Just wanted to try something different.

                                        GL the rest of the way!
                                        Comment
                                        • Redman3693
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 04-30-12
                                          • 1312

                                          #195
                                          Recap

                                          SLOVAKIA: Extraliga
                                          11:00am Zvolen -1 vs Skalica (+105 Bet365 alt line) 5 units -- Winner Zvolen totally dominated & pounded Skalica 8-3. I bought up to the -1 mark but should have bought higher... Damn. Oh well, I'm happy for the win - especially at +105 odds but I'll remember Zvolen for future action.


                                          FINLAND: SM-liiga
                                          11:30am Jyp Jyvaskyla -1.5 vs TPS Turku (-118 Bet365) 5 units --Loser Game was tied by TPS late in the 3rd to send it to OT. JYP is / was in first before this game but TPS seems to own them every time that they play. Damn... TPS ended up winning in the shootout 2-1


                                          I'll be taking Jyp for 5 units on Friday to beat Ilves and betting against TPS tomorrow when they play Karpat.


                                          GERMANY: DEL
                                          1:30pm Kolner -1 vs Munchen (-120 Bet365 alt line) 3 units --Winner Kolner earns a ahutout in this 3-0 win. I should have taken a higher handicap but need to get the BR back into the black first.


                                          SWITZERLAND: NLA
                                          1:45pm Ambri-Piotta vs Bern -1 (-120 Bet365 alt line) 3 units --Winner Ambri looked like they were going to run away with this on by taking a 2-0 lead by the 5 min mark of the first period. I guess they figured that was all they needed because they went for a nap & allowed Bern to score 5 unanswered goals for the win. In my writeup I said:

                                          "John Tavares only has 2 assists & is due for a breakout game - Ambri may give him that opportunity."

                                          Mr Tavares did not dissappoint! He started the scoring for Bern 3 minutes after they pocketed their second goal and then ended the scoring for Bern by floating a 150 footer into the empty net to cover the spread for me - now that's a nice guy!


                                          SWITZERLAND: NLA
                                          1:45pm Lugano -1 vs Tigers (-120 Bet 365 alt line) 3 units --Winner Lugano really laid a beating on the Tigers in this on by winning 7-3. They had 5 unanswered goals before the Tigers could find the back of the net. Heikkinen scored a natural hat-trick & Patrice Bergeron had a 5 point night, 2G & 3A, in this beating.


                                          SWITZERLAND: NLA
                                          1:45pm Servette -1 vs Rapperswil (-120 Bet 365 alt line) 3 units --Winner Rapperswill started fast & scored in the first minute. After that, they just rolled over and died (maybe they let their kids play???). Servette proved why they are in 1st place by scoring the next 8 goals to take this game 8-1. Logan Couture has a 4 point night - 2G & 2A including the game winner


                                          SWITZERLAND: NLA
                                          1:45pm Zug ML vs Davos (-133 Bet365) 3 units --Push Both teams skated to a 2-2 draw during regulation. Even though it was Nash's first game back, he proved no worse for wear as he scored the tying goal for Davos partway through the 3rd period. Davos went on to win 3-2 by scoring with 16 seconds left in OT.


                                          RUSSIA: KHL
                                          12:30pm Dinamo Riga vs Dinamo Minsk ML (+115 Bet365) 3 units --Push The game went scoreless until OT after each team pocketed 1 in the 1st period. Riga ended up winning the game in OT 2-1.


                                          Daily total 5-1-2 +10.25 units Great Day!

                                          YTD
                                          Risked: 236.00u Won: 82.53u Lost: -93.00u Net: -10.47u Win Percentage 49.28% | 34-35-10
                                          Still in the red, but have picked up 18.84 units in the past 3 days. Now that's more like it. Grinding it out there folks.

                                          Best O'Luck on all your PiX
                                          Comment
                                          • Redman3693
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 04-30-12
                                            • 1312

                                            #196
                                            Originally posted by MetalHeadJeff86
                                            I think I'm going to stay away from Int'l Hockey for now. Just wanted to try something different.

                                            GL the rest of the way!
                                            It's something new for me as well. Sorry that you did not cash today but BOL on the rest of your PiX!

                                            Cheers mate
                                            Comment
                                            • tr4sh
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 09-06-12
                                              • 311

                                              #197
                                              I was with you on the bets that specifically had NHL player movements so 3-0-1 for the day albeit for 0.5 unit each

                                              Real nice day for you though, great job.
                                              Comment
                                              • Redman3693
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 04-30-12
                                                • 1312

                                                #198
                                                Originally posted by tr4sh
                                                I was with you on the bets that specifically had NHL player movements so 3-0-1 for the day albeit for 0.5 unit each

                                                Real nice day for you though, great job.

