1/2 Run value of baseball team totals

[thepokergeek]

anyone know what the 1/2 run values r for mlb team totals. pinny has say 4.5-08 and my local uses say 5 under 30. i feel like there is an edge and that the value is closer to 40c, anyone else playing these or know the value?

[thepokergeek]

60 Views and no one knows?

[sharpcat]

Get data.

[TomG]

learn how to price derivatives

[LT Profits]

60 Views and no one knows?

People know (or can come reasonably close), they just don't want to spoon feed you the answer.

[thepokergeek]

yeah ok, its not that simple. derivative pricing and being spoon feed the answers is just your way of saying that you dont't know the answer. derivative pricing team totals in baseball is far more complicated than any other sport. I do understand why someone would not want to give out the info but I figured id ask anyways.

[solring]

Well, given that TomG used to set the market on Matchbook for baseball team totals, I think it might be safe to say that he knows how...

[subs]

unluckyboy is that u?

[donkson]

must be, he's getting mad at not being spoonfed like last time.

[subs]

yeah ok, its not that simple. derivative pricing and being spoon feed the answers is just your way of saying that you dont't know the answer. derivative pricing team totals in baseball is far more complicated than any other sport. I do understand why someone would not want to give out the info but I figured id ask anyways.

PokerGeek, sorry dumb joke... i shouldn't be commenting cos i don't know well enough how to price team totals in baseball. why is it difficult and what have u tried?

[thepokergeek]

In say nba its pretty simple to figure out the team totals and what amount u need to gain an edge, but in mlb I would need to spend a lot of time trying to get opening/closing lines, setup a database and factor home team not batting in the bottom ninth sometimes etc, I honestly dont have the time to spend right now. I have over 40 non board outs and I have lots of idiot agents to deal with who want to know why there acct isnt getting any play. So i try to give as much play as possible while trying to learn new things, so maybe during the all-star break next week i can spend some time working on it. I was just hoping someone already did the work and i guess yes "spoonfed" me the answers.

[JR007]

been lookin myself, not lots of information out there, my understanding is that you need a pretty exhaustive database and the ability to understand quantitative analytics.............which I do not, ........does not sound easy, maybe pick off rogue lines that are different from pinny
that's the best advice , that I got

[rsigley]

pinny added tt to api just build db have answer in no time

i didn't realize how many line moves was missing from not having tt in xml vs scraping the site. avg'ing about 120 more movements/day vs when i was scraping once a minute

[thepokergeek]

whats api? is it like donbest or sportsoptions, cause options says that it added team totals but the column and history is always blank. and i do pick off the obv stuff its just that im guessing there's probably some good value on the diff lines and thats why i was curious to find out what the half point diff actually r worth. also there could be some numbers that have more value than others, obv like game totals the 7 being worth the most, so there could be an additional hidden value on say over 3.5 and under 4.5

[thepokergeek]

Also possibly betting road teams over 3.5 and home teams under 4.5, those numbers could have more value too

[JR007]

Also possibly betting road teams over 3.5 and home teams under 4.5, those numbers could have more value too

gotta look at how they are "juiced", I would tend to bet offensive teams like St Louis, Yankees, Redsox, tex, especially if they are scoring lots of runs, over at home

[yak merchant]

pinny added tt to api just build db have answer in no time

i didn't realize how many line moves was missing from not having tt in xml vs scraping the site. avg'ing about 120 more movements/day vs when i was scraping once a minute

How often are you pinging API? You can't call more than once a minute correct? So you are saying that you are getting 120 more movements through the API than scraping at the same frequency?

[rsigley]

api documentation says 5 seconds

tt used to not show in xml so had to load and scrape website and if hit too much would get IP banned

[rsigley]

here on 7/6 -

scraping website every min : 295 entries
api every 5 seconds: 441

also stuff tends to show up in API before website. first TT usually is 2-3 minutes before it shows up on website. confuses me when 2H things show up and i want to bet it but not on the site yet

[thepokergeek]

gotta look at how they are "juiced", I would tend to bet offensive teams like St Louis, Yankees, Redsox, tex, especially if they are scoring lots of runs, over at home

My point to betting the home teams under was because u might save a 1/2 inn, im not trying to handicap teams. if anything they should be naturally juiced high so there should be some value on them going under.

[subs]

so how do u get that WO being an affiliate?

where's ur site at?

