baseball parlay runline and total

**LT Profits** · 06-28-12, 01:31 AM

If enough people bang the +1.5 / Under parlays in games with low totals, your local will stop accepting those parlays.

**Bluehorseshoe** · 07-08-12, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

If enough people bang the +1.5 / Under parlays in games with low totals, your local will stop accepting those parlays.

The last two years haven't been as good with these as you think.

**LT Profits** · 07-08-12, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by Bluehorseshoe

The last two years haven't been as good with these as you think.

I am traveling and don't have a database in front of me. How are you defining "low" total? Look at games with totals of 7 or less.

**Bluehorseshoe** · 07-08-12, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I am traveling and don't have a database in front of me. How are you defining "low" total? Look at games with totals of 7 or less.

I use to use 7 1/2 and under. Gave up on it.

**Bluehorseshoe** · 07-08-12, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by Bluehorseshoe

I use to use 7 1/2 and under. Gave up on it.

5-22 the last three weeks alone.

(I know that's a small window, but just to give you an idea.)

**LT Profits** · 07-08-12, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by Bluehorseshoe

5-22 the last three weeks alone.

(I know that's a small window, but just to give you an idea.)

Too small a sampling, take from beginning of last year. And remember that even 45% success rate is probably +EV.

**princecharles** · 07-09-12, 12:03 AM

LT, fav -11/2 parlay with over not as strong as dog w/under?
Thinking comparison to NCAAF.

**Bluehorseshoe** · 07-09-12, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Too small a sampling, take from beginning of last year. And remember that even 45% success rate is probably +EV.

Last year with totals of 7 or less....

38 wins...105 losses...7 pushes.

**mathdotcom** · 07-09-12, 09:43 PM

Pump your bookie in the ass until he bleeds

Ignore this horseshoe guy

**chunk** · 07-10-12, 04:17 AM

Apparently the circus has come back to town. I'm starving here.....give me something to chew on.

**LT Profits** · 07-10-12, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by Bluehorseshoe

Last year with totals of 7 or less....

38 wins...105 losses...7 pushes.

Seems to me there were a lot more than 150 7s or less last year. I'll see what I got when I get home Thursday.

**rsigley** · 07-10-12, 06:21 PM

last year
12 5.5
45 6
155 6.5
288 7

**subs** · 07-10-12, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by princecharles

LT, fav -11/2 parlay with over not as strong as dog w/under?
Thinking comparison to NCAAF.

i don't have the answer cos i don't have dumb ass locals, but should b really easy to find on:

sportsdatabase.com

if u have 2 dumb ass locals, and it pans out, y not play both sides?

Originally posted by mathdotcom

Pump your bookie in the ass until he bleeds

i'm so glad i made that picture in my mind

**Bluehorseshoe** · 07-11-12, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Seems to me there were a lot more than 150 7s or less last year. I'll see what I got when I get home Thursday.

The edge is with home dogs. That's where I came up with my numbers.

**arwar** · 07-13-12, 03:28 AM

correlated parlays

a lot of locals don't don't pay casino odds of 2.6/1 (which is 5'll get you/13). locals around here pay 6'll get you/14 (which is 2.333/1) which overrides any edge. i am sure all you sharp guys know this, but there may be some reading that aren't sharp.

**thepokergeek** · 07-13-12, 06:14 PM

how about the most obv play, road team -1.5 and over 5.5, 7.5 or 9.5. obv the lower the total there is more equity but there is still a positive expectation at 9.5 too