                                                ThanX for the vote of confidence - glad I was able to make you some $$$. Things look to be turning around & I'm getting rid of that hole I dug. Hopefully I can maintain it.

                                                Cheers mate
                                                Comment
                                                • fitguy67
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 03-13-11
                                                  • 5082

                                                  #199
                                                  Red,

                                                  you're record-keeping is fabulous...best i've seen ever posted on a forum anywhere

                                                  your format= units-Risked, units-Won, units-Lost, units-Netted, W%, WLP

                                                  is just one basic statistic short of perfection

                                                  if you could also report what I call "units-Targeted" (ie. the sum of the "to win" amounts corresponding to each play)...

                                                  having this one-extra figure available, would allow you to directly derive your overall actual odds...and from that your book-implied "break even" win%...which when compared to your actual win% of 49.88% gives great insight into the makeup of your current yield of -4.44%=-10.47/236...

                                                  "WLP alone" is poor..."WLP,units-netted" is an improvement...adding units-risked (and units-won/units-lost) as you do is a major improvement over that, as it allows us to directly-calculate yield%...adding units-Targeted to the mix would allow for a direct accounting of odds and win%, casting light on that all-important yield%
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Redman3693
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-30-12
                                                    • 1312

                                                    #200
                                                    Originally posted by fitguy67
                                                    Red,

                                                    you're record-keeping is fabulous...best i've seen ever posted on a forum anywhere

                                                    your format= units-Risked, units-Won, units-Lost, units-Netted, W%, WLP

                                                    is just one basic statistic short of perfection

                                                    if you could also report what I call "units-Targeted" (ie. the sum of the "to win" amounts corresponding to each play)...

                                                    having this one-extra figure available, would allow you to directly derive your overall actual odds...and from that your book-implied "break even" win%...which when compared to your actual win% of 49.88% gives great insight into the makeup of your current yield of -4.44%=-10.47/236...

                                                    "WLP alone" is poor..."WLP,units-netted" is an improvement...adding units-risked (and units-won/units-lost) as you do is a major improvement over that, as it allows us to directly-calculate yield%...adding units-Targeted to the mix would allow for a direct accounting of odds and win%, casting light on that all-important yield%

                                                    I'm not sure I fully understand what you're looking for Fitguy (it may be the wobbly pops )...

                                                    I keep an up to date SBR spreadsheet with all the dirty details.

                                                    Are you looking for this?

                                                    10/09/2012 02:15 AM NHL Servette -1 -120 3 2.5
                                                    2.5 units targeted profit on a 3 unit wager
                                                    Comment
                                                    • fitguy67
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 03-13-11
                                                      • 5082

                                                      #201
                                                      you're just the second guy i've ever seen that keeps a running tally of $-risked (or units-risked, don't matter as long as it's consistent)...it allows you to turn your net-profits (a measure of "effectiveness) into a yield% (a measure of "efficiency")...first step toward SHAWP record-keeping

                                                      going one step further is to keep a running total of those "to win" figures (like the 2.5 units above)...just as you now keep a running total of your "risked" figures
                                                      ________
                                                      specifically, for that one bet you show above, 3 units are added to the running total of "Risked"...i'm suggesting you similarly keep a running total of "Targeted"...which would be increased by 2.5 due to this play

                                                      then at any point, you can calculate the odds of your entire betting history as (T/R)+1=D [decimal format odds]...the reciprocal of this, 1/D, would then gives the corresponding break-even win%...which makes, just for staters, a nice "at a glance" comparison to your actual win%...
                                                      _________
                                                      it's obvious you are a perfectionist...most thorough tracking of the betting process i've ever seen (and the only thread that consistently logs "post-play" comments...an excellent habit)...just thot' i'd give u a heads up that if you auto-summed just one more column...u'd have access to some extra-shawp performance indicators (starting with actual odds & break-even win%..)...

                                                      ______

                                                      oops, i see ur using SBR's spreadsheet...it unfortunately doesn't keep a running-tally of the "Targeted"...
                                                      damn wobbly-pops!!!

                                                      [it'd be dead easy on an .xls, which is what i thot' u tracked on...but'd be an extra side-calculation to maintain if ur using SBR...probably not worth the trubl, cuz ur already putting in a ton of work on this]...hmmm...i'll look at your SBR-sheet, when i have time and do the advanced performance stats for you if u'd like, lemme know...

