[ClimbSomeRocks]

Is it possible to have a parlay lose one leg and win the other leg (in a 2 teamer) less than 50% of the time? Consistently?

I'm looking into something that could be very profitable. Say my parlay is correlated with the game (ie: If duke can cover the spread, it will need to be a high scoring game, so I'll play duke -the points and the over) vs. if the other team covers the spread, it will likely be a defensive game so I'll play that other team and the under.

What I'm looking at is not to play one of each as I explained above, but instead to bet duke's spread, and the over 2.2 units to win 2 for both plays. Then also parlay the opposing team and the Under. This would pay out 13/5. so a 1.7unit bet on this parlay to win 4.4 units.

Total units wagered = 6.1
If both individual plays win, 4 units (and the original 4.4 units wagered) are payed out. 4units - 1.7unit parlay = a profit of 2.3units

If the parlay wins, 4.4 units (and the original 1.7units wagered) are payed out. 4.4 units - 4.4 units = even money.

This model could be modded to make the parlay and the individuals pay out the same, but I think it's better to have the individual bets pay out more.


What I need help for, is the math and the likelihood of losing 1 leg, and winning the other.
this split means there are still 6.1units wagered, but we only get a payout of 2 units. This is a loss of 4.1 units.

Can this model be made so to reduce the chance of this split in such a way that it will happen 33% of the time or less?

[masticore]

The chance depends what the chace of induvidal game...
example if you have 2 - 60% game's

.6*.6=36% chance it win
1-.36=64% it lose
lose both .4*.4=16%
win 1 and lose the other 2*.6*.4=48%

anysystem...as soon your prob to hit is bigger then your odds...then will you win money (in the long run)

[ClimbSomeRocks]

where did you get 60%? Is that assuming you are a 60% lifetime capper? I'd say my range is more like 56% - 60 %

[Dark Horse]

Read Win More, Lose Less by Don P.

Parlays and round robins can be extremely profitable, but if you have thrown all your plays on one 56-60% heap, you can't know if and when they're for you.

[masticore]

only took a easy example...of a chance of specific 2 games

another ex..(the principe is same)
we take 2 dices...u win on 3,4,5,6 loss on 1,2

chanse to "win" on first dice(the same the other)=2/3....66.67%

so "win" on both 2/3*2/3=4/9.....44.44% and loss 1-4/9=5/9....55.56%

lose in both "games" 1/3*1/3=1/9....11.11%
to lose in 1 "game" and win the other 2*1/3*2/3=4/9....44.44%

[That Foreign Guy]

So you avoid one correlated parlay by playing the opposite correlated parlay?

[masticore]

where did you get 60%? Is that assuming you are a 60% lifetime capper? I'd say my range is more like 56% - 60 %

if yoy play high ml fav....the your hit% will increse big time...

so you must see the chance of every game




mikke

[ClimbSomeRocks]

So you avoid one correlated parlay by playing the opposite correlated parlay?

Play 1 correlated parlay, and then also play the exact opposite of that correlated play but in single, regular wagers

[masticore]

Play 1 correlated parlay, and then also play the exact opposite of that correlated play but in single, regular wagers

Can you explain the math beheind it...I cant see the winning in it

[ClimbSomeRocks]

see the original post. The idea is for when you think there are two outcomes. Lowscoring and Team A winning vs High scoring and Team B wins (or covers).

Play your stronger lean as 2.2unit bets, for each one respectively. Then use a correlated parlay to cover your butt on the opposite end of the spectrum. Only way you lose is during a split.

[masticore]

So if I understand it right.....

there are 4 outcomes:

A A: win parlay lose both singels
B A: lose parlay win one single
A B lose parlay win one single
B B lose parlay win both single

....cant be that because this must be loosing...

if odds exactly +100 (I know we have the juice..)

A A: +100
B A: -100
A B: -100
B B: +100

so long term +-0...but now you must pay the juice

something I miss?



mikke

[ClimbSomeRocks]

Maybe just poor thinking on my part. I was looking to see if there was a way to reduce outcomes BA and AB to 33% of the time or less.

I think it would have to be very selective plays, however as I'm rethinking it, this might not work out. I was hoping for something that would basically be the opposite of middling, playing the two extremes. Would be fairly hard to cap though. so I'm thinking this won't work out...

[BettingGeek]

correlated parlay

[adryiel]

just a thought.......wouldnt it just be easier to keep track of over under trends and bet the team with thier respective over/under