1. #1
    Boner_18
    Update your status
    Boner_18's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-24-08
    Posts: 8,301
    Betpoints: 1031

    Predicting Season Wins (MLB)

    What is the best method for predicting season wins in MLB? I understand how to use a binomial to price a certain amount of o/u wins but am unsure where to start in generating my own numbers. Is last season predictive? If so, what sorts of adjustments most influence the total wins?

  2. #2
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    Look at this year's roster. Estimate how many runs this roster will score this year, and how many runs the roster, as a whole, will allow.

    Then use pythag.

  3. #3
    Boner_18
    Update your status
    Boner_18's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-24-08
    Posts: 8,301
    Betpoints: 1031

    Excellent. Thank you. In projecting runs scored/runs allowed is it ok to use projected PAs for a hitter/pitcher when that player is traded?

    Player X is projected for 432 PAs in a major publication and is listed as CWS... he will play for NYY this season, do I need to somehow reduce PAs? Is it within a safe margin of error to simply use the projection?

  4. #4
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    Tough question. It's an estimate.

    Make sure NYY's overall plate appearances add up, whatever you do with it. If NYY "acquired" 432 PAs but only gave up 100, other players will get fewer PAs, or the traded player will.

  5. #5
    Peregrine Stoop
    Peregrine Stoop's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-23-09
    Posts: 869
    Betpoints: 779

    Quote Originally Posted by Boner_18 View Post
    What is the best method for predicting season wins in MLB? I understand how to use a binomial to price a certain amount of o/u wins but am unsure where to start in generating my own numbers. Is last season predictive? If so, what sorts of adjustments most influence the total wins?
    simulate hundreds of seasons rolling dice on Statis Pro Baseball from Avalon Hill

  6. #6
    byronbb
    byronbb's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-13-08
    Posts: 3,067
    Betpoints: 2284

    Quote Originally Posted by Peregrine Stoop View Post
    simulate hundreds of seasons rolling dice on Statis Pro Baseball from Avalon Hill

    lol I thought you were serious until I googled..........

  7. #7
    OnlyMayo
    OnlyMayo's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-05-10
    Posts: 205
    Betpoints: 44

    Cardinals = 162 regular season wins!!

  8. #8
    threeg5
    All In A Days Work
    threeg5's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-18-09
    Posts: 488
    Betpoints: 321

    Quote Originally Posted by OnlyMayo View Post
    Cardinals = 162 regular season wins!!
    Sounds Like a great fade to me

    3g5

  9. #9
    LineKrusher
    LineKrusher's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-15-11
    Posts: 110
    Betpoints: 205

    Cardinals will be lucky to get 62 wins in 2011...

Top