                                                      let's get the bastard into the black first, tho'
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Redman3693
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-30-12
                                                        • 1312

                                                        #202
                                                        Originally posted by fitguy67
                                                        you're just the second guy i've ever seen that keeps a running tally of $-risked (or units-risked, don't matter as long as it's consistent)...it allows you to turn your net-profits (a measure of "effectiveness) into a yield% (a measure of "efficiency")...first step toward SHAWP record-keeping

                                                        going one step further is to keep a running total of those "to win" figures (like the 2.5 units above)...just as you now keep a running total of your "risked" figures
                                                        ________
                                                        specifically, for that one bet you show above, 3 units are added to the running total of "Risked"...i'm suggesting you similarly keep a running total of "Targeted"...which would be increased by 2.5 due to this play

                                                        then at any point, you can calculate the odds of your entire betting history as (T/R)+1=D [decimal format odds]...the reciprocal of this, 1/D, would then gives the corresponding break-even win%...which makes, just for staters, a nice "at a glance" comparison to your actual win%...
                                                        _________
                                                        it's obvious you are a perfectionist...most thorough tracking of the betting process i've ever seen (and the only thread that consistently logs "post-play" comments...an excellent habit)...just thot' i'd give u a heads up that if you auto-summed just one more column...u'd have access to some extra-shawp performance indicators (starting with actual odds & break-even win%..)...

                                                        ______

                                                        oops, i see ur using SBR's spreadsheet...it unfortunately doesn't keep a running-tally of the "Targeted"...
                                                        damn wobbly-pops!!!

                                                        [it'd be dead easy on an .xls, which is what i thot' u tracked on...but'd be an extra side-calculation to maintain if ur using SBR...probably not worth the trubl, cuz ur already putting in a ton of work on this]...hmmm...i'll look at your SBR-sheet, when i have time and do the advanced performance stats for you if u'd like, lemme know...

                                                        let's get the bastard into the black first, tho'

                                                        That sounds good to me, I never turn down an offer of assistance or guidance to help better my performance. I do put a lot of hours into research as the end goal is to make $$$ - for myself and for any folks that care to follow as well.

                                                        ThanX for taking the time to share your thoughts - I always welcome input!

                                                        Cheers mate
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Redman3693
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 04-30-12
                                                          • 1312

                                                          #203
                                                          Wednesday PiX

                                                          FINLAND: SM-liiga
                                                          11:30am Blues Espoo -.5 vs Tappara (+105 Bet365) 5 units

                                                          Blues 6W-1OTW-1OTL-1L = 21 points -2nd place (1 game in hand)
                                                          Tappara 4W-1OTL-5L = 13 points ----9th place

                                                          Goals for/against
                                                          Blues 34-21 ---avg 3.78/2.33 -Home 4W
                                                          Tappara 32-33 -avg 3.20/3.30 -Away 3W-2L

                                                          The Blues have never lost at home, they have always won straight-up. There are no NHL assets in this game.


                                                          FINLAND: SM-liiga
                                                          11:30am Karpat Oulu -.1 vs TPS Turku (-138 Bet365) 3 units

                                                          Karpat 3W-1OTW-1OTL-4L = 12 points -10th place (1 game in hand)
                                                          TPS 3OTW-2OTL-5L = 8 points --------14th place

                                                          Goals for/against
                                                          Karpat 26-22 ---avg 2.89/2.44 -Home W-L-W-L
                                                          TPS 20-33 ------avg 2.00/3.30 -Away 1OTW-4L

                                                          NHL assets
                                                          D - Jason Demers to Karpat Oulu 4G, 9A for San Jose
                                                          F - Jussi Jokinen to Karpat Oulu 12G, 34A for Carolina
                                                          C - Kyle Turris to Karpat Oulu 12G, 17A for Ottawa

                                                          D - Kris Russell to TPS Turku 6G, 6A in 55 games between Columbus / St louis ***Injured - undisclosed
                                                          F - Lauri Korpikoski to TPS Turku 17G, 20A for Phoenix
                                                          D - Alec Martinez to TPS Turku 6G, 6A for LA

                                                          TPS is playing their 2nd game in 2 days. They stunned the league by getting the OTW yesterday over JYP. Yesterday was an anomily, they will lose today.


