Overnight Line Moves and Line Moves in General

[jolmscheid]

Hi guys...I am wondering what everyone's thoughts are on line moves..

For instance, say your model comes up with a play that says it should be -150, but the line has moved to -130.....does this alter whether you play the wager or not?

Would you rather see the line moving towards -160 as this would mean that you are on the "right side?"


I am just looking for some insight as to whether line moves should be apart of one's handicapping or if it really does not mean anything..I know there are many different views on this, but would appreciate some thoughts.

Thanks guys

[chunk]

Hi guys...I am wondering what everyone's thoughts are on line moves..

For instance, say your model comes up with a play that says it should be -150, but the line has moved to -130.....does this alter whether you play the wager or not?

Would you rather see the line moving towards -160 as this would mean that you are on the "right side?"


I am just looking for some insight as to whether line moves should be apart of one's handicapping or if it really does not mean anything..I know there are many different views on this, but would appreciate some thoughts.

Thanks guys

Assuming no new info, a better price is always a good thing. The main thing is having trust in what you are doing. If you think you have value, make the play and don't worry about sharps, square, market, etc.

[Juret]

This is driving me crazy as well sometimes. I'd put less empathis on line movements in low-limit markets though, especially if I usually beat it.

[tukkk]

if no change in lineups/venue then who cares

most of the times the line should come back and move to "the right side"

and if it doesnt, then you have done (most likely) something wrong

overall lines do not move the right way 100% of the time

[jolmscheid]

I appreciate the responses guys...I just always wondered if line moves really should be taken into account or not...

[chunk]

if no change in lineups/venue then who cares

most of the times the line should come back and move to "the right side"

and if it doesnt, then you have done (most likely) something wrong

overall lines do not move the right way 100% of the time

What?

[Bluehorseshoe]

I appreciate the responses guys...I just always wondered if line moves really should be taken into account or not...

Sure. If you know how to read them.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Get enough data on past line moves and you start to learn what is "news"-based, and what is just a tipping service at work.

[dangerfish]

Definitely can be unsettling to see your pick get pounded the other way.

[CoachJB]

There are a lot of "fake outs" in the industry. Happens every day.....