Originally Posted by
bztips
Ok, my bad on what you said. Nevertheless, your assertion that you can identify a significant edge based solely on watching your favorite team is not very convincing. If that's the approach you're going to take, then for every occasion where you claim to be able to identify when players on your team are over- or underrated, it's just as likely that there are also players on the opposing team that the market may not be valuing properly.
Bottom line is you need to be able to set a line INDEPENDENTLY of the published line. I'd guess that's not what you're advocating. When you "know Lester has been less than impressive but squeaked out with a few lucky 2-run outings lately", do you automatically think you have an edge, regardless of whether the line is -130 or -140? If so, you have no chance of being successful in the long term.
The idea that you can "eyeball" what the correct line should be just by watching one team closely is ridiculous.