                                                          RUSSIA: KHL
                                                          11:00am Lokomotiv Yaroslavl -1.5 vs HC Yugra (-105 Bet365) 3 units

                                                          Lokomotiv 8W-2OTW-3L = 28 points -2nd place --Home 3W-1OTW-2L
                                                          HC Yugra 3W-2OTL-8L = 11 points --11th place -Away 3OTL-6L

                                                          Goals for/against
                                                          Lokomotiv 35-27 -avg 2.69/2.08
                                                          HC Yugra 35-48 --avg 2.69/3.69

                                                          NHL assets
                                                          G - Semyon Varlamov to Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 2.59GAA 26-24-3 .913SV%
                                                          C - Artem Anisimov to Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 16G, 20A for NYR
                                                          D - Dmitry Kulikov to Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 4G, 24A for Florida
                                                          F - Niklas Hagman to Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 8G, 11A for Anaheim

                                                          If Lokomotiv does not win by at least 2 today, the fix was in. They have everything going in their favor - home ice adv, Solid goaltending, & a 13th place team that has not won on the road.


                                                          SLOVAKIA: Extraliga
                                                          12:00pm Slovakia U20 +2.5 vs Dukla Trencin (-118 Bet 365) 3 units **Slovakia U20 is listed as 'HK Orange 20'

                                                          Slovakia U20 8L = 0 points ----------11th place(1 game in hand)
                                                          Dukla Trencin 3W-1OTL-5L = 10 points -9th place

                                                          Goals for/against
                                                          Slovakia U20 28-32 --avg 3.11/3.56
                                                          Dukla Trencin 14-37 -avg 1.75/4.63

                                                          Slovakia is winless at home but have only lost by more than 2 goals twice to teams with higher standings than Dukla. Their last 2 losses were by 1 goal. They are due.


                                                          SWEDEN: HockeyAllsvenskan
                                                          1:00pm Djurgardens vs Orebro ML (+115 Bet365) 5 units

                                                          Djurgardens 3W-2OTL-4L = 11 points -11th place -Home 2W-2L
                                                          Orebro 6W-1OTW-2L = 20 points -------2nd place -Away 5W

                                                          Goals for/against
                                                          Djurgardens 19-25 -avg 2.11/2.78
                                                          Orebro -----33-23 -avg 3.67/2.56

                                                          NHL assets
                                                          F - Patric Hornqvist to Djurgardens IF 27G, 16A for Nashville
                                                          D - Douglas Murray to Djurgardens IF 4A for San Jose
                                                          F - Gabriel Landeskog to Djurgardens 22G, 30A for Colorado

                                                          I really like this game & was very tempted to take the alternale line Orebro -.5 / +170 odds but will take the safer line for this match.

                                                          Djurgardens has the NHL assets, home ice advantage, & Gabriel Landeskog is supposed to make his first appearance. They have also lost their last 2 home games.

                                                          However, Orebro is almost tops in the league (just behind 1st by 1 point, but they have 1 game in hand). On average, they score 1.56 more GPG that Djurgardens. They have lost their last game & I believe they will come out firing on all cylinders. Worst case I see is a push.


                                                          Best O'Luck on all of your PiX
                                                          Comment
                                                          • fitguy67
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 03-13-11
                                                            • 5082

                                                            #204
                                                            Orebro pk (equivalent to a handicap of 0, which is equivalent to ml, as best as i can figure...meaning if a tie should occur it is a push="draw no bet" in euro-speak...right???) has moved all the way to +142 at Pinny by gametime...not one to look a gift-horse in the mouth, i'll take that "23% more escarole" sale anytime...Goooo Orebroooo

                                                            Post-Game Comment: Happily discovered one important nuance of pk...it doesn't include the penalty-shootout...I'd guess pk applies to "regulation only" (and OT play doesn't count either), but not sure...
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Redman3693
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 04-30-12
                                                              • 1312

                                                              #205
                                                              Looks like the fix was in...

                                                              RUSSIA: KHL
                                                              11:00am Lokomotiv Yaroslavl -1.5 vs HC Yugra (-105 Bet365) 3 units

                                                              If Lokomotiv does not win by at least 2 today, the fix was in. They have everything going in their favor - home ice adv, Solid goaltending, & a 13th place team that has not won on the road.

                                                              Yurga leading 3-2, no Semyon Varlamov in net, no Niklas Hagman in the lineup, Yurga outshooting Lokomotiv 31-22...

                                                              Sad state of affairs.

                                                              In future, where games look like this, I'm going to play small wagers on the 'impossible' - just for the KHL. I want to see if I can capitalize on some of the corruption.

                                                              Odds for Yurga to win were +425...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Redman3693
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 04-30-12
                                                                • 1312

                                                                #206
                                                                Originally posted by fitguy67
                                                                Orebro pk (equivalent to a handicap of 0, which is equivalent to ml, as best as i can figure, no?) has moved all the way to +142 at Pinny by gametime...not one to look a gift-horse in the mouth, i'll take that "23% more escarole" sale anytime...Goooo Orebroooo

                                                                VERY NICE GRAB Fitguy

                                                                From my writeup:
                                                                "I really like this game & was very tempted to take the alternate line Orebro -.5 / +170 odds but will take the safer line for this match."



