Been thinking of building a sports prediction game and trying to wrap my head around what variables or formula would you use to determine an expert. For example, if you had 1000 people participated, and wanted to create a leaderboard ranking them in chronological order of their 'expertise' of their sport prediction skills/accuracy, what criteria would you use?
I've narrowed the variables too.
1. win percentage
2. earnings/winnings
3. number of games predicted
4. time
What formula could I use from these variables to provide the most accurate list of experts?
I had first thought 'win percentage", but that would be skewed based on the number of games a person predicts (ex. I predicted 2 games and get 2 right = 100% vs. someone who predicts 100 games and gets 70 right = 70%). So then time and number of games should become a factor. And if these are two integral factors, what would be an appropriate value to use for these?
Throwing this on think tank wall to come up with the most ideal scenario.