NFL totals model MAE analysis

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  • brettd
    SBR High Roller
    • 01-25-10
    • 229

    #1
    NFL totals model MAE analysis
    I'm getting a Mean Absolute Error of 11.10 points on my NFL totals model (on a fairly sizable testing set) comparing against the actual scoreline. It seems to me that the market's MAE over the last 4 years is 10.4 points on NFL totals.

    I've not gone to the point of testing ATS, but given my MAE result on my out of sample testing set, can I expect to fare well on totals ATS?
    Last edited by brettd; 08-19-12, 11:26 AM.
  • tukkk
    SBR Sharp
    • 10-04-10
    • 391

    #2
    im assuming this isnt based on all the games available, but the ones your model has chosen
    so what is the % of games chosen?
    Last edited by tukkk; 08-19-12, 11:30 AM.
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