[rsigley]

if you're talking to me everyone has access to pinny API just get your key from your account info

[subs]

i'm dumb - thanks

[rsigley]

yea documentation is on site too. only negative is you can't pull entire feed at once, have to do it by sport, but if you have couple accounts/ips can just get around it that way

nice thing too is they put the drop down alt spread/totals in api which weren't in xml. not everything is there tho (like most props which appear in xml)

[JR007]

My point to betting the home teams under was because u might save a 1/2 inn, im not trying to handicap teams. if anything they should be naturally juiced high so there should be some value on them going under.

I understand, you are right

[princecharles]

Hey Subs,
You survived Thailand, congrats:-)

[subs]

if u can keep away from this

and avoid betting on this...


then u prolly b alright. may i suggest getting a babysitter & maid, gardener & pool boy ($15 a day each), and dinning @ the 4 seasons/conrad/intercontinental instead.


lush

[subs]

hey while we r being generous, i'm looking to b spoon fed some soccer line data., 'specially SBO or pinny.

also any contributions to my live-in-thai-luxury fund, greatly appreciated.

[princecharles]

if u can keep away from this

and avoid betting on this...


then u prolly b alright. may i suggest getting a babysitter & maid, gardener & pool boy ($15 a day each), and dinning @ the 4 seasons/conrad/intercontinental instead.

lush

Wowo.
Glad you're back. Email me to chat.
My PM's here are off. (Lou thought I insulted his GF, which I didn't, and who I actually think is a pretty damn good anchorwoman.)

[PPH]

I must be blind but I have went through and don't see the MLB TT's in API. Where exactly are they located because I don't see them as a sport. For MLB I only see Spread, ML, and Total.

[durito]

<fdTime>1343490098809</fdTime>
<sports>
<sport>
<id>3</id>
<leagues>
<league>
<id>246</id>
<events>
<event>
<startDateTime>2012-07-28T17:05:00Z</startDateTime>
<id>256401226</id>
<IsLive>No</IsLive>
<status>O</status>
<homeTeam>
<name>Chicago Cubs</name>
<rotNum>902</rotNum>
<pitcher>J. Samardzija</pitcher>
</homeTeam>
<awayTeam>
<name>St. Louis Cardinals</name>
<rotNum>901</rotNum>
<pitcher>J. Kelly</pitcher>
</awayTeam>
<periods>
<period>
<number>0</number>
<description>Game</description>
<cutoffDateTime>2012-07-28T17:05:00Z</cutoffDateTime>
<spreads>
<spread>
<awaySpread>-1.5</awaySpread>
<awayPrice>149</awayPrice>
<homeSpread>1.5</homeSpread>
<homePrice>-162</homePrice>
</spread>
<spread>
<awaySpread>-2.5</awaySpread>
<awayPrice>222</awayPrice>
<homeSpread>2.5</homeSpread>
<homePrice>-264</homePrice>
</spread>
<spread>
<awaySpread>-2</awaySpread>
<awayPrice>196</awayPrice>
<homeSpread>2</homeSpread>
<homePrice>-224</homePrice>
</spread>
<spread>
<awaySpread>-1</awaySpread>
<awayPrice>118</awayPrice>
<homeSpread>1</homeSpread>
<homePrice>-132</homePrice>
</spread>
</spreads>
<totals>
<total>
<points>7.5</points>
<overPrice>-106</overPrice>
<underPrice>-104</underPrice>
</total>
<total>
<points>6.5</points>
<overPrice>-183</overPrice>
<underPrice>162</underPrice>
</total>
<total>
<points>7</points>
<overPrice>-147</overPrice>
<underPrice>129</underPrice>
</total>
<total>
<points>8</points>
<overPrice>110</overPrice>
<underPrice>-125</underPrice>
</total>
<total>
<points>8.5</points>
<overPrice>126</overPrice>
<underPrice>-143</underPrice>
</total>
</totals>
<moneyLine>
<awayPrice>-107</awayPrice>
<homePrice>101</homePrice>
<drawPrice/>
</moneyLine>
<teamTotals>
<homeTeamTotal>
<total>3.5</total>
<overPrice>-112</overPrice>
<underPrice>-104</underPrice>
</homeTeamTotal>
<awayTeamTotal>
<total>3.5</total>
<overPrice>-124</overPrice>
<underPrice>106</underPrice>
</awayTeamTotal>
</teamTotals>
<maxBetAmount>
<spread>20000</spread>
<totalPoints>10000</totalPoints>
<moneyLine>30000</moneyLine>
<teamTotals>2000</teamTotals>
</maxBetAmount>
</period>

[PPH]

I guess I was blind. Thank you very much Durito.

[durito]

they might not have been up yet for the today when you looked