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Sacrificing a good bet for a decent chance of a middle
Currently on wizards - bucks under 187.5 at -110. The in-play odds available now is over 176.5 as an even money shot.
Take it or leave it? Very tempted to but it just feels wrong to do it.
I have looked at this a few times before and done the middle "on paper" only, if I had actually gone for the middle I would have been up a lot of $$'s..
It's a judgment call based on pace, momentum, and if the team has "it" today. I had much better success doing this in NFL, as teams would jump out to a lead, and then I could buy them back.
Example: Packers were -2 to -3 depending on where you got them. They were up 11 at the half, I was able to get steelers +7.5 in live wagering. I was already on the Packers ML, so I had a touchdown gap set up to middle it.
Is the in-game OVER bet +EV? Middling does not exist if you are a profit maximizer. You have to stop looking at this as one entity and realize what it truly is--two separate bets. If you middle it means you're afraid of losing what you already bet which means you bet too much $.
This is the correct way to do it... Your decision should be based on if the second bet is +EV or not regardless of the position you took in the first bet...Originally Posted by illfuuptn
take it. jENNINGS WILL BE ON FIREEE
I did not think the over 176.5 was a good bet as the pace of the game was so slow. However a 10 pt middle is pretty good so that is why I was looking at doing it. At one point I even saw the total down at 172.5 and I was about to go for a bet half the size of my under 187.5 bet. Thankfully I did not do it as the total settled at 171 pts.
I was confident that there was no way the match would go over 187.5, OT was out of the question. I just wanted a chance to hit the jackpot.
I think you are right though, one has to look at the bets as two seperate entities.
Definitely have to view it as separate entities. You don't want to take a -ev bet just because you could hit a middle.
I think you should only bet out of these situations if you really don't feel good about the original bet.
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