                                                                Cheers mate
                                                                Comment
                                                                • fitguy67
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 03-13-11
                                                                  • 5082

                                                                  #207
                                                                  Originally posted by Redman3693
                                                                  Looks like the fix was in...

                                                                  I want to see if I can capitalize on some of the corruption.
                                                                  ...as if capping the games (with the assumption that they were 100% competitive) weren't enough of a challenge...what a goddam world we live in
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • tr4sh
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 09-06-12
                                                                    • 311

                                                                    #208
                                                                    Wow, I hope that's not true but if you feel any doubt, I'd stay away from that league. As fitguy said, it's hard enough to win as is... no need to deal with anything that might make you second guess yourself.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Redman3693
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 04-30-12
                                                                      • 1312

                                                                      #209
                                                                      Recap



                                                                      FINLAND: SM-liiga
                                                                      11:30am Blues Espoo -.5 vs Tappara (+105 Bet365) 5 units --Loser The Blues were leading 3-1 after 2 but gave up 2 unanswered goals in the 3rd to allowTappara to tie it up and send it to OT. Tappara scored halfway through the 3rd for the win. Painful loss & the 1st loss for the Blues at home.


                                                                      FINLAND: SM-liiga
                                                                      11:30am Karpat Oulu -.1 vs TPS Turku (-138 Bet365) 3 units --Winner As I predicted yesterday, TPS rolled over for Oulu who won the game 4-0. I should have played 5 units on this one... Damn. Oh well, I'll make it up on JYP for their Friday match when they get back into form - watch for it.


                                                                      RUSSIA: KHL
                                                                      11:00am Lokomotiv Yaroslavl -1.5 vs HC Yugra (-105 Bet365) 3 units --Loss Looks like the fix was in...


                                                                      If Lokomotiv does not win by at least 2 today, the fix was in. They have everything going in their favor - home ice adv, Solid goaltending, & a 13th place team that has not won on the road.

                                                                      Yurga won 3-2, no Semyon Varlamov in net, no Niklas Hagman in the lineup, Yurga outshot Lokomotiv 32-26...

                                                                      Sad state of affairs.

                                                                      In future, where games look like this, I'm going to play small wagers on the 'impossible' - just for the KHL. I want to see if I can capitalize on some of the corruption.

                                                                      Odds for Yurga to win were +425...


                                                                      SLOVAKIA: Extraliga
                                                                      12:00pm Slovakia U20 +2.5 vs Dukla Trencin (-118 Bet 365) 3 units **Slovakia U20 is listed as 'HK Orange 20' --Loser Slovakia could not get it together to cover the spread. They ended up losing by 4 in this 5-1 game.




                                                                      SWEDEN: HockeyAllsvenskan
                                                                      1:00pm Djurgardens vs Orebro ML (+115 Bet365) 5 units --Push Landeskog was the difference in this game. Hescored the first goal & assisted on the second to give Djurgardens a 2-0 lead that held until just after the 8 min mark of the third period. Then Orebro woke up 7 pocketed the next 2 goals to tie the game & send it to OT. Djurgardens ended up winning this in the shootout 3-2.


                                                                      Daily total 1-3-1 -8.83 units Tough day at the rink...

                                                                      YTD
                                                                      Risked: 251.00u Won: 84.70u Lost: -104.00u Net: -19.30u Win Percentage 47.95% | 35-38-11
                                                                      Tomorrow will be a better day.



                                                                      Best O'Luck on all of your PiX
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Redman3693
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 04-30-12
                                                                        • 1312

                                                                        #210
                                                                        "...as if capping the games (with the assumption that they were 100% competitive) weren't enough of a challenge...what a goddam world we live in"

                                                                        Wow, I hope that's not true but if you feel any doubt, I'd stay away from that league. As fitguy said, it's hard enough to win as is... no need to deal with anything that might make you second guess yourself.



                                                                        I find it hard to believe that there were no external forces at play for this one... I'm currently working on league based stats to see where the $$$ is coming & going. Just from personal recollection, there have been 3-5 KHL games where I was very surprised at the outcomes. Ihave no proof & no way of proving any of these comments as upsets happen - but IMHO, they generally happen when a goalie gets hot ---- rarely does an entire team go 'cold'.
                                                                        Comment
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